College Football is right around the corner with nearly 100 days remaining until the start of the 2023 season. Consequently, FanDuel has us covered with a plethora of College Football win total over/unders for teams across the country. Below we continue our College Football odds series with an Alabama Football over/under win total prediction, odds, and pick.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Alabama Over/Under Odds

Over 10.5 wins: +142

Under 10.5 wins: -176

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Why Alabama Can Win 10.5 Games 

Alabama finished with a stellar 11-2 record last season. However, they were held out of the College Football Playoff for just the second time since 2015. Their two losses last year both came on the road to strong teams as losses to Tennessee and LSU are nothing to be ashamed of. Additionally, they proved capable of outputting vintage ‘Bama wins. The Crimson Tide man-handled both Arkansas and Mississippi State in addition to picking up tight wins over Texas and Ole Miss. Although only nine starters return, Alabama possesses elite recruits across the board. That said, they face a ton of question marks entering the season and they are surely a team to continue monitoring throughout the summer and preseason.

Perhaps the biggest uncertainties for this Alabama team come via the coaching staff. After losing last year's quarterback and both coordinators, Alabama may look a lot different this year. The Crimson Tide poached Tommy Reese from Notre Dame to fill the OC role. Reese served as Fighting Irish' offensive coordinator from 2020-22. During that time, ND ranked 30th, 20th, and 41st in total offense. On the defensive end, Alabama hired 39-year coaching veteran Kevin Steele to become the next DC. Steele most recently served as Miami's defensive coordinator but previously served under Nick Saban in three separate tenures. Both coordinators are widely respected across the College Football landscape and have a ton of talent to work with.

While their new coaching staff looks solid, the biggest hurdle to Alabama eclipsing 10.5 wins likely comes via their quarterback situation. With Bryce Young in the NFL, the Crimson Tide appear to have a three-man battle for the starting quarterback position. Last year's backup, Jalen Milroe, is a former four-star recruit while Ty Simpson was the No. 4 quarterback in the 2022 class. However, both players struggled in the Spring Game.

That prompted Alabama to add former Notre Dame quarterback Tyler Buchner to the mix. Buchner is a former top-10 quarterback prospect who opened as Notre Dame's starter in 2022 before going down with an injury in Week 2. He returned for the postseason – winning MVP of the Gator Bowl thanks to throwing for 274 yards and accounting for five total touchdowns. All three candidates possess a ton of talent but it remains to be seen which, if any, of them translates that onto the field.

Why Alabama Can Not Win 10.5 Games

Alabama hit this over last season but finished on the outside looking into the College Football Playoff. Despite ranking fourth in total offense last season, they finished with two losses thanks to the gauntlet that is the SEC. Their defense may have finished ninth in points allowed, but they gave up 84 points in their two losses against elite offenses. Additionally, they only return nine starters from last year's team. Although Alabama recruits as well as anyone, the SEC is unforgiving for young players. With a similar schedule in 2023, it seems like a lot to ask for Alabama to repeat last year's win total with quarterback uncertainty and defensive question marks.

Looking at their 2023 schedule, Alabama can only afford a single loss if they want to hit the over. That looks unlikely considering they face five teams ranked inside ESPN Preseason FPI Top 25. They get No. 5 Texas, No. 16 Ole Miss, No. 12 Tennessee, and No. 4 LSU at home. They would need to go at least 3-1 in those games in order to hit the over. However, Alabama also travels to take on No. 19 Texas A&M in a road matchup. With an inexperienced quarterback, it seems farfetched to expect Alabama to escape those five matchups with just a single loss.

Final Alabama Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

Alabama had a “down year” in 2022… and still won 11 games. While they may appear weaker on paper, this is still Nick Saban's Alabama we're talking about. Although two one-score losses kept them out of the College Football Playoff last year, I expect a bounce-back season for the Crimson Tide. Look for a rejuvenated Crimson Tide team to crush this over in 2023.

Final Alabama Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 10.5 (+142)