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The Dallas Cowboys have had an excellent season overall in 2023, securing the No. 2 seed in the NFC and setting themselves up nicely for a deep postseason run. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, things may not be as rosy as they appear. Dallas has two major issues that could easily sink the team's playoff hopes.
The Cowboys have looked unstoppable at home while looking like a bottom-five team on the road. They also struggle with turnovers. The good news is that their turnover issues largely pop up when the team is playing on the road, which may explain why they struggle so much away from home. If the team can fix their turnover problem, Dallas may be able to improve its struggles on the road.
Let's take a closer look at the Cowboys' potentially fatal playoff flaw ahead of their wild card matchup with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
A tale of two teams
The 2023 season has been a tale of two teams for Dallas. When they are playing at the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium, the Cowboys look like they are the best team in football without a doubt. They average 37.4 points per game at home and have enjoyed numerous blowout victories.
Unfortunately, Mike McCarthy's team looks just as bad on the road as it looks good at home. The Cowboys' adventures on the road hit a nadir when they traveled to Buffalo and got absolutely demolished by the Bills, losing by 21 points. They are averaging just 23.3 points per game on the road, two touchdowns fewer than their home average.
The bad news for Dallas is the team will need to play at least one game away from Jerry World, as the Super Bowl will be played at a neutral site. The Cowboys struggled on the road against regular season opponents, and it will only add to their troubles when they face an elite team on the road in the later rounds of the playoffs—or with the Vince Lombardi Trophy on the line, should they advance to play in Las Vegas.
Dallas may have to travel to San Francisco
The most likely path for the Cowboys involves a matchup with the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
If this scenario plays out, Dallas will have to overcome its demons and find a way to win in a hostile environment. In order to come away from San Francisco with a victory, they’ll need to rely on their stars and limit their turnovers.
Cowboys will need to rely on their stars
If Dallas is to overcome struggles away from home en route to a Super Bowl victory, the will need to rely heavily on their star players, namely quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.
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In that blowout Week 15 loss to the Bills, Prescott threw for just 134 yards and one interception without any passing touchdowns. To put it bluntly, that is simply unacceptable from a franchise quarterback and those numbers will not cut it if Dallas wants to succeed in the postseason.
Prescott will need to put the team on his back and throw for close to 300 yards per game to lead his team to victory in the playoffs. Doing so will open up the field for running back Tony Pollard by forcing opposing teams to sell out in order to stop the pass. With teams unable to stack the box, there will be more running lanes for Pollard to find and exploit gaps in the defense.
Dak Prescott’s splits tell a familiar story
At home, Prescott has thrown for nearly 430 more yards than he has on the road despite attempting 14 fewer passes. He has an astounding 22:3 touchdown to interception differential at home, but that drops to just 14:6 on the road.
Limiting turnovers is critical
The touchdown to interception differential may provide interesting insight into what is ailing the Cowboys on the road.
Typically in the NFL, the team that wins the turnover battle has a significant advantage in terms of winning the game. Because there is so much parity in general at the highest level of football, protecting the ball (or forcing your opponent into mistakes that lead to turnovers) will often provide a team with a near-insurmountable edge.
Turnovers impact a game in many ways. They can flip the field position battle, giving one team a distinct advantage while forcing the other team to go the length of the field to score. They can flip the time of possession battle, allowing one team to have its offense on the field far longer. The best defense is a good offense, and typically the team that wins the time of possession battle is significantly more likely to win the game. There is often a correlation between turnover margin and time of possession, with the team that wins one also winning the other.
The Cowboys turn the ball over too much on the road, and that likely accounts for why the team has struggled so much looking dominant at home. Dallas will need to fix the turnover problem to improve its performance away from AT&T Stadium, and this will largely fall on Dak Prescott's shoulders.
