NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 3: Patriots give Jets a scare

ClutchPoints is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or in any way connected to any sportsbook. Gambling is not offered on this website in any form.

The NFL Week 3 slate kicks off with another AFC East showdown this Thursday as the New England Patriots welcome Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets to Foxborough. The Jets are six-point favorites on the road for this tilt, but if we’ve seen one thing so far in 2024 it is that underdogs are ruling the roost, going 9-5-1 against the spread in Week 2. Do the Patriots have what it takes to keep this rolling, or do the Jets break the trend? We’ll find out that and more here in the ClutchPoints NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column.

In Week 2, we got some answers to a few burning questions from Week 1. No, teams like the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, and Las Vegas Raiders aren’t as bad as they seemed opening weekend. But yes, the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants seem like they are in as rough shape as we all thought.

This weekend, the NFL schedule gets a little wonky, but at least there aren’t 10 early-window Sunday games to try and keep track of. On the NFL Week 3 docket, we have a Thursday game, seven games early on Sunday, five later in the day, a Sunday night clash, and not one, but two, Monday night matchups.

After a tough Week 1, we’ve recalibrated a bit and did better against the spread, but slightly worse picking winners in the second frame. For the NFL Week 2 picks, predictions, and odds column, we were 7-9 straight up and 6-10 ATS. That puts us at 16-16 picking winners this year and 10-22 versus the number. It’s been a wacky NFL season so far, but with more info, the picks should continue to get better.

With that, let’s get right into the NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds.

Previous Weeks: Week 1| Week 2

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6)

Full Jets-Patriots betting preview

The Patriots are coming off an overtime game facing a short week and that often doesn’t bode well for teams in that situation. However, they are at home on a Thursday, which does make things a little easier. The Jets looked better last week, taking care of business against the Titans.

Thursdays can get wonky and get out of hand quickly, as last week’s Bills romp over the Dolphins did. Still, the Patriots are a little better than predicted this season, and the Jets, so far, are a little worse. That’s why this seems like a Gang Green win but a Pats cover.

Pick: Jets 23-20

UPDATE: The Jets did win the game but in a more dominant fashion than expected here, so the Patriots didn't cover. 

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6)

The Giants made history in Week 2, becoming the only squad in NFL history to score three touchdowns, not allow a TD, and still lose. On the flip side, the Browns rebounded nicely from a lackluster Week 1 performance to beat the Jaguars in Week 2 by five.

After that, there are reasons to think the Giants can keep this close and maybe not win, but at least cover. However, the overall talent discrepancy here is massive, and the Browns defense will mess with Daniel Jones more like the Vikings did and the Commanders didn’t. This game could get ugly for the G Men in the end.

Pick: Browns 24-9

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

Last week, the Bears and Colts both had disappointing weeks. Chicago had a shot to win a game they didn’t deserve to win with the ball down six in the last minute against the Texans. Indianapolis had a golden opportunity to beat a Jordan Love-less Packers side but blew the game to Malik Willis.

Neither of these teams is all that good and the jury is still out on these young QBs, Caleb Williams and Anthony Richardson. Either team could show up and look good or lay an egg at this point, so let’s take the Colts and their running game at home here but just slightly more than a point-and-a-half.

Pick: Colts 16-13

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The Texans are 2-0 but they’ve won by less than a touchdown over the two teams above, the Colts and the Bears. The Vikings also beat up on a tomato can in the Giants, but had maybe the most impressive win of the week last Sunday, beating the 49ers by six.

Fans and bettors alike are still scared to buy into the Sam Darnold-led Vikings and Justin Jefferson did leave last week’s game (although he says he is now “on track” to go for Week 3). The Vikings defense, led by Brian Flores should be getting more credit, too, as they’ve only given up 23 points this season. Look for the Vikings to continue their winning ways at home.

Pick: Vikings 24-23

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

After smacking the Cowboys around early and often, the Saints are starting to look like one of the best teams in the NFC this season. Can that be real with Derek Carr leading the show? That's what we want to know here in the NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Over the next 15 games, and maybe more, we will find the answer to that, but for now, what is seemingly true is that the Eagles defense isn’t as good as it’s cracked up to be. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak should be able to take advantage of this and keep the Saints on a roll while dropping the Eagles to 1-2.

Pick: Saints 30-23

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Speaking of the best teams in the NFC, the next game in the NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column involves the 2-0 Buccaneers who beat the Lions to stake their claim as one of the top teams in their division. Meanwhile, the Broncos looked like a relatively weak squad led by a rookie QB in Week 2 vs. the Steelers, because that is exactly what they are.

Oddsmakers are starting to give the Buccaneers more of the respect they deserve, but they still aren’t all the way there. This game should be the Baker Mayfield and the Bucs by a comfortable margin.

Pick: Buccaneers 29-15

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

The Packers pulled out a big win at home last week with Malik Willis at the controls, shocking many, including the author of this NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column. While Jordan Love is back at practice this week, the Pack will likely start Willis for at least one more game.

On the Titans side, they are 0-2 after losing to the Bears and the Jets with identical 24-17 scores. QB Will Levis just seems to make several head-scratching plays a game, which ultimately cost his team. That said, the Titans moved the ball well against the Jets and it would be easy for Willis to come back down to earth this week, so in a league of parity, let’s say the Titans take this one by a field goal.

