NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 11: An AFC Championship preview?

NFL Week 11 again brings us a riveting Thursday Night Football divisional matchup between bitter longtime rivals, the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. While both these teams are playoff-bound, this game is for control of the vaunted NFC East. Moreover, it should be an incredible quarterback matchup between the $255 million man Jalen Hurts and rookie sensation Jayden Daniels. So, with that, let’s get into the ClutchPoints NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column.

As we’ve been preaching in this space for the last several weeks, it’s trusting your instincts time in the NFL until at least Thanksgiving. That’s easier said than done, though. Last week, we trusted that the Arizona Cardinals are underrated and the New York Jets are overrated, and that paid off.

However, we also didn’t fully trust our tried-and-true new coach bump theory, which backfired as the New Orleans Saints caught that wave and rode it to a win over the maddeningly frustrating Atlanta Falcons.

So, this week, we will continue to shout down our demons, listen to our better angels, and keep up our recent winning ways.

In Week 11, we say hello again to old friends like the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Seattle Seahawks while waving goodbye to the Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the jetlagged Carolina Panthers and New York Giants.

On the NFL Week 11 slate, the league goes back to a familiar cadence with a Thursday game, eight 1 p.m. ET games, three games in the late Sunday window, a Sunday nighter, and a Monday night affair.

The National Football League is a week-to-week league, so past performance never guarantees future results. That said, we are en fuego heading into this NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column! This past week, we were a stunning 11-3 straight up and a very respectable 8-5-1 against the spread. And with that, we remain crushing it while just picking the winner (91-61), and at 71-80-1 versus the number, we continue to climb back to even on the season.

With that, let’s get right into the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds.

Previous Weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

We don’t have to wait long for the first game of the week candidate, as the Commanders and Eagles kick off the NFL Week 11 slate with a bang. Historic rivals with two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league? Yes, please!

While this should be an excellent game to watch, the Eagles are on a five-game win streak, and in those games, the closest game was a five-point victory. The hook makes me a little nervous here, but with the way both teams are playing right now, this seems closer to a touchdown game than a field goal one. The Eagles should win and cover here.

Pick: Eagles 24-20

UPDATE: The Eagles made us sweat in the first half but Saquon Barkley ultimately gave us the win to start Week 11.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-13)

Vegas is no longer messing around, and we see our first near-two-touchdown spread in a while. The Lions are the much better team and are at home, so while the winner doesn’t seem like it will be in question, the final score always is.

The Jags have just two wins on the season, but six of their seven losses have been by five points or fewer. That said, there are two factors here that suggest the team’s second blowout L. First, it’s Mac Jones, not Trevor Lawrence, starting. Second, the only huge loss of the season was a 47-10 beatdown by the Bills, which is a team on par with the Lions. That means Jared Goff and company will cruise on Sunday.

Pick: Lions 31-10

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears

The Bears are a sinking ship, and the final torpedo to the hull of that boat was the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary in Week 8. Sure, the team has a new offensive coordinator this week, but that’s not enough to make Caleb Williams and company into a new group.

With the Packers coming off a bye, they should be rested and ready to teach their young division rival a lesson on what a more advanced (and better-coached) rebuild looks like. This game should be the final act of the Matt Eberflus Era in Chicago, but knowing the Bears owners, it probably won’t be.

Pick: Packers 34-17

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at New England Patriots

In the last few weeks, the Patriots have two wins and an overtime loss. It’s safe to say that Drake Maye is officially a real NFL prospect, if not a real NFL QB already. That said, the five games he’s started have come against the Texans, Jaguars, Jets, Titans, and Bears, which isn’t exactly the ’27 Yankees lineup.

The Rams should be a better team than pretty much any of the five listed above, but laying an egg on Monday Night Football last week and losing to the Dolphins throws that into question. This is pretty close to a must-win game for LA, as they have the Eagles, Bills, and 49ers coming up over the next four weeks. Maybe we shouldn’t still have confidence in the team here at the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column, but for one more week, we will.

Pick: Rams 21-14

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-1)

These two teams both spend a lot of money (especially on their quarterbacks) yet are wildly disappointing this season. The Saints got their new coach bump last week and beat the Falcons, but those things often only last a game. This week, they get a Browns team coming off a bye, which is a different story.

The Browns with Jameis Winston certainly don’t inspire much confidence either, but this pick is simply a vote of confidence in Kevin Stefanski being a better coach than the Saints' interim headman, whose name is… A.) Pete Cartwright, B.) Steve Johnson, or C.) Darren Rizzi? And if you know which one of those is the actual interim coach and which names are made up without looking it up, big kudos to you!

