A week ago, LSU and Florida were set to meet in a battle of top-15 teams. The No. 13 Gators spoiled that matchup after being upset by USF in Week 2 and were promptly knocked out of the AP Top 25. The Week 3 meeting will now feature No. 3 LSU trying to hold its spot atop the SEC and the national rankings.
The Gators weren’t supposed to be here this soon. The loss to USF sent shockwaves across the country, as that Week 2 game was supposed to be one of Florida’s safest wins from its daunting schedule. Instead, it could set off a lengthy losing streak that threatens Billy Napier’s future in Gainesville.
This will serve as a revenge game of sorts for LSU. The Tigers went into Gainesville last season ranked and with College Football Playoff aspirations on the line, only to be upset 27-16 at The Swamp. That loss ended any chance at a playoff berth.
This year, the Tigers have every advantage, including the backing of Death Valley, one of the most feared venues in college football. The Gators haven’t won in Baton Rouge since 2016 and own just two wins there in the past 20 years.
Still, regardless of records, rankings or recent upsets, this remains a marquee SEC matchup that could be one of the best in Week 3. Or maybe it won’t.
LSU defense causes D.J. Lagway, Gators offense to underperform again
If you asked any Florida fan what they were excited about this season, it was the emergence of quarterback D.J. Lagway. The former five-star recruit has carried major expectations ever since signing with the Gators. Last year, fans only got small glimpses of him — whether he was stuck behind Graham Mertz or sidelined with injuries. This season, he’s finally the full-time starter.
Lagway and the Gators had a smooth warm-up against Long Island in Week 1, but the offense was completely stifled in Week 2 against the Bulls. Even though Lagway completed 69.7% of his passes, he threw for just one touchdown with one interception. Florida managed 355 yards of total offense but converted only 4 of 12 third downs.
While the USF defense is shaping up as one of the better units in the country, they might be nothing compared to what Florida will face against LSU on Saturday. This is the same team that went on the road to Clemson and held the Tigers to just 10 points.
Napier has already been pressed again on whether he’ll continue to call plays, and he confirmed he will. It might not matter who’s dialling them up against LSU’s nasty defensive front. This matchup looks set to be a long evening for Lagway, Napier and the Gators.
Garrett Nussmeier throws for at least 300 yards, 2 touchdowns
Against USF, Florida’s defense allowed just 18 points, but it also gave up 263 passing yards and a touchdown to Byrum Brown. Now the Gators face a much bigger challenge in Heisman Trophy hopeful Garrett Nussmeier.
In his one true test so far against Clemson, Nussmeier looked the part, throwing for 232 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. But those who have followed the senior quarterback know he’s capable of much more. Last season, he had eight games with 300 or more passing yards. Against Florida, he seems poised for his first 300-yard outing of the year, along with his first multi-touchdown performance.
Gators still have trouble with penalties
One of the things that killed the Gators last weekend against USF was penalties, none worse than Brendan Bett’s ejection for spitting on a Bulls player. In total, Florida committed 11 penalties for 103 yards. That can’t happen — especially when heading into Death Valley, where the crowd always plays a factor.
The problem isn’t new, either. Last season, the Gators ranked 69th nationally with 5.8 penalties per game, and they averaged seven over their final three games.
It’s hard to imagine Napier cleaning all that up in just a week, particularly with the hostile environment awaiting them at LSU.
LSU covers spread, beats Gators by 2 scores
Again, it all goes back to last week’s loss for Florida, which was supposed to be one of its surest wins of the season. Now the schedule turns daunting, with three straight top-10 opponents, beginning with the No. 3 Tigers.
It’s always possible Napier could somehow rally the troops and put together a run like last year, potentially saving his job in the process. But much of the goodwill he built has evaporated, and even another loss or two could signal the end of his tenure in Gainesville.
Meanwhile, Brian Kelly is back in the good graces of Baton Rouge for now after earning his first season-opening win at LSU. With SEC play beginning, he’ll need to keep that momentum going and avoid another upset like the one Florida pulled off a year ago.
Overall, LSU looks sharper, deeper and better coached than Florida. The current line at ESPN BET favors the Tigers by 7.5 points. With Nussmeier performing at a high level and a swarming defensive front ready to pressure Lagway, this matchup shapes up as a two-score advantage for LSU.
