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The NFL Draft is this Thursday and every year there is a player not expected to be drafted in the first round who somehow slips in. With only 31 picks in the first round this year due to the Dolphins losing their first rounder, someone will still surprise draft experts and be taken in the first round. It's time to continue our 2023 NFL Draft Odds series with a special sleeper to be drafted in the first-round prediction and pick.
Last year it was Cole Strange going 29th to the Patriots that surprised everyone. Inevitably a team trades up to the end of the first to get the guy they want with the fifth-year option, or someone is just in love with a player they do not think will be there in the second round. This year, there will be another. Mock drafts help predict some of it, but here are the top sleepers to be picked in the first round.
Here are the 2023 NFL Draft odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 NFL Draft Odds: To Be a First-Round Pick
Hendon Hooker (-140)
Jahmyr Gibbs (-125)
Joe Tippmann (-125)
Darnell Washington (+100)
Mazi Smith (+105)
Kelon White (+105)
Felix Anudike-Uzomah (+125)
Drew Sanders (+125)
Adetomiwa Adebawore (+155)
Steve Avila (+155)
John Michael Schmitz (+170)
Kelee Ringo (+185)
Jalin Hyatt (+230)
B.J. Ojulari (+300)
Jack Campbell (+300)
Dawand Jones (+300)
Josh Downs (+650)
First-Round Sleeper: Darnell Washington
Currently, the consensus for Darnell Washington is a second-round pick, but he is a special player. Last year, Washington had 45 catches and three touchdowns on the season. This was all done while sharing the field with Brock Bowers. He is 6'7″ and 270 pounds but moves with great speed. Washington is an offensive tackle who plays tight end. He can make great catches with his wing span and can also make guys miss. Washington even lined up in the slot 86 times according to PFF. Washington is one of the best run-blocking tight ends in the draft. PFF rated him 81.3 run blocking grade, which was top five at his position.
Consequently, a team will pick up a big red zone target, that can move, and lay guys out while blocking. There are tight ends better than Washington in the draft, but with a focus on the passing game in the NFL, and the sheer size of Washington, someone will be intrigued enough to snag him.
2023 NFL Draft Sleeper Prediction: New Orleans Saints Pick Washington #29 Overall
2023 NFL Draft Sleeper Pick: Yes- Darnell Washington First Round (+100)
First-Round Sleeper: Mazi Smith
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Mazi Smith is projected to go in the second round as well, but his performance at the combine may have teams thinking he needs to go higher. Coming in a 6'3″ and 337 pounds, Smith is a beast of a nose tackle and has been drawing some comparisons to Dontari Poe. Smith also improved and played his best at the end of the year. Three of his top four rated games according to PFF came against Ohio State, in the Big Ten Title Game, and the playoff game. He had 25 quarterback pressures on the year and showed that he is not just a run stopper, but can pass rush as well.
He is also a quality tackler in the run game. He missed only 8% of his tackles on the season and was in the backfield on running plays consistently. With his size and raw talent, he could take off in the NFL. If he continues to improve as a pass rusher, he will be a top defensive lineman in the league.
2023 NFL Draft Sleeper Prediction: Seattle Seahawks Pick Mazi Smith #20 Overall
2023 NFL Draft Sleeper Pick: Yes- Mazi Smith First Round (+105)
First-Round Sleeper: Steve Avila
As the NFL becomes more pass-heavy, versatile linemen who are quality pass blockers have become an essential part of NFL rosters. Steve Avila has played both center and guard in his career and protects the quarterback wonderfully. He garnered All-American honors for his work at TCU, and en route to that, he allowed just 11 QB pressures on 540 passing snaps. That ranked him as one of the best in the nation in that regard. Teams tried to stunt him, chip him, anything to get by him, but to no avail. Even Mazi Smith struggled some with him in the playoff game, forcing Michigan to move Smith away from Avila.
As a run blocker, Avila was just as good. He was very aggressive on running plays, often being the player to initiate contact. He was able to block downfield as well, being the leader blocker often for some of the big TCU runs. The biggest knock against Avila has been his lateral movement. He has done best against power rushers but struggled with speed guys. That could be an issue with better interior defensive linemen in the NFL, but it is also something good coaching can improve.
2023 NFL Draft Sleeper Prediction: New York Giants Pick Steve Avila #25 Overall
2023 NFL Draft Sleeper Pick: Yes- Steve Avila First Round (+155)
First-Round Sleeper: Jack Campbell
Jack Campbell is a beast. Campbell is an AP All-American, won the Nagurski-Wooden Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, and the Butkus-Fitzgerald Big Ten Linebacker of the Year, and earned first-team All-Big Ten honors for the second consecutive season. Campbell took home the Butkus Award as the national top linebacker as well. He led the team with 115 tackles, plus two interceptions, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, and 13 QB pressures during the regular season. While wrapping up double-digit tackle numbers in each of his last six games, he only missed two tackles and has been a beast on the run game. He has all the accolades in the world, but there are some issues.
Campbell is a traditional linebacker. As linebackers have gotten smaller and quicker, Campbell is the old-school big framed hard hitting linebacker. He struggled on the season in passing situations, primarily because he does not have the lateral quickness to keep up with some of the fastest. He will struggle against many tight ends in the NFL, but the way he moves downhill and hits will make him an attractive first-round pick.
2023 NFL Draft Sleeper Prediction: Dallas Cowboys Pick Jack Campbell #26 Overall
2023 NFL Draft Sleeper Pick: Yes- Jack Campbell First Round (+300)
First-Round Sleeper: Josh Downs
The biggest of sleepers for the first round will be Josh Downs. Ranked consistently as the fifth wide receiver, either a team will need to pick him over some of the other big names, or a run of wide receivers in the first round will have to happen. In two seasons, Downs has racked up 195 catches, 2,364 yards, and 19 touchdowns. That is over 12 yards per reception for Downs. Downs is a great route runner and has moves that get him open. Despite a small frame, Downs grabs over 70% of contested catches according to PFF. He is the traditional “plays bigger than he is,” type of wide receiver.
Despite all this, Downs is most likely only ever going to be a slot receiver. He is just 5'10” and 175 pounds. He can add some weight to the NFL, but will not be growing, which could be a concern for teams.
2023 NFL Draft Sleeper Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles Pick Josh Downs #30 Overall
2023 NFL Draft Sleeper Pick: Yes- Josh Downs First Round (+650)
