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It turns out signing arguably the best player in Major League Baseball helped the New York Mets' 2025 World Series odds.
The Mets agreed to a 15-year, $765 million megadeal with Juan Soto on Sunday night, sending the 25-year-old outfielder across town as New York's National League team looks to win its first World Series since 1986.
Before Sunday, FanDuel had the Mets' World Series odds at +1200. All told, not exactly insulting at this point in the offseason. By the time the Soto news made the rounds, however, the Mets were at +900, the fourth-most-likely team to hoist the Commissioner's Trophy next fall.
Ironically, they still trail the New York Yankees, whom they beat for Soto. The Yankees are +850 as of this writing.
The reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers are the overwhelming favorites to repeat, coming in at +370. That shouldn't be too shocking. The Dodgers managed to win it all in 2024 despite a flood of injuries. If they can get healthy, they can be far better next year — and that's not even accounting for Blake Snell, whom LA has already signed, and anyone else the aggressive-spending front office locks up in the coming months.
The Atlanta Braves come in at No. 2 with +800 World Series odds.
Juan Soto's power expected to dip slightly with Mets
Soto hit a career-high 41 home runs in his lone season with the Yankees, and even though he actually hit one more on the road than at home, playing his home games at Yankee Stadium no-doubt helped. Yankee Stadium ranks as the third-most-home-run-friendly ballpark in the majors for left-handed hitters over the last three years, per Statcast, compared to Soto's former home of Petco Park, which ranks 20th.
The Mets' home of Citi Field ranks 21st, and FanDuel seems to have adjusted. The sportsbook places Soto's home run total at 34.5, giving him +106 odds for the over and -136 for the under. The last two years have been the only two seasons in Soto's career where he has hit more than 34 home runs. He hit 35 in 2023 with the San Diego Padres.
Playing home games at Citi Field doesn't necessarily mean Soto is due for a power dip. Mets fans need look no further than Pete Alonso, a career Met who has hit 40-or-more homers three times. His career splits show a slight edge toward opposing ballparks, but the difference is a 6.8% home run rate at Citi Field vs. 7.5% on the road.
Now if the Mets can also bring back Alonso and have him bounce back from a down year, an already intriguing upcoming summer in Queens could become downright thrilling.
