One of the hardest things to do in sports is overcome early-season adversity. The Week 11 Sunday Night Football game features two teams who were brought to their knees in the first month of the NFL season but are now playing meaningful games in November. This prime-time meeting will be especially critical for the Denver Broncos (4-5).
Although they are riding high after upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, the incoming Minnesota Vikings (6-4) cannot be taken lightly. Joshua Dobbs plays with heart and guts, the defense has surrendered 20 points or more just one time in their five-game winning streak and TJ Hockenson is doing an excellent job at finding open space.
Translation: Denver is going to have its hands full this weekend. And yet, there should be multiple reasons for fans to keep smiling when the clock hits zero. With the season arguably on the line, we are going to do our best to successfully predict the Broncos' Week 11 showdown with the Vikings. Let's ride.
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Russell Wilson throws for at least 250 passing yards
Russell Wilson has cleared 200 passing yards just three times this season. The two occasions he exceeded 300 came in a shootout loss to the Washington Commanders and an embarrassing 70-20 stinker versus the Miami Dolphins. Denver has been at its best when Wilson operates more as a game manager who can still make clutch plays late in the game. But on Sunday, I think he concocts the perfect formula.
Wilson can have a big day in the air while still leading his team to victory in Mile High. Minnesota's defense has clamped down on opposing offenses of late, but take a closer look at those quarterbacks. All of them come with questions about their competency, experience or health (Derek Carr). And none of them are borderline Hall of Famers.
Now, it goes without saying that Wilson is not the same QB who won a Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks, or the one who carried that same team after its dominant defense faded. But he is undeniably re-discovering his game under head coach Sean Payton.
The 34-year-old is completing almost 68 percent of his passes and has sneakily thrown 18 touchdowns (tied for third in NFL). Perhaps most importantly, Wilson has only four interceptions on the year. A dysfunctional unit, in which much of the blame fell on his shoulders in 2022-23, is now averaging a passable 21.8 points per game.
I expect him to keep progressing when the Vikings come into town. Despite their recent success, they have surrendered the 10th most passing yards this season, per StatMuse. Russell Wilson will click with wide receiver Courtland Sutton (career-high seven touchdowns) and put the defense on its heels.
Broncos defense holds the Vikings to less than 25 points
We have already mentioned how different Denver's offense is from last year's, but unfortunately, the same can also be said for the defense. The team is giving up a league-worst 27.6 points per game in 2023. Obviously, the Dolphins' 70-point bombardment is going to really skew those figures, but it had been a poor effort through the first few weeks just the same.
That changes on Sunday night. While the Vikings have scored 31 and 27 points in Joshua Dobbs' two outings, a road game in high altitude seems foreboding for a team that is still without superstar Justin Jefferson. Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has made the necessary adjustments and has his guys locked-in.
The feel-good story of Dobbs' arrival in Minnesota will feature its first truly rough chapter. Denver allows more receiving yards to tight ends than any other team, so it would be foolish to assume that TJ Hockenson is going to be held in check. He will do his damage and the Broncos will bend, but the defense will not break.
More specifically, I see former All-Pro safety Justin Simmons being an individual standout in this one.
Javonte Williams finds the end zone
It has been a grueling road back to the Broncos' backfield for Javonte Williams. He looked to be one of the most promising young running backs in football before he suffered a torn ACL early in the 2022-23 season. Admittedly, he has not generated the same productivity or explosiveness this year, but as is the case for Russell Wilson, this Vikings game feels like a good bounce-back spot for the former North Carolina star.
While it will be tough for Williams to carve up Minnesota on the ground- he struggled with a bigger work load the last two weeks and is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry, he should have at least one opportunity to score his first rushing touchdown of the season. If Wilson can move the chains like I am projecting, the 23-year-old RB will enjoy more red-zone looks.
We all know how effective he can be as a pass-catcher, but Williams also has the ability to break off a big rushing play. Furthermore, he is due for a score. Yeah, I'm going to be that guy.
The law of averages will even out eventually (he did not have a rushing TD in four games last season, either), and this Week 11 matchup is a good time for it. Williams and the Denver Broncos as a whole are primed to halt the Minnesota Vikings' scorching momentum. By Monday morning, something tells me that many fans will be boarding the Sean Payton hype train.
If they haven't already.
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