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This Jacksonville Jaguars team will always be remembered for its historic comeback win against the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Led by QB Trevor Lawrence and coach Doug Pederson, they were able to rally from a 27-point deficit. That is now the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history. As a result, they will now face the top-ranked Kansas City Chiefs after a week of rest. That said, let's look at our bold predictions for the Jaguars as they face the Chiefs.
The Jaguars and the Chiefs met earlier in the season in mid-November. The Chiefs came out on top with a 27-17 win in that one. That outcome gave the Jaguars their seventh loss of the season. It is worth mentioning, however, that the Jaguars have progressed significantly since that match.
For our Jaguars-Chiefs preview and full Divisional playoff predictions, listen below:
For the Jaguars to come out victorious in this rematch, it is vital that their offense avoids errors and wins the turnover battle. The Chiefs are expected to score, yes. However, if the Jaguars can maintain possession and control the pace of the game, they have the potential for an upset.
That said, here are four predictions for the Jaguars in the playoffs as they face the Chiefs in the Divisional Round.
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Dougie 🅿️ spittin’ BARS 💰@tech_mahindra | #IWATJ pic.twitter.com/jhc6P5BX8T
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) January 18, 2023
4. Jaguars pass rush catches Mahomes
Remember that the Jaguars possess one of the strongest defensive lines in the league. They finished the regular season with the fourth-highest pressure rate (25.1 percent) and also had the sixth-highest pass-rush grade as per PFF (77.8 percent).
However, during their previous matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs earlier this season, the Jaguars defensive line struggled. That was one of only two games where the team failed to record a single sack. This was mainly due to the team's strategy of rushing only four players, combined with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes' exceptional ability to evade pressure.
Looking ahead, if the Jaguars plan to drop seven players back in coverage to prevent big plays, they will need to generate more pressure up front. We believe the Jaguars will not advance to the AFC Championship if they fail to record a single sack again.
As such, the onus is on guys Josh Allen and Dawuane Smoot to step up. We expect them to finally catch Mahomes at least once in this game.
3. Travis Etienne goes over 100 yards on the ground
Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. had a strong performance in the Wild Card Round win over the Chargers. He gained 109 yards on 20 carries and added one reception for 12 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He also had a notable 25-yard gain on a crucial fourth-down play with under two minutes left in the game. Despite limited opportunities in the first half, Etienne demonstrated his ability to be a workhorse back in the Jaguars' comeback victory.
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They will need him to play big again here, and he will. We have Etienne passing the 100-yard threshold anew against the Chiefs.
2. Trevor Lawrence oozes confidence
The Jaguars had a strong finish to their season, winning seven of their last eight games. This included last week's shock Wild Card victory against the Chargers. Remember, however, that Jacksonville has not won three consecutive road games since 2017. Of course, that was before Trevor Lawrence showed up.
Lawrence bounced back from a difficult first half last week, in which he threw four interceptions. He eventually finished with 288 passing yards and four touchdowns. Take note that he also finished in the regular season with 4,113 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Larence is among the best QBs in the league right now.
Still, he needs to be more consistent in the Divisional Round. He's squaring off against Mahomes, after all. There's hardly anyone better than that Kansas City kid under center right now. Lawrence will have to rely on playmakers like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram to make his life easier.
That said, we have Lawrence going over 270 total yards here. He should also put up one touchdown and just one INT.
1. Jaguars go down swinging
During the regular season, Kansas City was a dominant offensive force. The Chiefs finished with a league-leading average of 297.8 yards in the air and 413.6 total yards per game. They outperformed those numbers versus Jacksonville, as Mahomes completed 331 passes for 486 total yards for the Chiefs. Keep in mind that the 27-year-old quarterback has had eight games this season where he completed at least three touchdown passes. We might see that again in the Divisional Round.
However, the Chiefs should be wary of overlooking Jacksonville in their playoff matchup. The Jaguars have shown that they can be a dangerous opponent. Despite the Chiefs winning their Week 10 contest by a large margin, the game was much closer than the score suggests. The Chiefs need to keep Mahomes clean in the pocket and not underestimate the Jaguars' defense, which has significantly improved in recent games. Take note that Jacksonville averages just 16.3 points allowed per game in their last three outings.
The Jags will fight tooth and nail here, but they'll go down swinging to a superior Mahomes offense.
