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The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians are on the verge of their upcoming American League Championship Series. In most areas, the Yankees hold an advantage over the Guardians, particularly in their lineup and in the starting rotation. The Guardians, however, likely have the best bullpen in the majors right now. They are the top two seeds of the American League, and both teams beat AL Central teams in the Detroit Tigers (Guardians) and Kansas City Royals (Yankees) in the Division Series. Ahead of their ALCS matchup against the Guardians, we'll be making our Yankees ALCS predictions.
New York is the number one seed and is favored in the matchup. After going 94-68 and winning the AL East, the Yankees beat the Royals in four games to advance to the ALCS. The Guardians dispatched the Tigers, their division rival, in five games. For the seventh time, New York and Cleveland will face off in the playoffs. The Yankees hold a 4-2 record in those series, including their victories in the 1998 ALCS and 2022 ALDS.
Here are three ways the Yankees will excel and capture their 41st American League pennant. If these predictions come true, then the Bronx Bombers will almost certainly meet either the Los Angeles Dodgers or the New York Mets in the World Series. Let's dive in and take a look at our Yankees ALCS predictions.
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1. Carlos Rodon spins two gems in Games 1 and 5 for Yankees
If you take a look at Rodon's stats as a whole, they aren't too bad at all. The 31-year-old lefty went 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA over 175 innings pitched. The 195 strikeouts over that timeframe aren't too shabby either. It's clear that when Rodon is on, he's really on. The former first-round pick can be one of the best pitchers in baseball, and there have been many instances where he's shown that skill level this season in the Bronx.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone stated on Sunday that Rodon will get the ball in Game 1. If the Bombers sweep the Guardians, then Rodon likely won't pitch again. However, Cleveland will likely take one or two games in this matchup. If that is the case, then it would line the left-hander up for a second start in the series. It will be in that matchup where he will show why New York signed him to a six-year, $162 million contract two winters ago.
In Game 5, Rodon will throw six shutout innings, allowing five hits and striking out ten batters. His performance will help the Yankees gain a 3-2 advantage over the Guardians and help propel them into Game 6. It's time for Rodon to show up when the lights are brightest. The Bombers and their fans hope that he will rise to the occasion.
2. Aaron Judge breaks postseason stigma around him
In 48 postseason games, the Yankee captain is hitting just .207 with 13 home runs and 25 RBIs. Those stats are simply not acceptable for any starter for the New York Yankees in October. That rings especially true for Judge, who is one of the best hitters in the entire sport. The 32-year-old will likely win his second AL MVP award after amassing a WAR of 10.8 on the season in 158 games played. During that period, he hit .322 with 58 home runs and 144 RBIs. It's safe to say that Judge is the biggest piece of the Yankees' current core.
Therefore, his performance will turn around in the ALCS. In the ALDS win over the Royals, Judge only hit .154 with no home runs and no runs driven in. That won't fly against the Guardians, let alone whichever team the Yankees would play in the World Series. He'll break out in a big way, hitting almost .500 along with three round trippers and eight RBIs. That performance will lead to an ALCS MVP nod for the outfielder, adding another accomplishment to his personal trophy case.
3. Luke Weaver saves three games for Yankees
Converted to relief by the Yankees before this season, Weaver had been a middling starting pitcher for a number of teams before his time in the Bronx. He did make a couple of starts after he was acquired from the Seattle Mariners towards the end of 2023, but the 31-year-old has hit a different level in the bullpen. When former closer Clay Holmes began to falter earlier this season, Weaver stepped into the closing role full time.
Since then, he's been even better than he was earlier in the campaign. His four saves betray just how good the righty has been in the role. The 103 strikeouts over 84 innings pitched, as well as the 0.93 WHIP, showcases elite pitches and excellent control. By playing up a quality pitch mix he developed as a starter in shorter stints, Weaver has unlocked a new level to his game with the assistance of New York pitching coach Matt Blake.
Now closing for the Bombers, Weaver will shut the door on Games 1, 4 and 6 to help the team make it back to the World Series. In the Game 6 clincher, he'll strike out Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor to secure the series win for the Yankees. For the first time since 2009, the Yankees will be back in the Fall Classic.
4. Yankees beat Guardians 4-2, advance to 2024 World Series
Behind Rodon, the Yankees will take Game 1. After a strong performance from staff ace Gerrit Cole, they will come close to winning, but the bats will go silent. The series will head to Cleveland tied at one game apiece. Following the two games at Progressive Field (Guardians will win Game 3 but the Bombers will come back to win Game 4), the series will be split once again at 2-2.
In Game 5, Rodon performs even better than the opener, and the Yankee offense comes to life. Riding that momentum, New York will defeat Cleveland once again, with Weaver slamming the door shut. The Yankees will win the series 4-2 and move on for a chance at title number 28. The magic that October baseball brings will be strong at Yankee Stadium and will help influence the Bombers and their chances. Will the Yankees capitalize to win that elusive number 28? Not if the Dodgers or Mets have anything to say about it.
