Although the ultimate goal is winning, realistic expectations must be assigned to some franchises. Fans want to know their club is on an upward trajectory more than anything, so player development and a competitive baseball product can be acceptable goals depending on the team. The Boston Red Sox should have the resources and prestige to avoid such a label, but they are firmly under this category as spring training begins.
While a playoff berth is attainable due to an abundance of offensive talent (in MLB and minors), it is unlikely following another offseason in which ownership has largely avoided the free agent frenzy. There are still All-Stars available, but as I have already alluded to, aggressive spending is not something that can just be expected from this organization anymore.
And so, Red Sox Nation will tentatively hope for the best but also be prepared to find a silver lining in this season if the team's record proves to not be enough of a hook. And that is where I come in. Regardless of how murky the present may look, there are multiple reasons for this wary fan base to be excited about the future of Boston baseball.
With everyone arriving for spring training on Monday, it is a good time to dive into our bold predictions for the 2024 Red Sox.
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Red Sox Opening Day roster will include players in trade rumors
Boston traded veteran relief pitcher John Schreiber to the Kansas City Royals for young right-hander David Sandlin on Saturday afternoon. I believe that will be the last swap the front office completes before the start of the regular season, despite trade rumors revolving around closer Kenley Jansen, outfielder Jarren Duran and new designated hitter Masataka Yoshida.
The disconnect between ownership and fans somehow got even bigger this winter, with chairman Tom Werner's “full throttle” comments proving to be nothing more than lip service to this point. It feels downright foolish to place faith in the Sox brass right now, but surely they know the possible impact that dealing away an All-Star closer and two capable hitters can have on attendance going forward.
If the Fenway Sports Group is not going to send a strong message of commitment to the city via free agency, the least it can do is not send one that further reinforces the belief that winning baseball games isn't the top priority in 2024. Trading either of these two contributors for prospects would dare fans to check out before the first pitch is thrown.
Jansen is on an expiring contract and Liam Hendriks was just signed, so trade conversations may have to take place ahead of the deadline. But the Sox's lone representative in the 2023 Midsummer Classic gives the bullpen important stability and currently increases their chances of vying for an American League Wild Card slot. Management should realize that too, especially now that spring training is already underway.
Triston Casas will be starting first baseman in 2024 All-Star Game
A Red Sox bold predictions piece simply can't be written without Triston Casas being featured. His second-half emergence was a bright spot of a 78-84, last-place finish in 2023 and could have fans saying “at least we have him” once again in 2024. If Boston is going to stun pundits and odds makers this season, the 24-year-old slugger will be a major reason why.
Casas overcame a prolonged slumber to start the year and transformed into one of the best hitters in the MLB last summer. He finished with a .263 batting average, 24 home runs, .490 slugging percentage and an impressive .856 OPS in 132 games played. The first baseman will not merely take a step forward, though. I believe there is enough evidence to suggest he will start for the AL in the MLB All-Star Game.
2023 AL batting champion Yandy Diaz earned the honors last year with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. securing a roster spot as a reserve. The former significantly eclipsed his lifetime averages after the age of 30, which doesn't happen often, and the latter has not come close to his absurdly productive 2021 campaign over the last twos seasons. Don't let his idiosyncrasies throw you off, Triston Casas is primed for an explosion.
Red Sox OF Jarren Duran will steal 40 bases in 2024
Many fans assumed Jarren Duran's big league prospects were on the precipice of extinction after a poor showing in 91 games from 2021-22, but he refused to go into that dying light and back to the minor leagues. The 27-year-old hit .296 with 34 doubles in just 362 plate appearances last year. Assuming he is healthy, an everyday outfield role should be in his grasp.
With more chances, Duran should continue to produce in the batter's box and on the base paths. He took advantage of the new rules and stole 24 bags while getting caught only twice in 2023. Manager Alex Cora is trusting the former seventh-round draft pick to carry more responsibilities at the top of the lineup, which will incentivize Duran to be even more aggressive as a runner.
His elite speed can allow Boston to set the tone early and ease the burden of its pitching staff. This team's hypothetical path to October will go heavily through run production. Duran should blaze his way to second base at a high rate as long as he builds off his breakthrough 2023 season.
I expect Jarren Duran's name to be mentioned in contract extension talks by the end of this upcoming season and eventually become the latest player to turn down an offer. The Red Sox can surely exceed expectations this year, but ownership is unlikely to surprise the baseball world.
Until it does, Boston cannot be the playoff-or-bust team fans were accustomed to watching for decades. You might just have to begrudgingly accept these bold predictions as the peak of the 2024 campaign.
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