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The Pacers host the Bucks on Tuesday for Game 5, with a 3-1 lead! The Bucks need a win to stay alive, while the Pacers can close out the series and advance if they pull off a win in this game. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Bucks-Pacers prediction and pick.
The Bucks finished the season with a 48-34 record and looked great to end the year. However, this series has been a struggle. Giannis Antetokounmpo makes everything work for the Bucks, but he can't do it alone. Lillard only played in two games and is believed to be out even longer thanks to an injury in Game 4. The rest of the roster needs to step up if the Bucks hope to stay alive.
The Pacers are 50-32 and have looked dominant in this series against the Bucks. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton make up one of the best duos in the NBA this season. They also have a lot of depth, with multiple players capable of hitting shots across the roster. They have more ways to beat you compared to the Bucks. They can get a big win and advance to the next round with a win in this game.
Here are the Bucks-Pacers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Bucks-Pacers Game 3 Odds
Milwaukee Bucks: +8 (-108)
Moneyline: +285
Indiana Pacers: -8 (-112)
Moneyline: -355
Over: 222.5 (-110)
Under: 222.5 (-110)
How To Watch Bucks vs. Pacers NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 6:00 pm ET/3:00 pm PT
TV: NBA TV
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Bucks Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Bucks have talent on this offense, and the results in the postseason have been solid at best. They are fifth in scoring with 108.3 points per game, sixth in field-goal percentage (45.3%), and ninth in three-point shooting (35.3%) from behind the arc.
This offense has been solid with balance, with four total players averaging over double digits. Antetokounmpo makes almost everything work with the Bucks on offense. He is the scoring leader, averaging 33.8 points per game. He is also tied for the team lead in steals with Kevin Porter Jr., with five per game. Gary Trent Jr. and Bobby Portis are up next, averaging 15.3 and 14 points, respectively.
This offense is handicapped without Lillard, and they ned more from the roster to show up and help Antetokounmpo. The balance needs to be there against a Pacers defense that is not all that impressive in its own right.
The Pacers have been unimpressive on defense, but it didn't matter due to how well their offense is playing. They are 12th in scoring defense, allowing 108.3 points per game; 11th in field-goal defense, 45.3%; and eighth in three-point defense, 35.3%.
Haliburton is the rebounding leader, averaging 6.8 per game, while Siakam is second, averaging 6.5 per game. Their perimeter defense has also been solid at best. Three players average at least one steal, and Siakam is the steals leader, averaging 1.5 per game.
The Pacers have playmakers on their roster, but this defense has been inconsistent. It's hard to trust this defense consistently, but without Lillard, this is a decent matchup for this defense.
Why the Pacers Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Bucks' defense was great during the regular season, but has struggled during the postseason. They are 14th in points allowed with 117.5 per game, 16th in field-goal percentage defense with 50.9% from the field, and 14th in three-point percentage with 40% from behind the arc.
They still have one of the best front lines in the NBA with Lopez, Antetokounmpo, and Portis. Antetokounmpo leads the team in rebounding with 14.3 per game, and Portis is second, averaging 7.8 per game. Lopez leads the team in blocks with 1.3 per game. Their on-ball defense has also been solid. Gary Trent Jr. leads the team in steals with two per game.
The Bucks have the talent to play well on defense, but have struggled against the Pacers. This defense needs to step up against Indiana.
The Pacers' offense has been one of the most reliable all season and has been great in the postseason. They are third in scoring, at 117.5 points per game, first in field-goal percentage, 50.9%, and third in three-point percentage, 40%.
Six different Pacers average more than double digits, and Siakam stands out as the most consistent scorer, averaging 22.3 points per game. Myles Turner is second, averaging 15.8 points per game, and Haliburton rounds out the top three with 15.5 points per game. Haliburton is also the engine that makes the entire offense go, as the assists leader with 12.2 per game, which is also the best in the league.
Siakam and Haliburton have been great in this offense. Bennedict Mathurin and Turner might be the Pacers' difference-makers in this game and the entire series against the Bucks. This is a big matchup against a defense that has been playing great recently.
Final Bucks-Pacers Prediction & Pick
The Pacers should win, cover, and close this series at home. The Bucks are outmanned and can't stay alive without Lillard. Pacers win and advance.
Final Bucks-Pacers Prediction & Pick: Indiana Pacers -8 (-112)
