NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 6: A historic week of home dogs

From the NFC South last week, we move to the NFC West to kick off the NFL Week 6 calendar as the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks both look to stave off a two-game losing streak after suffering upsets in Week 5 to the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants, respectively. So, which team avoids the skid? We’ll predict that and more here in the ClutchPoints NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Last week was a week of bad beats here in the NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column. It started with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers choking away a win and a cover on Thursday night, and the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, and Pittsburgh Steelers all gagged in late-game situations that could have helped us either straight up or against the spread. So, what does the NFL Week 6 slate have in store?

NFL bye weeks roll on in Week 6, so while we welcome back the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tennessee Titans, we bid a brief farewell to both undefeated teams, the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings, as well as the banged-up Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins.

With that, the NFL Week 6 schedule once again includes the Thursday game, a London tilt at 9:30 am ET on Sunday, six 1 pm ET games, four games in the late Sunday window, a Sunday nighter, and a Monday night clash.

Despite a few bad beats, we had a good week picking games in Week 5, going 7-7 straight up and 8-6 against the spread. Heading into the NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column, we continue to build back, now at 43-35 taking winners and 34-44 versus the Vegas number.

With that, let’s get right into the NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds.

Previous Weeks: Week 1| Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers are a better team than the Seattle Seahawks. That said, over the last two-plus seasons, there have been two 49ers teams. There is the juggernaut team with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, and the average team whenever one or more of these players are MIA. With McCaffrey out so far this season, the 49ers simply haven’t been a great team.

Don’t get it wrong. The Seahawks have their issues, too. But on a Thursday night, short week, in Lumen Stadium, we’ll take the points here in the NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column and pick the Seahawks to cover and get the W.

Pick: Seahawks 23-21

UPDATE: The first home dog of the week went down with the away team covering as the 49ers beat the Seahawks 36-24.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2)

The Bears are surprisingly better than expected this season and the Jaguars are surprisingly worse, so this line does make some sense. That said, this game is in Jacksonville, London, which makes it a home game for the Jags, and not just in name only.

Caleb Williams has shown some flashes in recent weeks against bad teams and the Jaguars are definitely that. Still, he’s a rookie playing across the pond for the first time in the other team’s home away from home. Give me Trevor Lawrence and the Jags here.

Pick: Jaguars 26-16

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

This DMV showdown matches up two of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Ravens have won three in a row now and the Commanders are on a four-game win streak. However, this line seems to suggest that the oddsmakers think the Ravens are an elite team, while they are still not sold on the Commanders being an every-week threat with a rookie QB.

That’s fair, for sure, but here’s the thing about the Ravens. They don’t blow teams out, save for the Bills game, who they are uniquely built to beat. Outside of that game, the Ravens have one seven-point loss that they almost tied at the end in Week 1, a field-goal loss, and two field-goal wins. Baltimore may take this, but not by a touchdown or more. And don’t sleep on Washington. Jayden Daniels and company are legit, so let’s take the upset here in a shootout.

Pick: Commanders 35-34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints

The Buccaneers let us all down last week when they choked up a fourth-quarter lead, let the Falcons get to overtime, and lost in overtime on a walk-off touchdown to a wide receiver, KahDarel Hodge, on approximately zero fantasy teams. That’s just how the NFC South goes, though.

This week, with Derek Carr likely out, the Buccaneers should be by far the better team, so even on the road we’ll take them to win and cover here in the NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Pick: Buccaneers 20-10

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

This line is going to continue to creep up, as the NFL betting world obviously sees this as a massive Eagles blowout over the quitting Browns and their train wreck of a QB, Deshaun Watson.

The Eagles are not a perfect team by any means this season and have little to instill confidence against good teams. Luckily for Eagles Nation, the Browns are anything but a good team, so look for the Birds to get right this week against a sinking ship.

Pick: Eagles 28-12

Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Tennessee Titans

As usual, Joe Flacco has come in and got the job done. Yes, he’s 1-1 overall and 0-1 as a starter after losing to the Jaguars last week, but he still put up 34 points in the loss. The problem for the Colts is that the injuries are mounting up, and the team will be without star WR Michael Pittman Jr. this week as well as Jonathan Taylor being out.

For the Titans, they are coming off a bye, and Will Levis has actually been pretty good with extra time to prepare throughout his career. This will probably be a close game either way, but let’s take Levis and the points here.

