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The Jacksonville Jaguars Week 3 game against the Houston Texans features one of the largest betting lines of the 2023 NFL season. Our Jaguars-Texans predictions suggest that Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville are about to make a statement against the worst team in the AFC South.
The Jaguars are coming off a 17-9 loss against the Kansas City Chiefs in their home opener. There's certainly no shame in losing to Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champions, though Jacksonville had plenty of opportunities to upset the Chiefs. In Week 1, the Jaguars beat the Indianapolis Colts 31-21. A Jaguars Week 3 victory would give Jacksonville an early 2-0 record within the division.
Although they have a new head coach and a rookie quarterback, it appears that little has changed for the Texans, at least for now. Houston is off to a 0-2 start, seemingly headed for one of the worst records in football, yet again. The Baltimore Ravens dispatched the Texans rather easily with a 25-9 Week 1 victory. Even after losing Anthony Richardson to a concussion, the Colts beat the Texans 31-20 in Week 2.
It's easy to see why the Jaguars are such heavy favorites. Jacksonville is laying 8.5 points against the visiting Texans at FanDuel Sportsbook. Is a Jaguars Week 3 victory a foregone conclusion?
Let's make some bold Jaguars Week 3 predictions. Note that these are bold predictions. The predictions aren't likely to come to fruition, but they have a better chance of happening than what the odds indicate.
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3. Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence will have 300-plus passing yards, three passing touchdowns and no interceptions
The 2023 season is supposed to be Lawrence's coming-out party. The quarterback took a step forward in Year No. 2 and delivered Jacksonville a playoff win. In Year No. 3, there's an expectation among many observers that Lawrence should enter the MVP conversation. If Lawrence is going to be considered among the five or so best quarterbacks in football, he should put up huge numbers against the lowly Texans.
Lawrence has been fine in the Jaguars' first two games. He's had his moments, but the former No. 1 overall pick has fallen well short of spectacular, particularly in Week 2 when he didn't lead a single touchdown drive. Expect Week 3 to be much different when the Jaguars host a Texans team that has surrendered 56 points in two games.
Jacksonville had a bunch of near misses against Kansas City. The Jaguars didn't score any touchdowns in three trips to the red zone. Lawrence threw four would-be touchdown passes that weren't turned into scores because Jacksonville receivers weren't able to get both feet in bounds. Those close calls could go for touchdowns against a Houston defense that's surrendered the second-highest completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.
Lawrence's over/under is 249.5 passing yards in Week 3 at FanDuel.
2. Houston Texas QB CJ Stroud will have 300-plus passing yards and take at least five sacks
When the Jaguars-Texans game is over, CJ Stroud's stats are probably going to look halfway decent. Those numbers might not tell the whole story. Stroud could finish with a ton of passing yards in a lopsided loss, and he might take a ton of punishment along the way.
If Lawrence and the Jaguars have a big day offensively, the Texans will probably be forced to air it out early and often. It's what happened in Week 2 when Houston's defense couldn't stop Indianapolis and Stroud threw the ball 47 times for 384 yards. In the season opener, the No. 2 overall draft pick had 44 pass attempts. Stroud was sacked five times in Week 1 and six times in Week 2.
Stroud will likely have a lot of pass attempts with a measure of success, especially later in the game. Only seven teams have given up more passing yards per game than the Jaguars in the early going. Stroud has shown early signs of being the quarterback that Houston hoped it was getting at the top of the draft.
Stroud's over/under is 235.5 passing yards at FanDuel. He surpassed that number in each of his first two games.
1. The Jaguars and Texans will combine to score at least 53 points
About 48 hours before kickoff, the total for the Jaguars-Texans game is 44.5 at FanDuel. The alternate total of 52.5 comes with +235 odds for the over. Those odds are probably too high for what should be a relatively high-scoring affair in Week 2.
If Lawrence and Stroud are both going to throw for at least 300 yards, a lot of points are going to be scored. Jacksonville is primed for a breakout offensive performance. Houston's offense looks like it can be better than expected. Don't be surprised if this turns out to be one of the most exciting matchups on Sunday's schedule.
