NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 14: Home stretch begins

Week 14 of the NFL season is here. With Thanksgiving in the rearview mirror and the final bye week upon us, it’s time for the mad dash for playoff spots, seeding, and draft position. The slate this week starts with possibly the game of the week as NFC North rivals and Super Bowl contenders the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers square off. It’s an incredible matchup to kick us off, so without further ado, here are the ClutchPoints NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Last Thursday, it wasn’t the tryptophan putting you to sleep. It was the NFL games. The Lions limped to a win early, the Dallas Cowboys beat the New York Giants in a near-unwatchable game, and the Packers blew out the Miami Dolphins in primetime.

Luckily, the Las Vegas Raiders put up a valiant fight on Black Friday, Sunday afternoon had some exciting contests, Clark Kent (shhh, don’t tell anyone he’s really Josh Allen) played a fun snow globe game Sunday night, and Bo Nix and Jameis Winston threw it all over the yard on Monday to salvage the weekend.

Now, we enter the witching hour of the NFL season, where good seasons bring Super Bowl dreams and bad ones bring hope for high draft picks.

All 32 teams played last week and 26 of those teams have already had their 2024 byes. So, on the NFL Week 14 calendar, we say goodbye to the only six teams who haven’t, which are the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and Washington Commanders.

For the final bye-mageddon, the game schedule gives us the fantastic Thursday matchup mentioned above, seven 1 p.m. ET games, three games in the late Sunday window, and then the traditional Sunday night and Monday night affairs.

The frozen turkey in the deep fryer wasn’t the only thing on fire last week! We were hotter than a bird right out of the oven Thanksgiving weekend going an incredible 12-4 straight up and a mind-blowing 13-3 against the spread. That means our picking winner percentage only grows higher, now at 117-78, and we finally reach the top of Mount .500. After a slow start to the season, the NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds column has battled back and is now 97-97-1 against the number.

With that, let’s get right into the NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds.

Previous Weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Yes, the Lions’ injuries on defense are piling up and they didn’t win that convincingly on Thanksgiving. But let’s pump the breaks a little. They still got the W in a division game and that defense gave up just six points per game in the two previous contests. Maybe this is the game Detroit falls off its pedestal as the best team in the league right now, but until it actually happens, it’s hard to say they’re not.

That’s not to say the Packers aren’t a good team that will cause problems in the playoffs. But on the flip side from the Lions, their decisive victory on Thanksgiving may have been more about the Dolphins' absolute refusal to play well in the cold than it was about the Packers being a buzzsaw.

Pick: Lions 27-21

UPDATE: While the Lions did win an exciting game, Vegas got us with the hook as Detroit only won by a field goal. 

Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Give credit to the Raiders, they do show up in division games, especially against the Chiefs. Unfortunately for Raider Nation, this Buccaneers matchup is not an AFC West tilt nor against the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Bucs have played arguably the three worst teams in the league the last three weeks with games against the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders. They smoked the G Men and beat the Panthers in overtime. Right now, the Raiders are a lot closer to the Giants than the resurgent Panthers, so this should be a blowout.

Pick: Buccaneers 26-6

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

The last time the Browns and Steelers met it was on a Thursday, in Cleveland, in a snowstorm. That’s why it wasn’t a huge shock that the Browns upset their playoff-bound AFC North brethren on that day. Since then, we’ve seen more of the real Jameis Winston, the NFL QB most likely to throw four touchdowns and four interceptions in each and every game.

Also, since then, the Steelers have done what we at the NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds column weren’t quite sure they could do, and that is win a high-scoring shootout. In Week 13, they took down the Bengals 44-38 in a wild one. This seems like it could be another shootout with the Steelers winning but now covering. However, with the King of Giving Away the Backdoor Cover on the other side, let’s go Steelers.

Pick: Steelers 33-23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

What a matchup we have here between who cares and zzzzzzzzzzzz. This game features massive stakes, likely determining which teams get the third pick of the draft and which one gets the fourth. And when Mac Jones and Will Levis square off, you know it’s going to be a barn-burner.

In all seriousness, though, the Jaguars have more talent, even without the now-out-for-the-season Trevor Lawrence but the Titans seem to show up and play hard more often. That might scream “take the points!” to many but the Jags have been horrific on the road, terrible in Tennessee, and suffered a massive loss last week. That’s why the NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds column will take the team seemingly still playing for wins.

Pick: Titans 14-7

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5)

The Panthers’ point differentials in the last four games have been +1, +3, -3, and -3. They are still not a great team by any means, but they are playing hard and Bryce Young has rebounded admirably after his benching this season. Carolina doesn’t have enough to win this game, but it shouldn’t be a blowout.