Pick: Titans 18-17

Houston Texans (-7) at New England Patriots

This game could be a great one in the history of the Patriots franchise, as Drake Maye is on track to make his first professional start. That said, it won’t be a good day in the context of the 2024 season, as the Texans should make life tough for the rookie.

The Texans suffered a big blow, losing Nico Collins last week, but they should still have more than enough firepower to get by the Pats. This will be an interesting game for sure, but not a particularly close one.

Pick: Texans 27-15

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

This is an interesting spread, as the Cardinals seem like one of the more underrated teams in the league this season and the Packers may be a bit overrated. The Cardinals’ three losses are to the Bills, Commanders, and Lions, who may be three of the top teams in the league this year. Jordan Love, on the other hand, only has one win, and that came against the MASH unit Rams team.

You never know which Kyler Murray is going to show up from week to week, but if the good one comes to Green Bay, look for Arizona to not only cover the spread but also win this one outright.

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Pick: Cardinals 21-20

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos

Jim Harbaugh! After a bye! Justin Herbert is healthy(-er)! This is what the conventional wisdom is related to this game, but the Chargers are also on the road, in the Mile High City against a team that has an excellent defense and a young quarterback who is starting to figure things out.

Despite wins over the Raiders and Panthers, the Chargers have not proven that they can win a tough game yet, and that’s exactly what this game is. Until LA proves that they can face adversity and overcome it this season, we’ll take the other team here in the NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Pick: Broncos 17-14

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

Yes, the Steelers have a good defense, but they can’t score. The Cowboys gifted them multiple chances last week, and Justin Fields and company just couldn’t capitalize. The Raiders aren’t a good team, but this week they are shaking things up and starting Adian O’Connell, which could give them some additional juice.

Giving a team points on the road doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense for a team that can’t score, so the Raiders, who are 1-2 on the road and 1-1 at home should be able to push themselves to the winning side of the ledger in Las Vegas and win this game outright.

Pick: Raiders 13-12

Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Carolina Panthers

As mentioned above, the NFC South is the hardest division to pick in football. On any given Sunday, any of the four teams can look pretty good or pretty bad, with the Panthers having the least variance, mostly looking bad. Atlanta’s three wins, though, have come by one, two, and six points (but tied after regulation). Carolina is not a good team by any means, but with Andy Dalton, they’ve looked at least somewhat competent.

It wouldn’t be a shock if the Falcons laid waste to the Panthers, which they should do, However, six points is a lot for this team, despite the massive talent gap. Plus, this is the biggest public game on the schedule this week, with 90% of the money coming in on the road team. Let’s take the home dog in that case to at least cover.

Pick: Falcons 23-20

Detroit Lions (-3) at Dallas Cowboys

There were a ton of home dogs in the NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column, and we took our fair share of them to at least cover if not win. However, this season the oddsmakers have gotten this type of line right more often than they’ve gotten it wrong. Home dogs are 8-12 against the spread on the season.

In this game, the Lions are coming off of a bye and the Cowboys are coming off a Sunday night game that stretched into Monday morning due to lightning delays. While the Cowboys often play better at home, that hasn’t bared out this season, with the team going 0-2 in Big D in 2024. That’s why the Lions roll here.

Pick: Lions

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New York Giants

Speaking of home dogs, if the spreads stay as they are, the 10 home dogs this week will be the most since 1972, according to Action Network. Here is another one where the line is in favor of the away side.

While the Giants have looked good of late, the Bengals offense has, too. All the underlying numbers show that Joe Burrow and company are one of the best units in the NFL. That said, the defense is bad, which accounts for the 1-4 record. This game could be a shootout, and in that, we’ll take Burrow over Jones every time.

Pick: Bengals 35-30

Buffalo Bills (-2) at New York Jets

This is a huge game for the Bills who have suffered back-to-back losses after looking like the best team in football for the first three weeks of the season. They face a Jets organization in turmoil that just fired its head coach and on Thursday demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.

Josh Allen is coming off two bad games and may have been concussed last game, despite playing all but one offensive snap. While this seems like a great spot for a bounce-back game for the Bills, Allen often struggles against the Jets defense and here at the NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column, we do believe in the one-week new coach bump.  That’s why we’ll take the Jets at home here.

Pick: Jets 28-27

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