With the series knotted up at 2-2, the Utah Jazz are set to travel to Dallas for Game 5 against the Mavericks in their first-round NBA Playoffs matchup. With a pivotal game on the slate for Monday night, we're back with our NBA odds series, featuring our Jazz-Mavericks prediction, pick, and odds, which we have laid out below.
The Jazz edged out a 100-99 victory over the Mavericks in Game 4, evening out the series before they set off back to Dallas for Game 5. Each team managed to steal a win on the road through the first four games of the series, and now the Mavs will look to defend their home court and take a 3-2 lead.
Luka Doncic made his coveted return to the series in Game 4, scoring 30 points and grabbing 10 rebounds in the loss. Doncic, who missed Games 1-3, shot 11-for-21 from the field, including 4-for-10 from 3-point range. All five of the Mavericks starters recorded double-digit scoring numbers, with Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock, and Dwight Powell all contributing 11 points. Jalen Brunson, who was coming off a historic night of his own in Game 3, put up 23 points and 5 rebounds.
As for the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson led Utah in scoring in the win, dropping 25 points on 9-of-16 shooting from the field. Donovan Mitchell struggled from the field, shooting 7-for-21 including 2-for-10 from deep en route to a 21-point outing. He added 7 assists in the win and grabbed 6 rebounds. Rudy Gobert provided his usual dominance in the rebounding category, ending the night with 17 points and 15 rebounds.
With all that in mind, here are our Jazz-Mavericks predictions, picks, odds, and more.
Here are the Jazz-Mavericks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Jazz-Mavericks Odds
Utah Jazz: +3.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks: -3.5 (-110)
Over: 212.5 (-110)
Under: 212.5 (-110)
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Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
Utah has already stolen a game in Dallas this series and will look to do it again on Monday night. Of course, Doncic wasn't available for that game, and now that he's back in action, the Jazz will have a far tougher time looking to win on the road. If the Jazz are able to put the clamps on Doncic, they'll have a fighting chance. Of course, Brunson is a threat to go off any given night, and Bullock and Finney-Smith can heat up from 3-point range at a moment's notice, so defending the perimeter will be crucial for the Jazz in Game 4.
Utah has a handful of scorers capable of providing big numbers. Donovan Mitchell is a threat for a massive game each night, capable of filling it up from beyond the arc and also getting to the basket and inflicting damage inside the paint. Jordan Clarkson and Bojan Bogdanovic are also capable scorers and have flexed that throughout the series.
Furthermore, with Rudy Gobert locking down the interior and providing Utah with sound defense in the paint and potential for second-chance opportunities on offense, the French center will, as usual, play a pivotal role in the Game 5 showdown. His defensive nature could be a major deciding factor in the outcome of this one and could help Utah keep things close.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The Mavericks have their best player back in action, and he'll be making his 2022 home playoff debut on Monday night. The crowd will be backing Doncic as he looks to give Dallas a lead in the series, and if he has a big game, it could be a nightmare scenario for the Jazz.
In just 34 minutes in his return to action in Game 4, Doncic put up 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists. He's capable of providing a triple-double each and every night and is a constant threat to put up 30+ points. He fills up the stat sheet and commands the attention of the defense in ways that enable his teammates to get open looks. If Finney-Smith or Bullock are hot from 3 early, they could inflict some serious damage.
Additionally, maintaining the defensive pressure on Donovan Mitchell will be critical for the Mavs. Mitchell has struggled to get his shot going all series. In total, Mitchell is 40-for-101 from the field across his first four games, including an abysmal 8-of-34 from 3-point range. If Dallas can continue to smother him and force him to take contested shots, they'll have a much better chance at taking home a win, and covering the spread.
Final Jazz-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
With the series tied heading into Game 5, we're expecting Doncic to put on a show in front of the Dallas crowd and lead the Mavericks to a win. The Jazz will look to keep things close, but the tandem of Doncic and Brunson should be able to provide enough cushion for Dallas to cover the spread at -3.5.
Final Jazz-Mavericks Game 5 Prediction & Pick: Mavericks -3.5 (-110)
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