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Well before the 2023-24 NFL season began, I believed the NFC South was the New Orleans Saints' to lose. Although Derek Carr was grossly overpaid in free agency, he was the most credible quarterback in the division. That statement remained true even after Baker Mayfield signed a one-year contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a little more than a week later.
This Week 17 matchup between both teams could change everything and invalidate all of my preconceived notions. Mayfield and the Bucs (8-7) are one win away from claiming their third consecutive divisional title, with this one being by far the most improbable.
Public opinion will probably not change much, though. Whichever squad becomes the obligatory delegate of this underwhelming grouping will be expected to get slaughtered by the Dallas Cowboys during Wildcard Weekend. And even if a monumental upset would occur, the story would be about another Dallas flop, not a Tampa Bay triumph.
And Buccaneers fans would resoundingly reply: “Who cares?” A home playoff game will definitely matter as far the players' bank accounts are concerned. Fans who anticipated a rebuild year will treasure this supposedly “hopeless” fate.
We cannot skip past this Sunday, though. Bold postseason predictions cannot be made until we make our bold predictions for the Buccaneers' pivotal showdown with the Saints (7-8). Let's get started.
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Buccaneers WR Mike Evans ends rough stretch vs. Saints
Call me a cheater if you'd like, but I'm still counting this as a bold prognostication. Yes, the absence of injured New Orleans star cornerback Marshon Lattimore makes a huge difference, but Mike Evans posting a big game against the Saints should not be seen as a forgone conclusion.
The franchise has been giving the star wide receiver a hard time since before Lattimore was even drafted by the Saints in 2017. He had only one showing that could be called a “big game” from 2014-16 and has been held in check for the last few meetings with his rival. Evans hasn't recorded at least 70 receiving yards versus New Orleans since 2018, per StatMuse.
Although Lattimore is the main culprit of this prolonged suppression, head coach and respected NFL defensive mind Dennis Allen has been on the sidelines through nearly all of No. 13's quiet outings. Evans is poised to break this slump, though.
The Super Bowl 55 champion has great chemistry with Mayfield and is just one touchdown away from matching his carer high of 14. I think he gets that done on Sunday, while also breaking away for a couple of back-breaking, chunk plays. His 15.9 yards per catch illustrates just how rejuvenated he is in his 10th year.
And so too, should his performance in this possible postseason-clinching game.
Buccaneers defense gives Saints problems, again
A couple weeks ago, I wildly whiffed on my New York Giants predictions against the Saints, one of which included the defense getting to Derek Carr. While he did not have a huge statistical showing, the veteran quarterback was sacked only one time. I am going right back to the well in Week 17, but with more conviction for this contest.
Tampa Bay's defense has been playing much better over the last month-and-a-half and is in the top half of the NFL in sacks (44.0). Carr does a nice job at quickly getting the ball out of his hands and staying on his feet, but he could be without a key security blanket. Target magnet Alvin Kamara is questionable with an illness, so New Orleans' whole offense might be out of sync.
That will open the door for linebacker Lavonte David (113 combined tackles, 4.5 sacks) and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (110, 5) to bring the pressure on the Saints offensive line. The Buccaneers defense dominated in the Caesars Superdome back on Oct. 1 and are primed to stifle their foes once again.
Baker Mayfield stays sharp, but RB Rachaad White seals the deal
Rachaad White registered just 39 rushing yards on 20 carries in last weekend's 30-12 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars (did have a touchdown). But before that, the second-year running back was making progress. He exceeded his poor 3.6 yard per rush average in four straight games.
Do not let a rough day for both the RB and the O-Line, in what was a blowout win, overshadow the fact that White is showing signs of a potential breakthrough. The Saints surrender the eighth-most rushing yards at almost 127 per game. This Week 17 NFC South face-off in Raymond James Stadium is when a weakness turns into a strength for the Buccaneers.
Baker Mayfield will find moments to shine as well when he links up with TD machine Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and the rest of the underrated offense, but White is ready to set the tone on the ground. He is the X-factor in Tampa's most critical matchup of the year.
In the end, though, everyone should be basking in the glory that another divisional crown and postseason berth will bring. And then, the wishful thinking can officially get underway.
