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The game everyone has been waiting for is Wednesday night. Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers will battle Anthony Davis and the Dallas Mavericks on ESPN in the Return Game. There is a lot on the line as the playoffs are near. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Lakers-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Lakers will be on the second of a back-to-back, and not an easy one, as they take on the OKC Thunder on Tuesday night. Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves are all game-time decisions for that matchup, so their availability is still up in the air for Wednesday night. It would be a travesty if Luka was unavailable for the game against the Mavs, but I doubt that will happen. LA has been playing well as of late winners of two straight. They have a good chance of finishing as the 3rd seed in the West.
The Mavericks will be playing in the Play-In Tournament. They could be the final seed to make it, but need AD to be healthy. Kyrie Irving is done for the season. The Mavs' only hope of being a competitive team relies on AD's health. They are capable of making any game or series interesting if playing at their best. The Mavs have lost two straight and are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Here are the Lakers-Mavericks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Lakers-Mavericks Odds
Los Angeles Lakers: -5 (-112)
Moneyline: -210
Dallas Mavericks: +5 (-108)
Moneyline: +176
Over: 228 (-110)
Under: 228 (-110)
How To Watch Lakers vs. Mavericks
Time: 7:30 ET/4:30 PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
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Why the Lakers Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Lakers are just 18-20 on the road. It's clear they play much better in front of their home fans, where they are 30-10. However, LA just pounded the Oklahoma City Thunder in OKC, 126-99. The bench played well, and LeBron and Luka combined for 49 points. Austin Reaves added 20, and the Lakers' big-three is making the team look like a serious contender. If Dorian Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent are combining for eight triples as they did against OKC, then that gives them strong confidence that they have a deep team, which leads to a deep run. It's expected the Thunder will bounce back and give the Lakers much better competition than Sunday.
Since joining LA, Luka has averaged 27.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. He finds ways to generate steals, but the good opposing teams focus on making him defend as much as possible. The more weary he is, the easier it is to score on him late in games. Just ask the Boston Celtics. Most of the Mavericks know how to attack Luka from all the years during practice and watching firsthand. This could play a factor in this game. If the Mavericks force the game plan to attack Luka as much as possible, it could benefit Dallas.
The Lakers are 44-33-2 against the spread and 39-39 on over/unders. They are one of the better teams in the league at covering the spread.
Why the Mavericks Will Cover the Spread/Win
AD is back and that will give his team a chance to win this game. They are also not playing on a back-to-back, which gives them an advantage. LA will play the Thunder twice in a row and will be looking forward to this highly anticipated battle in Dallas. The fans will be very loud and there will be a ton of mixed emotions in the arena. Many of the supporters fell in love with Luka, and now will be rooting against him in person for the very first time. Luka could do two things. Embrace the emotion and dominate the game, which he has done many times. Or, he could understand the focus will be around him and shift his play toward getting his teammates to generate the scoring. Either way, Luka will find a way to make winning plays. The Mavericks need to make sure that is limited.
Jaden Hardy will be out for this game. Dante Exam and AD are both game-time decisions. AD is listed as probable, and there is no chance he misses this game. I can see him going off for 30+ with at least 15 rebounds and multiple blocked-shots. Seeing him go against LeBron will be weird to see. Davis will certainly make a statement in this game which could be enough for the Mavs to cover this spread.
The Mavs are 36-40-3 against the spread and 42-35-2 on over/unders. They haven't covered in four straight games.
Final Lakers-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
Since these odds were released, the Mavericks' spread trimmed down. The public has leaned toward Dallas covering, so far. I don't think that will be the case. I believe the game will be close, but the Lakers will win by at least six points. LA is playing great basketball right now and defeated the Thunder on the road. They are on a back-to-back but will do enough to win and cover.
Final Lakers-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Lakers -5 (-112)
