The New Orleans Saints have rebuilt their up-and-coming roster and have their sights set on making a big leap as they face one of the NFL's easiest schedules. Below, we continue our NFL odds series with an over/under win total prediction for the New Orleans Saints.
Plagued by injuries at receiver and along the offensive line, the Saints underperformed with a 7-10 record in the first year under coach Denis Allen. In one-score games, the Saints finished 5-6, headlined by gut-wrenching losses to the Bengals, Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Vikings in London.
Despite the injuries and being held back by the play at quarterback, New Orleans' offense was statistically right in the middle of the pack in passing metrics and slightly below average in running the football.
It was essentially a season of two halves for the defense, which gave up a whopping 28.5 points per game through the first seven games before containing the final 10 opponents to just 14.5 PPG.
Relative to the rest of the league, the Saints were much more susceptible to the run than the pass, as they surrendered the ninth-most rushing yards and the second-fewest yards through the air. But despite applying consistent pressure and tying for the fifth-most sacks (48), the Saints produced the third-fewest interceptions (seven) in the league.
Losing three of their starting defensive linemen in free agency won't help matters either, even though the Saints found some decent and cost-saving replacements off the open market.
Can the Saints overcome some of their departures and make a playoff run in the wide-open NFC South? Without further ado, let's take a look at the Saints' over/under odds.
Here are the latest NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NFL Odds: Saints Over/Under Win Total
Over 9.5 Wins: +120
Under 9.5 Wins: -148
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Why New Orleans Could Hit The Under
The Saints' offensive line remains an average unit, at best, but there's room for improvement as three of the starters are under the age of 26. There's also continuity, as four of last year's regular starters return to the lineup. The only exception is at left tackle, where 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning is expected to replace James Hurst.
It also may take some time for New Orleans' offense to fully get on the same page with Derek Carr taking over under center in a new system and Alvin Kamara's likely suspension still looms large. But aside from trying to replace three quality starters along the defensive line, the biggest factor in the Saints' over/under odds will likely be the health and depth of the receiving corps, and whether Derek Carr can bounce back from last year's performance.
Raiders receiver Hunter Renfrow has been named as one of the Saints' top trade targets, as New Orleans has already signed three of Carr's teammates from Las Vegas, a team that's now stacked with slot receivers.
Michael Thomas was one of the NFL's top receivers during his first four seasons, but he's now on the wrong side of 30 and has been plagued with injuries, appearing in just 10 games since the end of the 2019 season.
Chris Olave was one of the league's top rookies last year, and Rashid Shaheed really impressed as a rookie UDFA and legitimate deep threat, especially down the stretch, hauling in 20 receptions for 324 yards and a score in the team's final five games. A.T. Perry could also prove to be one of the top late-round steals from the 2023 NFL Draft. But given the lengthy injury history of Thomas, the health and depth of the receiving corps could play a major role in the Saints' over/under win total.
Why New Orleans Could Hit The Over
With a very favorable schedule, especially early in the season, it's easy to see why we're expecting a hot start from this team in the Saints' game-by-game predictions. Even when we account for a mid-season three-game losing streak at home and New Orleans splitting the series with a pair of division rivals, it's hard not to like the over for the Saints' over-under win total.
With road tests against the Patriots and rebuilding Packers in the first five weeks of the season, New Orleans should completely avoid any potential cold weather games this season. Facing at least three rookie quarterbacks in the first eight weeks of the season, along with three underwhelming starters that are feeling the pressure in Ryan Tannehill, Jordan Love, and Baker Mayfield over that same stretch, and it's easy to see the Saints getting off on the right foot in 2023.
Moreover, with the arrivals of free agent Jamaal Williams and third-round rookie Kendre Miller, the Saints have some much-needed insurance for the anticipated Alvin Kamara suspension. The wide receiver room could become one of the best in the NFC if New Orleans can stay healthy at the position, or if Hunter Renfrow is picked up in a trade later this summer.
The tight end room is also underrated, with Juwan Johnson coming off a bit of a breakout third season, with 42 receptions for 508 yards and seven touchdowns. Foster Moreau was initially expected to miss the 2023 season after being diagnosed with Hodgkin's Lymphoma a few months ago after signing a three-year deal with the Saints, but miraculously he was a full participant at OTA's and he should continue to be a reliable No. 2 tight end for Derek Carr.
Swiss-Army knife Taysom Hill remains a potential X-factor any time he steps on the field after compiling 892 all-purpose yards (with a career-high 575 rushing yards) and 11 touchdowns last season.
And despite the lack of turnovers last year, the secondary remains the biggest strength of this team, headlined by cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo and safeties Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu.
Final Saints Over/Under Prediction & Pick
With an up-and-coming and battle-tested roster and soft schedule in a weak division, the Saints are well-equipped to overcome the obstacles on their schedule and return to the playoffs. It's a seemingly safe bet to take the over on the Saints' over/under prediction.
Final Saints Over/Under Pick & Prediction: Over 9.5 Wins: +120
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