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It's a stressful time to be a middling team in the AFC these days. Before Week 15 action kicked off, there were six teams in the conference with a 7-6 record fighting for the final two wild card spots. One team on the outside looking in? The Houston Texans.
Entering Week 14, the Texans were an exciting team to envision playing postseason football. Led by C.J. Stroud, a rookie superstar quarterback that didn't look like any other rookie we've seen in a long time, DeMeco Ryans' team appeared to be ahead of the rebuilding schedule after a demeaning run of losing seasons and one-and-done head coaches.
But then, the Texans lost to the New York Jets. Which, yup, bad. Worse though, is that Stroud left that game in the NFL's concussion protocol after his head bounced off the infamous MetLife Stadium turf. It's hard to say Stroud is trending in the right direction to play on Sunday as of writing. Rushing Stroud back from a serious brain injury would be the worst thing Houston could do.
Unfortunately, Stroud's injury spells doom for the Texans playing past the first week of January. Do we need to spell it out for you? We'd love to.
Offense leads the way in H-Town
It's indisputable that the Texans are powered by the offense Stroud orchestrates. Don't believe it? Check out these splits: when the Texans score 21 or more points this season, they have a record of 6-1.
20 or fewer points? It's a 1-5 team.
Obviously, scoring more points = better (unless you are Mike McCarthy, maybe.) But that simple breakdown shows that the Texans aren't prevailing in low-scoring games.
The Texans have a top-10 offense and are fourth-best in terms of passing in the NFL. Their pass defense, however, is a bottom-10 one. Winning track meets isn't a bad strategy in the NFL, but doing so without your franchise QB is a tough trick to pull off.
If Stroud does miss any time moving forward, this offense is simply not going to be as potent as it's been. And with a defense that can contribute but not dominate, Houston's playoff hopes are dashed.
Stroud makes people better
In his first two seasons as a Houston Texan, wide receiver Nico Collins totaled 927 receiving yards and three touchdowns, and averaged 13.3 yards per reception.
Already this year, Collins has 1,004 yards and six scores while averaging 16.7 yards per grab. His 40 first-down receptions this season are almost as many as he had in 2021 and 2022 combined (43).
Collins is Exhibit A in the case that Stroud makes those around him better. The numbers are also born out in players who featured elsewhere last season (Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown) and have seen individual improvement with Stroud as their guy.
The Davis Mills Experience
The man who would replace Stroud in the event he misses time is Davis Mills. Mills started 26 games for the Texans across 2021 and 2022. The team posted a record of 5-20-1 record in those contests. Mills threw for 300+ yards in six of those 28 starts.
In 13 starts as a rookie, Stroud has led the Texans to seven wins already, and he's thrown for 300+ yards six times.
Mills is not going to step in and replace Stroud. This offense will be appreciably worse with this quarterback change, enough to kiss the playoffs goodbye.
Texans' mindset
The numbers paint an ugly picture, but those are still humans under the shiny helmets playing the game. And it can't be underestimated how much losing a starting quarterback can negatively affect a team's psyche.
From day one, Stroud emerged as a leader on the team, a captain on the offense and the player teammates rallied around.
If Stroud is unable to go, the talent on the field will suffer, and the confidence in the locker room is sure to take a hit. Enough of a hit that it will be too much to overcome.
The Texans would be doing the responsible thing by handling Stroud with kid gloves. He is the future of the franchise, he'll be QB1 for Houston for many seasons. There is no reason to put the kid at risk for 2023.
But that means a painful step back in the short term. That means the playoff hopes of the Texans are cooked.
