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It is win or go home in the ALDS as the Detroit Tigers face the Cleveland Guardians. It's time to continue our ALDS odds series with a Tigers-Guardians prediction and pick.
Tigers-Guardians Game 5 Projected Starters
Tarik Skubal vs. Matthew Boyd
Tarik Skubal (18-4) with a 2.39 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP
Last Start: Skubal went seven innings against the Guardians, giving up three hits and striking out eight. He took the no-decision, but the Tigers won the game 3-0.
2024 Road Splits: Skubal was 8-3 on the road with a 2.86 ERA and a .234 opponent batting average.
Matthew Boyd (2-2) with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP
Last Start: Boyd went 4.2 innings in his last start, giving up four hits and two walks. He would not give up a run, but take the no-decision as the Guardians lost to the Tigers.
2024 Home Splits: Boyd was 1-1 in four starts at home with a 2.25 ERA and a .205 opponent batting average.
Here are the Tigers-Guardians ALDS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
ALDS Odds: Tigers-Guaridans Odds
Detroit Tigers: -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline: -124
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-188)
Moneyline: +106
Over: 6 (-104)
Under: 6 (-118)
How to Watch Tigers vs. Guardians Game 5
Time: 1:08 PM ET/ 10:08 SM PT
TV: TBS
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Tigers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Tigers were 19th in the majors in runs scored in the regular season while sitting 24th in batting average, 29th in on-base percentage, and 22nd in slugging. Riley Green has led the way this year. He hit .262 in the regular season with a .348 on-base percentage. Green has 24 home runs, 74 RBIs, and 82 runs scored. Also entering the playoffs off a stellar year is Colt Keith. Keith has hit .260 this year with a .309 on-base percentage. He has 13 home runs, 61 RBIs and 54 runs scored. Rounding out the top bats this year is Matt Vierling. Vierling is hitting .257 this year with a .312 on-base percentage. He has 16 home runs, 57 RBIs, and 80 runs scored this year.
Andy Ibanez has led the way in the playoffs for the Tigers. He is hitting .250 with two doubles and three RBIs so far. Further, Kerry Carpenter is hitting well. He is hitting .250 with a .294 on-base percentage. Carpenter has a home run, three RBIs, and three runs scored. Jake Rogers is also playing well. In the playoffs, he is hitting .278 with a .381 on-base percentage. He has an RBI and three runs scored. Finally, Parker Meadows is hitting .240 in the playoffs. Meadows has a home run, an RBI, and three runs scored in the playoffs. The Tigers are hitting .226 in the playoffs with three home runs and 18 runs scored in six games.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
In the regular season, the Guardians are 14th in runs scored while sitting 22nd in batting average, 18th in on-base percentage, and 16th in slugging. Jose Ramirez has led the way this year. He is hitting .279 this year with a .335 on-base percentage. Ramirez has 39 home runs, 41 stolen bases, 118 RBIs, and 114 runs scored. Further, Josh Naylor has been solid as well. He is hitting .243 with a .320 on-base percentage. He has 31 home runs, 108 RBIS, and 84 runs scored. Rounding out the best bats this year was Steven Kwan. Kwan is hitting .292 on the year with a .368 on-base percentage. He has 14 home runs, 44 RBIs, and 82 runs scored.
David Fry has led the way in the playoffs. Fry has hit .273 in the playoffs with a .333 on-base percentage. He has a home run, five RBIs, and two runs scored in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Lane Thomas has been solid as well. He is hitting .267 with a home run, four RBIs, and a run scored in the playoffs. Jose Ramirez is the only other player with multiple RBIs in the playoffs. He is hitting just .143 with a home run and two RBIs plus two runs scored. Steven Kwan is still hitting well. He is hitting .500 but does not have an RBI. He has scored four times. The Guardians are hitting .214 in the playoffs with three home runs and 12 runs scored in four games.
Current Guardians have 82 career at-bats against Tarik Skubal. They have hit .220 against Skubal. Jose Ramirez has the most experience, going 9-24 with three doubles and a triple. Meanwhile, Austin Hedges has the only RBI against Skubal. He is 3-10 with an RBI. Finally, Josh Naylor is just 2-12 with a double.
Final Tigers-Guardians Prediction & Pick
Tarik Skubal has been amazing in the post-season already. He has pitched 13 innings in his two starts so far in the playoffs, going 13 innings, giving up seven hits and a walk. Skubal has not given up a run and struck out 14. Both offensive units have scored three runs per game in the playoffs so far. Still, some of the major players for the Guardians are not hitting well, and the Tigers have the better pitcher. The Guardians were the odds-on favorite to beat the Tigers in the ALDS, but the Tigers will be the ones moving on.
Final Tigers-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Tigers ML (-124)
