We're still a few months away from the return of college football, but the anticipation is slowly building across the country with spring practices in the books. There's plenty of optimism surrounding the Ole Miss football team with head coach Lane Kiffin and Heisman candidates Jaxson Dart and Quinshon Judkins leading the Rebels back into relevance. Below, we continue our college football odds series with an over/under win total prediction for the Ole Miss Rebels.
Ole Miss climbed its way to the No. 7 spot in the country with a 7-0 record in mid-October last year but fell apart down the stretch as the schedule got much tougher, with hard-fought losses against Alabama and Mississippi State and ugly blowout defeats at the hands of Arkansas, LSU, and Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl.
The Rebels have had a lot of turnover in the offseason, but they've also picked up plenty of talent through the transfer portal. That includes two quarterbacks in former five-star recruit and LSU transfer Walker Howard and 2021 All-Big 12 standout Spencer Sanders, who led Oklahoma State to a 31-12 record as a starter.
Lane Kiffin's excited about the very competitive QB room, but he's gone out of his way to praise the “much improved” Jaxson Dart, who is widely expected to reclaim the role as the Rebels' starting quarterback. Dart, a former USC transfer, threw for 2,974 yards with 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while adding 614 yards and a score on the ground. But he'll need to continue to progress on the big stage. In the Rebels' five losses last year, Jaxson Dart threw just six touchdown passes with five picks.
Here are the latest college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Football Odds: Ole Miss Over/Under Win Total
Over 7.5 Wins: -134
Under 7.5 Wins: +110
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Why Ole Miss Could Hit The Over
The Rebels should be playing with a chip on their shoulders after the way their 2022 season ended. Their roster is stacked after picking up a handful of notable transfers and putting together the 28th-best recruiting class. Despite the amount of recent turnover, a healthy bulk of their starters are still returning on both sides of the ball.
Already regarded as a top 25 team in our way-too-early college football playoff rankings heading into the summer, the Rebels have their sights set on taking a big leap after making three consecutive bowl game appearances in the first three seasons under Lane Kiffin.
Averaging a whopping 33.4 points per game last season, Ole Miss's offense shouldn't be an issue, pending a good bill of health. The offensive line should be a strength up front, as four starters return to the lineup.
The Rebels will be without their top two receivers from last year, as Malik Heath was a priority undrafted free agent signing for the Green Bay Packers, while Jonathan Mingo—a second-round pick of the Carolina Panthers—has a legitimate shot to be the rookie receiving yards leader.
Nevertheless, seniors Jordan Watkins and Dayton Wade return, ready to step into more prominent roles. Ole Miss also picked up Louisiana Tech transfer Tre Harris, who impressed with 65 catches for 935 yards and 10 touchdowns as a first-team all-conference selection and redshirt sophomore last year.
Quinshon Judkins, who Mingo described as a “once-in-a-lifetime” type of player last year, set program single-season records for rushing yards (1,567) and rushing touchdowns (16) while earning first-team All-SEC honors as a true freshman.
Why Ole Miss Could Hit The Under
Based on our rankings, Ole Miss is slated to face four ranked opponents (and three of the top six teams) this year, so it's not exactly the safest bet across the college football landscape to take the over on Ole Miss's over/under prediction.
The Rebels' defense, which surrendered 35 points per game over the final seven contests last year, will be put to the test early and often this season against Tulane, Alabama, and LSU in September, along with Georgia in November.
Alabama fans will advise you to temper your expectations and encourage you to book your therapy sessions in advance of watching the Rebels' new-look defense under new defensive coordinator Pete Golding.
And while Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State and Texas A&M have also dealt with some challenges this offseason, all four programs could pose some real obstacles as potential sleeper teams in the SEC.
Nevertheless, the Rebels should have one of the top rushing offenses in college football after finishing third in the country with 256.6 yards per game on the ground last season. They could use some additional depth in the backfield, but Quinshon Judkins looks poised to steal the show in the SEC and nationally on a weekly basis this season.
Final Ole Miss Over/Under Prediction & Pick
Currently facing the sixth-best odds to win the SEC and 19th-best odds to win the national championship, Ole Miss is well-equipped to handle the challenges on its schedule and produce a third straight eight-plus win season. As the season progresses, health, depth, and leadership will be key factors for Ole Miss's over/under odds.
Final Ole Miss Over/Under Pick & Prediction: Over 7.5 Wins: -134
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