We’re here bringing you our predictions and picks for UFC Vegas 84 as we’re set for our Main Card action, featuring this next ultra-competitive fight in the Bantamweight (135) Division. No. 13-ranked Ricky Simon will defend his standing against MMA lab’s Mario Bautista. Check out our UFC odds series for our Simon-Bautista prediction and pick.

Ricky Simon (20-4) has gone an impressive 8-3 in the UFC since 2018. He was recently on a five-fight tear as he notched consecutive wins over opponents like Brian Kelleher, Raphael Assuncao, and Jack Shore. He ran into a brick wall in Song Yadong during his last fight when he was decisively stopped in the fifth round. He’ll be looking to put himself right back into the top-10 mix with a win here. Simon stands 5’6″ with a 69-inch reach.

Mario Bautista (13-2) has gone 7-2 in his UFC tenure since 2019. He’s been extremely active in his few years with the promotion and after suffering two losses early on, he’s won his last five consecutive fights heading into this one. His last fight was a dismantling of Da’Mon Blackshear as he got the unanimous decision win. He’ll stand to gain a ranking if he can come out of this fight victorious. Bautista stands 5’9″ with a 72-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 84 Odds: Ricky Simon-Mario Bautista Odds

Ricky Simon: -185

Mario Bautista: +154

Over 2.5 rounds: -195

Under 2.5 rounds: +150

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Why Ricky Simon Will Win

Ricky Simon was looking like a world-beater until Song Yadong was able to make him look human again. He has tremendous power for the weight class and he’s been improving with his accuracy each time he steps into the cage. He’s a pure wrestler by nature and it’s still the strongest aspect of his game, but Ricky Simon has done a great job of catching-up his striking and using it as a vehicle to advance his wrestling. Simon also fights with a crazy-high motor and will be eager to push the pace for all three rounds of this fight. If he can avoid the shots on the feet and find a home with his double-leg takedown, Simon should have the rightful advantage throughout this fight.

Ricky Simon was on a very dominant run prior to his loss and he was getting his wins in very aggressive fashion. On the ground, he’s a terror to deal with and he can find submission wins by muscling his squeeze alone. He should have a slight strength advantage over Bautista and it’ll be interesting to see how quickly he looks to engage in the wrestling. He clearly has issues with the quick striking of Song Yadong, so expect Simon to stay especially active and mobile on his feet during this one.

Why Mario Bautista Will Win

Mario Bautista is on a similar run of his own and we were slated to see him square off against the resurgent Cody Garbrandt during his last fight. However, a last-minute injury forced Garbrandt out of the fight and Bautista ended up fighting a much bigger underdog in Da’Mon Blackshear. Still, Bautista was able to get the job done and his last five outcomes indicate he’s clearly ready for a step-up in competition. This will be his toughest opponent to-date and he’ll have to get creative in finding this win. Bautista is very accurate with his strikes and will need to stay patient in finding Simon’s chin through his constant movement. Expect Bautista to start this fight slow as he tries to get the rhythm of Simon down.

To be successful in this fight, Mario Bautista will have to stay sharp in the striking and turn away Simon in the wrestling exchanges. Bautista doesn’t gain much from trying to grapple with Simon, so it’ll be in his best interest to get to his feet and keep this fight standing. From there, he’ll have a slight advantage having the faster hands, which could benefit him if he’s able to hold a clean pocket and stay in boxing range with his opponent. Bautista will have to move his head constantly and not allow Simon to catch any angles on him as he darts in range.

Final Ricky Simon-Mario Bautista Prediction & Pick

This should be a fun fight as both fighters are at the tops of their games right now. Ricky Simon is coming in off a grounding loss and it’ll be interesting to see how much he improves ahead of this one. If he can continue to evolve his striking and bring it up to speed with his grappling, he’ll become a tough opponent for anything to stop.

However, Mario Bautista has a decent takedown defense and it’s certain he’s been working on his grappling ahead of this one. It’s tough to imagine he’ll be willing to accept staying on his back for too long, so I like his chances to keep this fight at striking range as he slowly pick apart at Simon. Let’s ride with the underdog in Bautista for this one.

Final Ricky Simon-Mario Bautista Prediction & Pick: Mario Bautista (+154)