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The San Diego Padres will begin a best-of-5 Divisional Series with the Los Angeles Dodgers as the teams meet for Game 1 on Saturday at Dodgers Stadium. We're live from Chavez Ravine and sharing our NLDS odds series while making a Padres-Dodgers Game 1 prediction and pick.
Padres-Dodgers Game 1 Projected Starters
Dylan Cease vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Dylan Cease (14-11) with a 3.47 ERA
Last Start: Cease went five innings in his last regular-season start, allowing three earned runs on five hits, striking out four, and walking three in a no-decision against the Dodgers.
2024 Road Splits: Cease is 8-4 with a 3.83 ERA and one complete game over 19 outings away from Petco Park this season.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2) with a 3.00 ERA
Last Start: Yamamoto went five innings in his last regular-season outing, allowing two earned runs on four hits, while striking out six in a win over the Colorado Rockies.
2024 Home Splits: Yamamoto is 3-1 with a 3.88 ERA over 10 outings at Dodgers Stadium this season.
Here are the NLDS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NLDS Odds: Padres-Dodgers NLDS Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-182)
Moneyline: +118
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -138
Over: 7.5 (-122)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How to Watch Padres vs. Dodgers Game 1
Time: 8:38 PM ET/5:38 PM PT
TV: FS1
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres will have another opportunity to shock their divisional rivals and probably match up better against the Dodgers than they do the Philadelphia Phillies.
Fernando Tatis Jr. brings the energy and will look to continue doing it against the Dodgers. Substantially, he comes into this series batting .318 with seven hits, two home runs, five RBIs, and five runs throughout six playoff games. Tatis is also batting .266 with 61 hits, 37 RBIs, and 39 runs over 58 games against the Dodgers.
Tatis has some help, specifically from leadoff hitter Luis Arraez, who is batting .240 with six hits, now RBI, and one run over seven playoff games. Additionally, Arraez has struggled against the Dodgers, hitting .226 with 12 hits, five RBIs, and six runs over 14 games against the Dodgers. Jurrickson Profar has been solid throughout the postseason in his career, batting .266 with 18 hits, one home run, five RBIs, and seven runs over 2o games. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts will also bring a heavy prescience.
Cease will be the one to watch. Significantly, he has gone 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA over four games against the Dodgers. But Cease has struggled in his brief postseason history, going 0-o with a 10.13 ERA over two games. Plus, while bullpen arms like Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing, and Jason Adam have been reliable, the closer Robert Suarez has been a little shaky over the last month.
The Padres will cover the spread if their bats can make contact and prevent Yamamoto from getting into a groove. Then, Cease must avoid making mistakes and hand the bullpen a lead.
Why The Dodgers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Dodgers have waited for this moment, especially after being knocked out in the NLDS over the past couple of seasons. The one factor that can change that will make his postseason debut.
After spending many miserable seasons with the Los Angeles Angels, Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers hoping to play in October. Well, here we are, and it's about to get interesting. Ohtani will attempt to get the Dodgers over the hump while overcoming any issues he might have. Ohtani is 4 for 15 with two home runs and four RBIs over 17 plate appearances against Cease. However, he might not want to face Tanner Scott, a guy who he is just 1 for 9 against. Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Tescoscar Hernandez will also play pivotal roles in this game.
The Dodgers switched to Yamamoto instead of Jack Flaherty. However, he has struggled against the Padres, going 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA over two starts this season. It does not help that the bullpen is shaky and not very trustworthy right now.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
The Padres and Dodgers are meeting for the third time in the past five postseasons. Significantly, the Dodgers took the first series, but the Padres shocked the boys in blue in 2022, winning the NLDS 3-1. The Padres won the season series 8-5, including a 4-2 mark against the Dodgers at Petco Park and a 4-3 mark at Chavez Ravine.
The Padres are 85-79 against the spread this season, while the Dodgers are 80-82 against the odds. Also, the Padres are 49-31 against the spread on the road, while the Dodgers are 40-40 against the odds at home.
The Padres are a heavy-contact hitting team, which should benefit them as they face the Dodgers. Also, their pitching staff has been the fourth-best since the All-Star Break, with a 3.38 ERA. The Padres will utilize their pitching to hold down the Dodgers. Consequently, they will also do enough to stay in the game and possibly steal it. The Padres cover the spread.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: San Diego Padres +1.5 (-182)
