It is win or go home as the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the New Orleans Pelicans. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Thunder-Pelicans prediction, pick, and how to watch.

The Pelicans have re-gained their form after a January tumble in which the team went 7-19 in January and February. After starting 18-8, the Pelicans were 31-34 on March 6th and in danger of missing the playoffs and play-in tournament. They finished strong though, going 9-3 down the stretch to grab the nine seed and host the Thunder. The Thunder won their last two games to secure the last spot after the Mavericks went 2-8 down the home stretch. They hope to continue their march toward the playoffs in this win-or-go-home game.

Here are the Thunder-Pelicans NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel

NBA Odds: Thunder-Pelicans Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder: +5.5 (-110)

New Orleans Pelicans: -5.5 (-110)

Over: 228 (-110)

Under: 228 (-110)

How To Watch Thunder vs. Pelicans

TV: ESPN

Stream: ESPN+

Time: 9:00 PM ET/ 6:00 PM PT

*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread

Shai Gilgeous-Alenxander called out the “haters,” on their way to this game. He should get some MVP consideration for his performance this year. While only playing in 68 games due to injury, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.4 points per game, with 4.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. This helped pace an offense that ranked fifth in the NBA in points per game, with 117.5. They did this simply by the pace of play, averaging 92.6 field goal attempts per game, which was tied for the lead in the NBA.  This is furthered by the fact that they only shoot 46.5% from the floor, 24th in the NBA, and averaged 1.12 points per possession, which is 14th in the NBA. This is a volume-shooting team that scores sheerly on getting more shots up than the other team.

The defense has not been stellar this year. They are 19th in the NBA giving up 116.4 points per game, and allowing opponents to shoot 35.8% from three-point range. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 1.1 points per game, which ranks them 14th in the NBA. The biggest area of concern for the Thunder has to be on the glass. This year they averaged 43.7 rebounds per game but lost the rebound battle by an average of 2.9 rebounds per game, which was 27th in the NBA. They also need to take care of the ball better, as they averaged 3.6 turnovers more per game than opponents, 29th in the NBA.

Rookie guard Josh Giddey is the teams leading rebounder and does not play the traditional role of a primary rebounder. His last ten games have seen him perform better than normal in the rebounding department, with 8.4 rebounds per game, a full .5 rebounds per game more than his season average. Against New Orleans, he has struggled though. In his four games, he averages just 7.3 rebounds and has seen his turnovers go up by nearly two turnovers per game. If the Thunder is to win this game, they need to limit the turnovers and get a few more rebounds to create extra possessions for their high-volume shooting offense.

Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread

The Pelicans started the season great, but that was with Zion Williamson. The Pelicans hoped to have him back for this game, but Zion will still be out. When Zion went down, the Pelicans were 23-14, and the Pelicans sat in 3rd in the Western Conference. Then they had to learn to play without Zion. By March 11th, the Pelicans has tumbled to 32-35 and sat 11th in the Western Conference. They figured it out though and got back to the eighth spot before Minnesota took over on the last day of the regular season.

Brandon Ingram has been a major part of that turnaround. On the season, Ingram averaged 24.7 points per game but missed all of December and most of January. Since then Ingram has taken off in replacing Zion. Since February 1st, Ingram is averaging over 28 points per game, 6.6 assists per game, and 5.75 rebounds per game. All of those totals are higher than his season average.

The Pelicans have also been led by defense and rebounding. On the season, they average 1.1 points per possession, which is good for 6th in the NBA. They are overall, ninth in points per game against at 112.5 per game. They do this by slowing down the pace of play in a game, allowing just 86.6 field goal attempts per game, which is 7th in the NBA. On the glass, they are 7th in the NBA in rebound differential, averaging 1.9 more rebounds per game than their opponents. If they can play at their pace and control the glass, they will win this game.

Final Thunder-Pelicans Prediction & Pick

One team throws up a bunch of shots and tries to outscore their opponents due to straight-volume shooting. The other team plays solid defense and makes sure their opponents get as few shots as possible. This is a clear contrast of styles in this game. The two biggest areas of difference are rebounding and turnovers. While the Pelicans do turnover the ball more than they force turnovers, it is not nearly at the rate of the Thunder. They also out-rebound teams at a much better clip than the Thunder, which should allow them to control the pace of play. The Pelicans move on off a strong performance from Ingram, and the Thunder being the off-season.

Final Thunder-Pelicans Prediction & Pick: Pelicans -5.5 (-110)