Pick: Browns 18-16

Minnesota Vikings (-6) at Tennessee Titans

There are a lot of machinations you can go through while thinking about this game. The Vikings haven’t looked as good in the second month of the season as they did in the first month, and the Titans can always sneak up on a team at home under the right conditions.

That said, the position of the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column at this point is to keep it simple. The Vikings are a much better team than the Titans, so the odds are that they will win convincingly. That is all.

Pick: Vikings 21-12

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5)

Both the Colts and Jets organizations are a tirefire right now, mostly thanks to their respective 22- and 40-year-old quarterbacks. With Anthony Richardson coming back in for Joe Flacco, Indy brings back a QB who quit on his team just a few weeks ago because he was tired. The Jets have their own set of problems, but Aaron Rodgers at least never did that.

The Colts outside in November against a team that at least has enough talent to be good is a mismatch on paper. It will also be a mismatch on the scoreboard as the Jets have at least one more moment in the sun during the Aaron Rodgers Era.

Pick: Jets 26-15

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Ravens are the better overall team here, but this game presents a multitude of issues for the Super Bowl contender. It’s a division rivalry between two teams and coaches who know each other incredibly well, and the Ravens tend to play to their level of competition.

This should be a field goal game or less, which is why if you can get the hook somewhere, then take it. Even without the extra half-point, the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column will still take the Ravens to win but the Steelers to cover.

Pick: Ravens 24-23

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)

With Tua Tagovailoa back, the Dolphins picked up a win on Monday Night Football and looked… OK, doing it. The offense is still not the high-flying unit that they’ve been in the past, but the defense is improved, healthier, and playing pretty well. On the other side, the Raiders are coming off a bye, which is about the most positive thing you can say about them.

There’s a chance that the Raiders are just truly awful this season the Dolphins are finding their way, which would lead to the big score discrepancy Vegas seems to be predicting. However, what seems more likely to the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column is that the Dolphins win but by a smaller margin than advertised.

Pick: Dolphins 22-17

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

The NFC West is incredibly tight heading into Week 11, as all four teams are separated by just one game in the loss column. That means the winner of the Seahawks-49ers tilt gets a leg up on the competition, as all four teams will likely go to the wire for the division crown.

There is some momentum here to take Seattle, at least with the points, as they are coming off their bye, and the 49ers didn’t look great last week. That said, Christian McCaffrey has another week back, and it’s unlikely Jake Moody will miss three field goals again. Let’s go with the 49ers to win and cover at home.

Pick: 49ers 35-23

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

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The Falcons may be the most infuriating team in the NFL this season. They have all the offensive weapons in the world of professional quarterbacks, and yet they always seem to drop the ball when you least expect them to. The Broncos are riding high off nearly beating the Chiefs, but that ending has to stick with them a bit.

This is truly tough to pick, as we have no idea which team will show up on either side. Sure, the Broncos are feisty, but the Falcons are more talented. The biggest reason we’ll pick the Falcons here is that they seem to always rebound nicely from their terrible losses, so maybe that’s just their pattern this season.

Pick: Falcons 19-17

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2)

After nailing the Chiefs' narrow win and the Bills score exactly, the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column has a pretty good handle on these two teams. The Chiefs own the Bills when it counts, but while this means a lot to Buffalo, Kansas City’s only Super Bowl each season is the actual Super Bowl.

The Chiefs have limped through the last few games, and it is time for their undefeated streak to end. Ultimately, this will be good for the Chiefs as it puts less pressure on them as the season goes along. They know they’ll see the Bills again in the playoffs, and that’s when they’ll no longer be the underdog.

Pick: Bills 26-23

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

The Chargers have put together a nice three-game win streak, even though it’s come against the Saints, Browns, and Titans. With Jim Harbaugh on the sideline and Justin Herbert under center, this team has big things on the horizon.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals, on the other hand, have lost two of their last three, but those were against two of the best in the league, the Eagles and the Ravens. Burrow is the kid who waits to do his homework until the bell between classes. Well, the bell has rung, and the next period starts in five… that means it's Burrow Time.

Pick: Bengals 31-30

Houston Texans (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are a mess, and despite some recent struggles, the Texans are starting to figure a few things out despite their midseason rash of injuries. Houston is still a bit of a disappointment, but they are not in the midst of a season from hell like Dallas is. If this wasn’t the most famous team in America, there would be a 10-point spread here. Therefore, in the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column, we’ll take the Texans without a second thought.

Pick: Texans 25-9

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