The Cleveland Guardians have been one of the best teams in baseball this season but desperately needed to improve their starting rotation at the MLB trade deadline. The Guardians addressed their need for starting pitching by bringing in veteran Alex Cobb. Unfortunately, the team could end up regretting that decision.
The Guardians lost ace Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery in April and outside of Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, the rotation has yielded uninspired results. Fifteen-year veteran Carlos Carrasco has produced -1.1 WAR in 20 starts for Cleveland this season. Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie and Gavin Williams have a combined -1.8 WAR in 2024.
With the best record in baseball entering play on Monday and a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central, the Guardians have serious postseason aspirations. But clearly the club needed to bolster the rotation at the trade deadline. While Cleveland’s bullpen is elite, featuring Reliever of the Year candidate Emmanuel Clase, and leading MLB in ERA, WHIP, batting average against, WPA and fWAR, the team’s starters have been far less effective.
The Guardians’ starters rank 24th in ERA (4.55), 27th in quality starts (30), 18th in strikeouts (535), 24th in batting average against (.253), 25th in WHIP (1.34), 24th in WPA (-1.70) and 29th in fWAR (3.7). The trade deadline presented the perfect opportunity to upgrade one of the team’s few weaknesses.
Credit Cleveland for recognizing the situation and attempting to address it by adding a veteran starter. Whether bringing in Alex Cobb was the right decision remains very much up in the air.
The Guardians grabbed Cobb from the San Francisco Giants who had signed him to a two-year, $20 million contract prior to the 2022 season. The deal included a $10 million team option for a third year, which the Giants exercised for 2024. Cleveland gave up 19-year-old pitching prospect Jacob Bresnahan and a player to be named later to land Cobb.
Though Bresnahan has pitched well in the low levels of the minors since being selected in the 13th round of the 2023 draft, this appears to be a solid deal for the Guardians. However, the jury remains out as Cobb has yet to throw a pitch for a big league club this season.
The 36-year-old veteran righty injured his hip last year with the Giants and underwent surgery to fix the issue following the 2023 season. While rehabbing his hip, Cobb needed to be shut down due to inflammation in his right shoulder. He was placed on the 60-day injured list on April 20 and has yet to make his 2024 debut.
Was Cobb the Guardians’ best option at the deadline?
Cobb has now made seven rehab starts as he works through his hip and shoulder ailments and prepares to take the mound in the majors for the first time this season, per a CBS Sports report. However, his progress was slowed most recently by a blister on his finger. Still, the Guardians issued an optimistic injury update with the belief that Cobb’s next start in the minors should be his final tune up before joining Cleveland’s rotation. However, that update was issued on August 1 and the team is still waiting for Cobb to return to action.
The 12-year veteran pitched fairly well for the Giants last season, going 7-7 with a 3.87 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and an ERA+ of 109. He made his first career All-Star game in his age-35 season. Over his career he’s posted a very respectable 3.85 ERA and a 1.276 WHIP with an ERA+ of 106. Essentially Cobb has been a slightly above average starter since debuting in 2011.
While the Guardians would love for Cobb to be a mid-rotation starter who can eat up innings and help keep some strain off of the bullpen, he hasn’t exactly been a workhorse of late. Last season Cobb pitched over 150 innings for the first time since 2018. And the injury issues he’s dealt with over the course of this season have to be somewhat concerning for the Guardians, who don’t really know what version of Cobb will take the mound for the team when he’s back at full health.
While Cleveland didn’t overspend for Cobb in sending San Francisco a Single-A prospect who was the 398th overall pick in last year’s draft, they’ve essentially landed a second-half rental making $10 million this season who has yet to throw a single major league pitch.
While Bresnahan could end up being a surprise future star, it’s not so much the deal itself that the Guardians could regret. It’s the fact that there were better options available on the market at the trade deadline and Cleveland failed to take advantage. For a team expecting to make a deep postseason run, the additions of Cobb and Matthew Boyd – who also has yet to make his season debut – don’t seem to significantly move the needle. Especially considering that the Guardians have performed so well this season in spite of their starting rotation. Adding the right starter would have made Cleveland a force to be reckoned with.
While it was unlikely that any team was going to be able to work out a deal with the Chicago White Sox for Garrett Crochet, other starters who were capable of making an immediate, significant impact were available or dealt at the deadline. And the Guardians missed out on an opportunity to truly bolster their rotation.
Although it would have cost more in the way of prospects, second-half rental pitchers like Jack Flaherty or Yusei Kikuchi could have become instant contributors for Cleveland. Flaherty, 28, is making $14 million this season before hitting free agency in 2025 and Kikuchi, 33, is making $10 million before entering free agency next year. They’re both in similar contract situations as Cobb but could take the mound right away for the Guardians.
Erick Fedde would have been a very good option for Cleveland as well and the team would have had an extra season with him in the rotation at a reasonable rate. Fedde, 31, is owed $15 million through 2025 before hitting free agency. Although, to be fair, the White Sox were unlikely to deal Fedde to a division rival. Even Cobb’s teammate on the Giants, Blake Snell, who wasn’t traded at the deadline, would have been a better option for the Guardians. Although he would have been far more costly with a $32 million salary for 2024 and a $30 million player option for 2025.
Time will tell if Cobb makes an impact for Cleveland this season and helps the team in the playoffs. But the Guardians could ultimately regret making a deal with so much uncertainty tied to it when better options were available.
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