The Pittsburgh Steelers will open the season with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday at Mercedes Benz Stadium. We're in the Peach State, sharing our NFL odds series while making a Steelers-Falcons prediction and pick while evaluating the matchup.

Mike Tomlin returns for the 18th season, hoping to lead the Steelers back to the postseason. Amazingly, he has never had a losing season, as he guided the Steelers to a 9-8 season in 2023.

The Steelers named Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback for Week 1. Now, he will carry an offense that includes Najee Harris at running back and George Pickens at wide receiver. Harris rushed 255 times for 1,035 yards and eight touchdowns last season. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren rushed 149 times for 784 yards for four touchdowns while also catching 61 passes for 370 yards. Pickens had 63 catches for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns. Likewise, tight end Pat Freiermuth had 32 receptions for 308 yards and two scores.

The defense somehow got even better in this offseason. Pittsburgh signed Patrick Queen to shore up their linebackers. Now, he will join a defense that already has TJ Watt, one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.

The Falcons have a new head coach, Raheem Morris, who will take over from Arthur Smith, who, ironically, is now the offensive coordinator for the Steelers. Ultimately, they hope to have a good season after another floundering.

Kirk Cousins is the new quarterback and hopes to get off to a good start. Furthermore, he will have a new running back to check down to if he needs to. Bijan Robinson rushed 214 times for 976 yards and four touchdowns last season while also catching 58 passes for 487 yards and four scores. Meanwhile, Tyler Allgeier rushed 186 times for 683 yards for four scores. Wide receiver Drake London had 69 receptions for 905 yards and two touchdowns. Also, tight end Kyle Pitts had 53 catches for 667 yards for three touchdowns.

Here are the NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Steelers-Falcons Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers: +3.5 (-114)

Moneyline: +154

Atlanta Falcons: -3.5 (-106)

Moneyline: -184

Over: 42.5 (-102)

Under: 45.5 (-120)

How to Watch Steelers vs. Falcons

Time: 1 PM ET/10 AM PT

TV: FOX

Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)

Why The Steelers Could Cover The Spread/Win

Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the NFL. Possibly, he may be the best coach ever, considering he has never had a losing season despite not having much talent in recent years.

Wilson used to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. However, he has regressed in the past two seasons with the Denver Broncos. It was a major reason why the Broncos traded him to the Steelers. Now, he must prove that the Steelers made the right choice. The Falcons are not the most imposing defense against which to start the season. Therefore, it will be an excellent chance to show what he has.

Queen will help become an exceptional three-down linebacker. Yet, the edge rushers need to do more, which means Cam Heyward must improve. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick needs to return to his former status as a Pro Bowler, as injuries have derailed him the last few seasons.

The Steelers will cover the spread if Wilson can take care of the football and Harris can run the ball efficiently. Then, they need the defense to rush the passer and force mistakes from Cousins.

Why The Falcons Could Cover The Spread/Win

Smith was a major reason the Falcons struggled last season, with his stubborn playcalling and unwillingness to utilize Robinson properly. Therefore, he is gone, and the Falcons will look different.

The Falcons must run the ball with Robinson. Then, they must find ways to get the ball to him out of the backfield. Doing this will open up the passing lanes for Cousins. Ultimately, the Falcons have some great receivers in London and Pitts. But they have struggled to get them the ball, mainly thanks to bad quarterback play and horrible playcalling. Now, they get a chance to prove they can do this properly.

The defense has struggled over the years and has been unable to muster any pass rush. Thus, Atlanta would like to see more from Grady Jarrett.

The Falcons will cover the spread if they properly utilize Robinson and get him 20 touches. Then, they need to rattle Wilson and not give him time to throw while stuffing the run.

Final Steelers-Falcons Prediction & Pick

The Steelers are 15-2-1 against the Falcons, dominating them with four consecutive wins. Recently, the Steelers edged out the Falcons 19-16 on December 4, 2022. The Falcons have not defeated the Steelers since October 22, 2006, when they edged them out 41-38 in overtime. Curiously, the Steelers are 6-3-1 over their past 10 Week 1 games. Furthermore, the Falcons are 4-6 over their past 10 Week 1 games. While the Falcons are the favorites, it is tough to trust them until they show something. Conversely, the Steelers have done well to start the season over the years. We could see something similar.

Final Steelers-Falcons Prediction & Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers: +3.5 (-114)