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The San Diego Padres host the Tampa Bay Rays for Game 2 of the 3-game series at Petco Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Rays-Padres prediction and pick.
Michael King and Shane Baz go head-to-head on Friday night for the series opener.
Rays-Padres Projected Starters
Ryan Pepiot vs. Dylan Cease
Ryan Pepiot (1-3) with a 4.82 ERA, 31 K's, 1.50 WHIP in 28 innings.
Last Start: 6.0 innings, six hits, three earned runs, one walk, seven K's in the 4-0 loss to the New York Yankees.
Away Splits: All five of his starts have come at home. Pepiot will start his first road game of the season at Petco Park.
Dylan Cease (1-1) with a 6.04 ERA, 30 K's, 1.50 WHIP in 25.1 innings. He and Pepiot have had similar seasons, but Cease has allowed two more runs in fewer innings.
Last Start: 5.0 innings, six hits, two earned runs, one walk, six K's in the 3-2 win over the Houston Astros.
Home Splits: (1-0) with a 3.31 ERA, 20 K's, six earned runs, four walks, in 16.1 innings.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rays-Padres Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-172)
Moneyline: +130
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+142)
Moneyline: -154
Over: 7 (-114)
Under: 7 (-106)
How to Watch Rays vs. Padres
Time: 8:40 ET/5:40 PT
TV: MLB.TV, Padres.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
Tampa Bay is coming off a series win over the Arizona Diamondbacks for their first series win of April. At 11-14, the Rays aren't playing great but are only four games out from first place in the AL East. The Rays are 2-4 on the road this season, and the wins came in their last two games.
Pepiot is a great strikeout pitcher. He has reached at least five in four of his five starts, with two games registering eight K's. His last start against the Yankees was his best since the opening start of the year for the 27-year-old. Petco Park is a pitcher's park, so he should see some success on the bump. The Padres' lineup is dealing with a ton of injuries, and he has a chance to capitalize on it. He has three games reaching six innings, and that should be a priority again on Saturday night. If Pepiot reaches six completed innings and gives the Rays a quality start, then they will be in a spot to cover the spread.
First baseman Jonathan Aranda is turning into a name we all need to pay attention to. He is batting .314, which is tied for 19th in the league. Furthermore, he has four homers, 13 RBIs, eight doubles, and a 1.017 OPS (10th). Aranda has just 70 AB, so the sample size is small, but if he continues this pace, he may become the Rays' most consistent hitter. Kameron Misner has also hit well at .349 on the year and a 1.029 OPS. The rest of the lineup has been lackluster. Yandy Diaz is hitting just .248, Junior Caminero is at .250, Brandon Lowe is at .207, and Christopher Morel is batting .268.
Jake Magnum left the game against the Diamondbacks with an injury. He likely will be out for this game.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
Dylan Cease is not having as bad a year as his numbers show. His ERA is a little inflated due to one awful start against the Athletics, where he allowed nine runs in a minor league stadium. Since that outing, he has allowed just two earned runs in each of the following two games. Cease has faced the Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, A's, Chicago Cubs, and Houston Astros this season. That was a difficult stretch, and it gets easier with the Rays. I expect him to have his best outing of the season on Saturday night.
The Friars' lineup is going through it right now. When healthy, SD has showcased that they are a legit offense ready to remain one of the best in the league, dating back to last season. Despite not having lefties Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, Luis Arraez, and Jason Heyward, the Friars are still third in the league in team average at .263. Fernando Tatis Jr. is having an incredible start to the season, batting .333 with eight homers and 17 RBIs. He has an OPS of 1.029 while walking 12 times and stealing seven bags. Interestingly enough, Tatis has just one double on the year.
If the Padres want to win this game, they need Cease to give them a quality start alongside the offense producing at least 4-5 runs. Tatis, Manny Machado, Gavin Sheets, and Xander Bogaerts need to hit well.
Final Rays-Padres Prediction & Pick
This game should come down to who can get early runs. If the Padres have a lead by the time the bullpen comes in, I expect them to finish off the Rays. Cease should have a good outing. Take the Padres.
Final Rays-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres ML (-154)