This pick has almost nothing to do with the Eagles. They are one of the best teams in the league right now and Saquon Barkley is an absolute monster right now. They should win this game somewhat comfortably. What this pick is all about is the belief that the Panthers will put up an admirable fight.

Pick: Eagles 27-20

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

The Kirk Cousins Revenge Game is one of the most interesting matchups on the board for several reasons. The Vikings are doing great without their former QB and his new team is struggling, but if the 36-year-old signal-caller has one last gasp left in him it seems like this would be the game to show it.

Here’s the thing, though. All the narratives aside, both these teams play a lot of close games, and the Vikings have found a way to win (for the most part) in those games while the Falcons (for the most part) have found a way to lose. So, that seems as good a way as any to predict how this game will turn out.

Pick: Vikings 22-20

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6)

The Dolphins have become one of, if not, the most predictable teams in the NFL over the last few seasons. If they are playing a good team, and/or in cold weather, and/or face pretty much any adversity at all, take the other side. In the fun and the sun against a sub-.500 squad? The ‘Phins may put up 40!

Yes, this is a division game and those often tend to be closer affairs than the spread suggests. However, the circumstances here, with Miami in its element and New York continuing to circle the drain, seems like it sets up perfectly for a Doplhins romp, which will shine a light on the shortcomings of both franchises.

Pick: Dolphins 31-13

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New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at New York Giants

With Drew Lock at the helm, the Giants should be decent and the Saints have their own problem, so in a vacuum, there is no reason this game couldn’t be close in the cold New Jersey air on Sunday. So, it comes down to whether the G Men have truly given up on the season as it seems they have losing the last seven straight.

We’ve been burned in the NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds column before by believing in the Giants (see Week 13) and then getting burned by them, but for some reason, they pull us back in. This week, outdoors in (an actually-not-that-cold-for-Jersey 40 degrees), we’ll throw caution to the win and take Big Blue to get one last win on the season against the up-and-down Saints.

Pick: Giants 15-14

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

These are the teams that the NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds column believed in and they burned us in Week 13 section. Following the Giants in this group is the Cardinals. While we know the Cards are inconsistent, they’ve done us right overall for most of the season. And with all inconsistent (not bad, just volatile), there will be surprisingly good with the surprisingly bad.

Ultimately, we don’t believe that the Seahawks are quite as good as they’ve seemed the last few weeks and the Cardinals are a little better than last week showed. That means the Cardinals win this game by at least a field goal to keep the NFC West a complete toss-up this season.

Pick: Cardinals 19-16

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

The Bears finally cut ties with Matt Eberflus after his umpteenth late-game crew-up of the season, and now the impressive Thomas Brown is in charge. If you are a regular reader, you know the NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds column is a big believer in the new-coach bump. Chicago will show why this weekend.

In addition to the Bears showing up for Brown (and to celebrate their newfound freedom), the 49ers are finally done. The Christian McCaffrey injury was the final straw in the Super Bowl hangover season from hell, and this game will show it. The league has caught up with Shanahan (and his acolytes, see: Mike McDaniel) a bit, and the injuries are now just too much. This will be another ugly loss for the home favorites.

Pick: Bears 24-19

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams

There are plenty of reasons the Bills could lose this game. They are flying across the country after playing on Sunday night and have a big game against the Lions coming next week. It wouldn’t be a shock if this was a letdown game after several weeks of high-pressure games and a big one on the horizon.

That said, the Bills are the much better team and Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and having a ton of fun doing it. Buffalo has always played well in the cozy confines of LA in recent years, and they have just too much firepower for their NFC West opponent right now. This one could be over early. Bills by a billion.

Pick: Bills 30-20

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

The easiest money in the game these days seems to be to pick the Chiefs to win but not cover. However, this team has been living dangerously for too long, and after pulling wins out of their [redacted] against terrible teams, it is time that a playoff team jumps up and bites them.

Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are on the precipice of being good, but of the four teams in playoff contention that they’ve played — Steelers, Chiefs, Cardinals, Ravens — they’ve lost to them all. The only possible playoff team they’ve beaten was the Falcons last week, and they needed a Kirk Cousins meltdown to do it. This team needs a statement win, and on Sunday night, they’ll get it.

Pick: Chargers 28-27

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

This is a perfect spot for these paper tigers to act like a bully and beat up on a team whose ship be sinking, as Michael Ray Richardson would say. The Bengals don’t have the wherewithal to win games against good teams in order to make the playoffs, but they sure have the talent on offense to beat up on the bad ones.

Cincinnati has three straight losses to playoff teams heading into Monday and has taken an L against every playoff hopefully on their schedule (and the Patriots in Week 1). The Cowboys did enough to beat the lowly Giants this week, but that was a last gasp against a team actually worse than them. This embarrassment at home might finally cost Mike McCarthy his job, despite what Dak Prescott says.

Pick: Bengals 35-15

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