Pick: Titans 17-14

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

Jim Harbaugh kept his team on the East Coast this week, so they didn’t have to fly across the country three times in seven days, and in two games the team is undefeated against the two teams playing below, the Panthers and Raiders. The Steelers are undefeated, too, but only have one offensive touchdown this season.

The public is all over the Chargers this week, which is always a little scary, and the Steelers defense is one of the best units in the NFL this season. This will be a rough, tough, ground, and pound game, and in The Steel City, I like the home team by a slim margin.

Pick: Steelers 19-17

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)

Last week, the Panthers were in the easiest game to pick, and I simply wrote, “The Panthers stink. That is all. Chargers by a lot.” I was right, but things have changed here in the NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column. Bryce Young is out, and Andy Dalton is in. Putting a professional quarterback in with the Carolina offense should make a big difference.

And while the Raiders got the win over the Ravens last week, they still seem like a Jekyll and Hyde team, who could bring their A Game or sleepwalk through four quarters in a given week. I like the one-week new QB bump this week to get the Panthers their first, and maybe only, win of the season.

Pick: Panthers 26-20

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)

Last week, Malik Willis came in for an injured Jordan Love and won a game for his team. This week, Skyler Thompson (or maybe the recently signed Tyler Huntley) will try and do the same. The big difference here is the pedigree of Willis vs. Thompson and the nature of the starter’s injury. For the Dolphins, Thompson isn’t the prospect Willis still is on some level and Tua Tagovailoa’s injury is much more grim than Love’s.

Also, the Packers beat a middling Colts team in Week 2, and the Seahawks are a much better team than the AFC South squad. In the Pacific Northwest, let’s take the Seahawks to win comfortably.

Pick: Seahawks 23-10

Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

The Lions were probably the trendiest Super Bowl pick this season, and we all know while picking newly good teams like Detroit is fun, they rarely go all the way. Some of this has shown up already, as the Lions squeaked by the Rams in Week 1 and lost to the Buccaneers in Week 2.

On the flip side, after getting worked by the Bills, the Cardinals looked like a world-beater in Week 2, smoking the Rams 41-10. Despite the results, the Lions still have more talent, and we’ll have to see the Cardinals do this more than once to believe it’s true. Let’s take the Lions, even though we’re giving points on the road.

Pick: Lions 25-21

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The 0-2 Ravens against the freshly-whooped Cowboys is one of the most intriguing games in the NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column. To steal a phrase from Bill Simmons, this may be a “loser leaves town match.”

Both these squads seem to have systemic issues that will stop them from being elite teams in 2024. Still, they are also both loaded with talent even if the coaching staffs are struggling.  While conventional wisdom is that the Ravens are the better (and better-cached) team, the Cowboys have been a different team at home the last few years (last week notwithstanding) so they should show up for this one.

Related NewsArticle continues below

Pat McAfee’s honest take on Amari Cooper ‘heist’ with Browns2h

Bills release WR in first move after Amari Cooper trade2h

Grading Bills-Browns Amari Cooper trade3h

Amari Cooper’s immediate reaction to Bills trade3h

Pick: Cowboys 28-27

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Both these teams are struggling with health heading into Week 3. For the 49ers, they will be without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. And the Rams will be without, well, pretty much everybody.

This game is almost like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay each taking the headset for a high school team and just seeing who is a better coach. While I personally think McVay is the answer to that question, Shanahan still has the better available players in this one. The Niners will win, but McVay won’t go down without a fight against his good pal.

Pick: 49ers 30-27

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Although the 2024 NFL season started three weeks ago, the Chiefs continue to hit the snooze button because they know that as long as they wake up by Week 14 or so, they’ll be able to make it to work (the playoffs) on time and still do their job at an incredibly high level.

Kirk Cousins and the Falcons finally woke up themselves last week, pulling a victory out of their Dirty Birds thanks to a little luck and Saquon Barkley. That game did show the team can be a good one this season, so look for them to play even better in Week 3. They could pull the upset straight up, but this seems like a narrow Chiefs win and a Falcons cover.

Pick: Chiefs 25-24

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5)

In Week 1, Josh Allen told the NFL world that he doesn’t need name-brand wide receivers in 2024. In Week 2, he showed that he doesn’t need pass-catchers at all, in fact. However, in Week 3, I like the Bills QB to throw the ball around the yard again to remind folks he can still do it as well or better than anyone in the league right now.

As for the Jaguars, the team is a perennial underperformer with a dead man walking as head coach. This will be another nail in Doug Pederson’s coffin on national TV.

Pick: Bills 35-20

Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Did the Bengals figure something out last week or did they just turn up for their perceived rivals who they are built to compete with? I’d lean toward the latter as their problems from Week 1 — Joe Burrow’s wrist, the offensive line, the run defense, Ja’Marr Chase’s contract unhappiness — are all still there.

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders may be ready to pull a big upset like this, but even if they’re not, it feels like they will be able to keep this one close like they did with the Giants, even if it means kicking 20 field goals this week.

Pick: Bengals 17-15

Establish the Pass Podcast Week 3 Predictions