Subscribe
Follow Us
The San Diego Padres will start a three-game series with the New York Yankees on Monday in the Bronx. It's a 1998 World Series rematch as we continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Yankees prediction and pick.
Padres-Yankees Projected Starters
Nick Pivetta vs. Carlos Rodon
Nick Pivetta (5-1) with a 1.78 ERA
Last Start: Pivetta went 5 1/3 innings in his last outing, allowing three earned runs on five hits while striking out nine and walking one in a win over the San Francisco Giants.
Away Splits: Pivetta is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA over two starts on the road.
Carlos Rodon (4-3) with a 3.43 ERA
Last Start: Rodon tossed six innings in his previous outing, allowing two earned runs on two hits, while striking out seven and walking one in a win over the Baltimore Orioles.
Home Splits: Rodon is 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA over three starts at Yankee Stadium.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Yankees Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-164)
Moneyline: +130
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+136)
Moneyline: -142
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
How to Watch Padres vs. Yankees
Time: 7:05 PM ET/PT
TV: MLB Network
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Article Continues Below
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres are off to a hot start and continue to play well while keeping pace with the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. Ultimately, it's been a great ride for the Padres, as they will attempt to keep the momentum. It all starts with the offense.
Fernando Tatis Jr. recently joined the 100/100 club, adding to his already great career. Amazingly, he has been seeing the ball well and driving runners home. Luis Arraez remains a mainstay at the top of the lineup, setting the pace for the rest of the Padres' hitters. Meanwhile, Manny Machado is still efficient at driving runners across the plate and will continue to get that chance. Xander Bogaerts hopes to change his approach and improve at the plate.
Pivetta has struggled against the Yankees throughout his career. Unfortunately, he is just 1-4 with a 6.99 ERA in seven appearances, and must do more to change his fortunes in this game. When Pivetta exits the game, he will turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball in team ERA. Significantly, Robert Suarez leads the National League with 13 saves and has been dominant with a 0.60 ERA.
The Padres will cover the spread if Tatis, Arraez, Machado, and Bogaerts can find their stroke and string together some hits. Then, they need Pivetta to avoid making mistakes down the heart of the plate.
Why The Yankees Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Yankees lost a key player as Jazz Chisholm sustained a right oblique strain and will miss 4-6 weeks. Therefore, the Yankees need others in their lineup to do well.
That has not been a problem for their other new guy, as Paul Goldschmidt is thriving in New York, seeing the ball well and hitting it. Likewise, Aaron Judge continues to make history and is the most dangerous hitter in the American League. The Yankees have also blended in their other spots in the lineup with players Anthony Volpe and Cody Bellinger. Overall, the Yankees are second in batting average and runs while also ranking first in on-base percentage, home runs, and slugging percentage. It's safe to say that this lineup is one of the most dangerous in baseball.
Rodon is 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA over five starts against the Padres in his career, including a complete game in 2022. Now, he hopes to dominate them again. When Rodon leaves the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is sixth in baseball in team ERA. While Devin Williams has struggled, he can close for this team, with Luke Weaver also picking up saves.
The Yankees will cover the spread if they can get ahead in the count and make Pivetta work for every out while punishing him for any mistakes. Then, they need Rodon to work quickly and avoid getting into trouble.
Final Padres-Yankees Prediction & Pick
The Padres are 20-12 against the spread, while the Yankees are 17-16. Additionally, the Padres are 6-8 against the spread on the road, while the Yankees are 10-7 against the spread at home.
The Padres have been the best at covering the spread. However, the Yankees are an entirely different entity. Will it matter? Usually, I would say yes. But the Padres have their best pitcher on the mound. Significantly, I think Pivetta has done everything to keep the Padres up. I think he will do it again, helping the Padres cover the spread on the road.
Final Padres-Yankees Prediction & Pick: San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-164)
