Western Michigan looks for the upset as they face number 25 Iowa. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Western Michigan-Iowa prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Western Michigan enters the game at 1-1 on the season. In week one it was a win over Saint Francis. It was a strong showing in the game, scoring three times in the first half, all on the ground to give them the lead. They would add two more scores in the second to walk out with a 35-17 win. The next week was a different store though. The game opened well with a 75-yard touchdown run by Jalen Buckley for a touchdown. Buckley would run for just 17 yards the rest of the game on seven carries, as Syracuse settled in. The Orange would score 48 unanswered points to take the 48-7 victory over Western Michigan.

Meanwhile, Iowa is 2-0 so far on the year. They opened up with a 24-14 win over Utah State. It was a game they were favored by 21 points, but while the offense started hot, scoring twice in the first quarter, they slowed down and managed just 10 points the rest of the game. Then, they faced rival Iowa State. In that game, they were aided by their defense. In the second quarter, Sebastian Castro returned an interception for a touchdown, putting Iowa up 17-0. The game would get close, but Iowa would hold on to win 20-13.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Western Michigan-Iowa Odds

Western Michigan: +28.5 (-110)

Iowa: -28.5 (-110)

Over: 42.5 (-110)

Under: 42.5 (-110)

How to Watch Western Michigan vs. Iowa

TV: Big Ten Network

Stream: Fox Sports App

Time: 3:30 PM ET/ 12:30 PM PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Western Michigan Will Cover The Spread

If Western Michigan is going to cover in this game, it is going to have to start with a sound running game. Jalen Buckley is the lead back for the Western Michigan Broncos. This year he had 38 rushes for 281 yards and scored twice. He has been getting solid blocking this year, with an average depth of first contact well beyond the line of scrimmage and he has been a big play threat all year. He had a 75-yard and 68-yard touchdown on the season. Still, that means 143 of his 281 yards, or half of them, have come on just two runs this year. Beyond those two runs, he is averaging just 3.83 yards per carry. If Buckley can get one big run in this game, and then increase his average just slightly, he could be enough to help Western Michigan cover.

The biggest help would not allow Iowa to stack the box, and Jack Salopek will be in charge of that. He is 33-48 on the year for 280 yards and a touchdown. He had not been great this year, throwing two interceptions and two other turnover-worthy passes on the season. Part of the issue has been pressure. So far this year, Salopek has dropped back 57 times, and been pressured on 16 of them. He has been sacked four times while scrambling away four times as well. Another issue has been the drops. Five passes this year have been dropped by Western Michigan wide receivers, over a ten percent rate.

One solution should be getting Malique Dieudonne more involved. This year he has been targeted seven times and come down with six catches. He has been reliable in the passing game, also coming down with one of two contested catches this year. Still, he is not doing much after they catch, with an average of just 3.5 yards after the catch, and they are not sending him downfield. His average depth of target this year is just 10.4 yards downfield, not enough to make big plays in the passing game.

Why Iowa Will Cover The Spread

For Iowa, the game all starts on defense. First, there is rushing the passer. Iowa is good at putting pressure on the opposing quarterback. Last game against Iowa State they pressured the quarterback 14 times in the game. Still, they did not come away with a sack in the game, but they did have a batted ball. Next is pass coverage. They have to cause turnovers, and make stops. The three starting corners did just that last game. Sebastian Castro, Cooper DeJean, and Deshaun Lees were targeted 24 times in the game with Iowa State. They allowed just 10 completions in the game and a combined 23 yards after the catch. The trio did allow a touchdown, but they also came away with an interception and made tackles causing four offensive failures on passing downs.

Finally, there is the run defense. Last game, it was not their best showing. Only one player had an average depth of tackle in the backfield, and that was Ethan Hurkett who had three tackles in the game. Further, they cannot miss tackles. In the run game against Iowa State, they missed nine tackles. They were able to make up for their mistakes though, and have 18 stops for offensive failures in the run game.

After that, Case McNamara can go to work. The last game was not his best. He went just 12-22 for 123 yards and an interception. He was pressured just nine times in the game and sacked once, so there is time to throw, but he is not making accurate passes downfield. It does help him that Iowa does have a solid running game. Jaziun Patterson was the top back last week, running for 86 yards and a score on just ten carries. He was great after contact, having 69 yards after contact, but most of those did come on his long 59-yard run in the game.

Final Western Michigan-Iowa Prediction & Pick

Western Michigan is going to have trouble scoring against this Iowa defense. Last week after the big play, Western Michigan was completely shut down. Still, they have shown in both games, they are good for a few big plays. That will be enough to get them some points and not put up a zero on the scoreboard. That makes the question, can Iowa score over thirty points? There is nothing in their offense the last two weeks to show they can. With that, take the Broncos and the points.

Final Western Michigan-Iowa Prediction & Pick: Western Michigan +28.5 (-110) and Under 42.5 (-110)