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The New York Mets are in position to reach the MLB Postseason for the second time in three years, but they'll need to close strong to hold off the Atlanta Braves. Entering play on Monday, the Mets are 87-69, tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card spot.
By virtue of MLB tiebreaker rules, the Mets would be the 5 seed in the National League if the postseason began today. As of now, that would put them on a collision course with the San Diego Padres in the first round, with the winner getting the top-seeded Los Angeles Dodgers.
While both the Padres and Dodgers would present major hurdles as the Mets seek their first championship since 1986, that may be the team's preferred path through the National League.
The alternative would be a first-round matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers with the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies waiting in the division series. The Brewers, though just two games better than the Mets, are built in a way to give New York fits, while Philadelphia is probably the best-equipped team in the National League to make a deep run.
The Brewers can wear down the Mets' bullpen
The Mets and Brewers haven't met since the season-opening series in March, which Milwaukee swept. But there's no use reading into that at this point. They'll also meet in Milwaukee to end the regular season, which could present a weird situation of six straight games between these teams at American Family Field, with three being playoff games.
That's not what New York should want. The Mets' potentially fatal flaw could come from their bullpen — one that is solid in the back end but prone to giving up too many walks or having bouts of ineffectiveness.
The Brewers draw the third-most walks in the Majors, trailing only the Yankees and Dodgers.
With the exception of Phil Maton, who has enjoyed a season renaissance since joining the Mets mid-season, even the team's high-leverage relievers have control problems. Jose Butto has a 13.1% walk rate and Reed Garrett's isn't much better at 11.7%.
The problem runs even deeper. The Brewers lead the Majors in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.02). In the playoffs, where pitchers are on a shorter leash anyway, that increases the likliehood that Carlos Mendoza will have to dig into his bullpen earlier than he would otherwise want. And while the back-end of the pen has been strong in the second half, the Mets aren't equipped to get four or five innings out of their relief pitchers three days in a row.
The good news for the Mets is that the front end of their rotation tends to give them length. Then again, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino don't exactly have sparkling postseason track records. If one of them exits early, who can Mendoza rely on to keep the Mets in it through the middle innings?
The Phillies are the most complete team in the National League
Because the Mets aren't going to be one of the top two seeds in the National League, there are no ideal matchups in the National League Division Series. They'll be underdogs regardless. But the Dodgers might be a little easier to take down right now than the Phillies.
That's through no fault of LA's. Injuries have simply ravaged their rotation to the point that it's hard to even guess how Dave Roberts will arrange his starters in a five-game series. They were supposed to have Tyler Glasnow back for the playoffs, but now he is done for the year. The same appears to be the case for Gavin Stone. Clayton Kershaw could still return, but even if he does, there's no reason to believe he will be anything close to vintage Kershaw. Meanwhile, Walker Buehler has been ineffective and Landon Knack has made a grand total of 13 MLB appearances.
Compare that to the Phillies, who will trot out Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the first two games, with Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez to follow. All have ERAs of 3.55 or better, while Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. And a weird but potentially significant quirk: the three best pitchers in all of baseball, by ERA, at night are Wheeler, Sanchez, and Suarez. There are very few scenarios where a Mets vs. Phillies playoff game would be during the day.
Both the Phillies and Dodgers boast potent offenses, with LA finally bringing the Shohei Ohtani show to the postseason. But the Mets have one of the best lineups in the game as well and can keep up in a slugfest. If you believe good pitching beats good hitting, however, pray for the Mets to draw the Dodgers in the NLDS.
