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The Tampa Bay Rays will begin a three-game series this Friday against the New York Yankees in the Bronx. It will be an American League East showdown as we continue our MLB odds series with a Rays-Yankees prediction and pick.
Rays-Yankees Projected Starters
Ryan Pepiot vs. Max Fried
Ryan Pepiot (2-3) with a 4.24 ERA
Last Start: Pepiot did well in his last outing, going six innings while allowing one earned run on three hits while striking out three and walking two in a win over the San Diego Padres.
Away Splits: Pepiot is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his one road start.
Max Fried (5-0) with a 1.19 ERA
Last Start: Fried was dominant in his last start, allowing one run, none earned, on five hits, while striking out three and walking two in a win over the Blue Jays.
Home Splits: Fried has been perfect at home, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in three starts at Yankee Stadium.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rays-Yankees Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +168
New York Yankees: -1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -200
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
How to Watch Rays vs. Yankees
Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05 PM PT
TV: YES Network
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
Junior Caminero has hit the ball well since the season started, and continues to put the ball in good spaces. So far, he is hitting .257 with six home runs, 13 RBIs, and 17 runs. Christopher Morel has also been solid, while also being inconsistent, batting .235 with three home runs, 11 RBIs, and 12 runs. Meanwhile, Brandon Lowe is hitting .215 with four home runs, 15 RBIs, and nine runs. Jonathan Aranda has been consistent, batting four home runs, 13 RBIs, and 14 runs.
The offense has been hit or miss, ranking 11th in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, 20th in runs, 22nd in home runs, and 18th in slugging percentage.
Pepiot needs to hit his spots and avoid making mistakes against a dangerous lineup. When Pepiot comes out of the game, he will turn it over to a struggling bullpen that is just 22nd in bullpen ERA. If they can get him a lead, Pete Fairbanks will come into the game, and he is 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA with six saves.
The Rays will cover the spread if they can string together some hits and build an early lead to give their starting pitcher a better advantage. Then, they need to avoid making mistakes against some of the best sluggers in baseball.
Why The Yankees Will Cover The Spread/Win
Aaron Judge has mashed the ball all over the place this past month, and continues to put up historic numbers. Amazingly, he has hit .427 with 10 home runs, 32 RBIs, and 29 runs. Judge is on pace for 52 home runs, 166 RBIs, and 12o runs, which would be incredible. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt is batting .356 with two home runs, 13 RBIs, and 17 runs. Jazz Chisholm has struggled, hitting .181 with seven home runs, 17 RBIs, and 17 runs. Therefore, he looks to hit more consistently. Ben Rice is doing well, batting .266 with eight home runs, 13 RBIs, and 22 runs.
The offense has been on fire, ranking first in batting average, on-base percentage, home runs, and slugging percentage. Furthermore, the Yanks are also second in runs.
Fried nearly tossed a no-hitter against the Rays in his last start. Now, he hopes for the same kind of magic as he faces them again while intending to keep his perfect record intact. When Fried exits the game, he will turn it over to an excellent bullpen that is the third-best in baseball. Despite his struggles, Devin Williams is still the closer, coming in with a mark of 0-33 with a 9.00 ERA and six saves.
The Yankees will cover the spread if Judge and the rest of the lineup can find their sweet spots and drive the ball into a good area to set up some scoring. Then, they need Fried to dominate and make good pitches.
Final Rays-Yankees Prediction & Pick
The Rays are 13-17 against the spread, while the Yankees are 16-15. Additionally, the Rays are 5-4 against the spread on the road, while the Yanks are 9-6 against the spread at home. The Rays are 3-4 against the spread when facing the division, while the Yanks are 6-4.
The Rays are average again. Now, they will attempt to topple the Yankees and a man who almost no-hit them last time. Ultimately, I cannot see a world where they solve Fried so close after he dominated them. Therefore, I am rolling with the Yankees to win this game and cover the spread at home.
Final Rays-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-105)
