Most Baltimore Ravens Week 5 predictions will include a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens are four-point road favorites against the Steelers at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they've been the best team in the AFC North to start the 2023 season. That doesn't mean Baltimore will have an easy time beating Pittsburgh in Sunday's pivotal divisional matchup.

The AFC North was supposed to be up for grabs in 2023. It only took four games for the Ravens to emerge as the clear favorites. Baltimore has already beaten the Cleveland Browns and the surprisingly disappointing Cincinnati Bengals. A win over the Steelers would put the Ravens two games ahead of Pittsburgh with a perfect 3-0 record against divisional opponents. Given the way that Pittsburgh's season has gone, it's difficult to imagine the Steelers losing in Week 5 only to clinch the AFC North title at season's end.

The Steelers are fortunate to be 2-2. Their first four weeks are bookended by a pair of three-score losses, including last week's 30-6 defeat at the hands of the Houston Texans. Pittsburgh needed not one, but two defensive touchdowns to escape Week 2 with a win over Cleveland. In Week 3, the Steelers beat a Las Vegas Raiders team that is on a three-game losing streak and in the conversation for the worst team in the conference.

Add in the fact that Pittsburgh will either be without Kenny Pickett or start a banged-up version of the Steelers' quarterback and the Ravens are expected to win the latest entry in the AFC North's biggest rivalry. In the NFL, of course, things often don't go as expected. What surprises might be in store for the Week 5 Ravens-Steelers game?

Let's make some bold Ravens predictions for Week 5. Note that these are bold predictions. It's unlikely that both predictions will prove to be correct, but they have a better chance of happening than what the odds indicate.

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2. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will have fewer than 200 passing yards and have a worse passer rating than the Steelers quarterback

The biggest reason for Baltimore being favored by north of a field goal in Pittsburgh is the difference in the team's quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson has been among the best signal callers in 2023. Pickett has arguably been the NFL's worst starter. It had been thought that Mitchell Trubisky would start against the Ravens, though Pickett told reporters Wednesday that he'll be ready to play Sunday in spite of his knee injury. No matter who takes the snaps for Pittsburgh, Baltimore has the much better player at the sport's most important position.

It's certainly the case over the course of an entire NFL season. Perhaps not so much when the Ravens play the Steelers. Jackson has literally never had a good game against Pittsburgh. He came the closest in 2021 when he had 253 passing yards and a mediocre 80.1 passer rating. Jackson was also sacked seven times and the Steelers beat the Ravens 20-19. In his lone game against Pittsburgh in 2020, Jackson competed fewer than 50% of his passes and threw two interceptions in a loss. Jackson even played poorly against Pittsburgh in his 2019 MVP campaign. Three of his six interceptions that year were recorded by Steelers defenders.

Baltimore's offense is not yet humming on all cylinders. The Ravens have been able to overcome injuries at running back, wide receiver and on the offensive line. They won't be so lucky against the Steelers, which have proven that they know how to stop Jackson and Co.

1. Baltimore will lose and the Ravens-Steelers game will go under 38.5 points

The Steelers have +162 odds to beat the Ravens straight up at FanDuel. The sportsbook offers +370 odds for a parlay that includes Pittsburgh to win and the game to go under the total of 38.5. It's a bet that has value, considering the chances of the Steelers winning a low-scoring game Sunday.

It doesn't seem to matter where the game is played or who takes the field. As long as Mike Tomlin and Jim Harbaugh are on opposite sidelines, most Ravens-Steelers games are going to be nail-biters. A large percentage will be dominated by the defenses. Pittsburgh is 4-1 in its last five meetings with Baltimore. No team has scored more than 20 points in any game. The Steelers scored exactly 16 points in three of those victories. Since the start of the 2015 season, only three Ravens-Steelers games have been decided by multiple possessions.

The Ravens haven't scored more than 28 points in a game yet this season. It's far from a stretch to suggest Baltimore will be held below 20 points. Pickett has been held to a sub-72.0 passer rating in three games. The Steelers are averaging one offensive touchdown per game. The Ravens are second in opponents' yards per play. Look for Pittsburgh's defense to lead the way in a 20-17 or 17-14 type of win.