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The Warriors host the Rockets in Game 6 with a 3-2 lead! The Rockets can extend the series, or the Warriors can close the series out. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Rockets-Warriors prediction and pick.
The Rockets were the biggest surprise in the NBA, but they have their backs against the wall against the Warriors, down 2-3. They are coming off a giant win in Game Five. They have a big duo of Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, but Fred VanVleet and Amen Thompson also need big games if the Rockets can stay alive and extend the series to a Game Seven.
The Warriors have the Rockets on the ropes in this series, up 3-2. The Warriors need a win at home to feel comfortable and advance. Steph Curry still makes everything work for the Warriors, but Jimmy Butler is the X-factor, and they need both to show up if they are to advance. They have the experience, which is a massive factor in this matchup against a younger team.
Here are the Rockets-Warriors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Rockets-Warriors Game 3 Odds
Houston Rockets: +5 (-112)
Moneyline: +176
Golden State Warriors: -5 (-108)
Moneyline: -210
Over: 203.5 (-110)
Under: 203.5 (-110)
How To Watch Rockets vs. Warriors NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 9:00 pm ET/6:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Rockets Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Rockets' offense has talent and depth, but has been inconsistent in the postseason. They are 10th in scoring, at 105.4 points per game, seventh in field goal percentage, 45.4%, and seventh in three-point percentage, 37.3%.
Five players are averaging over double digits this season, showing they have some offensive balance. Sengun is the best scorer in the postseason, averaging 20.8 points per game. VanVleet is the second-best scorer, averaging 17 points per game, and Dillon Brooks rounds out the top three with 15 points per game. Jalen Green and Amen Thompson are next and have been solid, but haven't had a giant impact. Sengun is the best passer, averaging 5.2 assists per game.
The offense depends on Sengun, Green, and Van Vleet the most. Green needs to be the biggest difference maker in the backcourt because he has the most potential. They need him if they are going to extend this series.
The Rockets' defense was one of the best in the NBA all season and has been great in the postseason. They are fifth in points allowed, 103.6 points per game, third in field goal defense, 43%, and eighth in three-point defense, allowing 35.7% from behind the arc.
Sengun has been great as Houston's frontcourt leader. He does everything for the Rockets on offense and defense. He is the best rebounder on the team, averaging 11 per game. Three players are averaging at least one block and are tied for the team lead with one per game. The on-ball defense has been a massive key with four players averaging at least one steal, and Sengun being the leader, averaging 1.8 per game.
This defense has playmakers and is one of the best in the NBA. They have the physicality, a massive key to extending the series for Houston.
Why the Warriors Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Warriors' offense has been inconsistent most of the year and has been more of the same in the postseason. They are 12th in scoring at 103.6 points per game, 14th in field-goal percentage at 43%, and ninth in three-point percentage at 35.7%.
Five Warriors are averaging double digits. Curry is the key to this offense, averaging 23.4 points per game, and is the engine that makes them go, averaging 6.2 per game. Butler is next in scoring, averaging 15.8 points per game. The rest of the roster needs to step up and take some pressure off of Curry and Butler, despite how well they are playing.
Since Butler joined the Warriors, the offense has looked much better. Still, they need to iron out some issues, especially with the chance to close the series.
The Warriors' defense has stayed consistent all year and was huge in Game 2. They are sixth in points allowed at 104.8 per game, fifth in field-goal percentage defense at 44.1% from the field, and 10th in three-point percentage at 37.3%.
Despite some size issues, this frontcourt has been solid down low and has depth. Kevon Looney, Draymond Green, and Butler significantly contributed to the Warriors' rebounding. Green is the best rebounder, averaging 5.6 per game. Then, Green is tied for the team lead in blocks with Braxton Key, with one per game. Four players are averaging at least one steal on the perimeter, proving that their on-ball defense has been a giant strength. Green is averaging two per game as the steals leader.
This defense has been highly consistent, and it will need to be the best unit on the floor if the Warriors are to win and advance to the next round.
Final Rockets-Warriors Prediction & Pick
This game comes down to trust, experience, and who is playing at home. The Rockets got a big win in Game Five, but asking them to win in San Francisco is another thing. The Warriors win and cover to advance in the postseason.
Final Rockets-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Warriors -5 (-108)
