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The New England Patriots have experienced a great deal of change during the 2025 NFL season. New England replaced Jerod Mayo with Mike Vrabel, the first of many improvements during an eventful offseason.
Vrabel got right to work building New England's roster in his image. The Patriots brought in several talented players in free agency, including veteran WR Stefon Diggs and ascending defensive lineman Milton Williams.
New England also brought in a talented rookie class during the 2025 NFL Draft. Will Campbell, TreVeyon Henderson, and Kyle Williams should all make an immediate impact on offense.
Now that the Patriots have upgraded the roster, it is now time to start projecting how well they will perform during the regular season.
The complete 2025 NFL schedule was released on Wednesday night at 8PM ET. That makes it as good a time as any to make some predictions about how the Patriots will fare in 2025.
Will the Patriots compete for a playoff spot in a loaded AFC? Or will they simply show signs of improvement during the first year of the Vrabel era?
Below we will take a look at New England's schedule and give a game-by-game prediction for each matchup.
Week 1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Patriots are a more complete team than the Raiders. But they cannot match Las Vegas when it comes to superstar talent.
Brock Bowers has already proven to be a dangerous tight end. Not only will he receive an upgrade at quarterback with Geno Smith, he'll also get plenty of help from opposing defenses selling out to stop Ashton Jeanty.
Meanwhile, superstar Maxx Crosby demands extra attention on defense. New England has a shaky offensive line as it is, so going up against Crosby and friends could be a huge problem.
I see the Patriots losing this game because of a few big plays forced by the Raiders' best players. LOSS
Record: 0-1
Week 2 at Miami Dolphins
At this point in the offseason, I think the Dolphins could be in for an ugly season.
The entire NFL has seen Miami's deficiencies over the past few seasons. Especially in 2024 after Tua Tagovailoa went down with a scary concussion.
The Dolphins have put in the work to improve the roster this offseason. However, they've also lost Terron Armstead to retirement and are flirting with the idea of trading away Jalen Ramsey.
My hot take is that Miami will finish last in the AFC East, so I can't in good conscience give the Dolphins a win here. WIN
Record: 1-1
Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I feel that this game is almost impossible to predict at this point in the offseason.
Pittsburgh still hasn't settled the Aaron Rodgers question one way or another. It is hard to bet too heavily on Pittsburgh considering their quarterback situation. But that's exactly what I'm going to do.
The Steelers are one of the best coached teams in the NFL during the Mike Tomlin era. They also have a talented roster when looking past their quarterback questions.
If the Patriots win this game, it will be a statement victory. I'm just not convinced it will happen in 2025. LOSS
Record: 1-2
Week 4 vs. Carolina Panthers
It feels weird to say, but I think the Panthers have the more talented offense of these two teams. Thankfully, New England has a much better defense than Carolina.
Both teams prefer to run the football, which plays to New England's favor if this is a low-scoring game.
The Panthers may like running the football, but they may not be able to afford to do so if they fall behind early.
I see the Patriots capitalizing off a Bryce Young turnover. Once that happens, this game could break in New England's direction in a hurry. WIN
Record: 2-2
Week 5 at Buffalo Bills (SNF)
New England is the only AFC East team built to march into Buffalo and win a road game during the winter.
The Patriots have a stout defense that should hold up well against both the run and the pass. They also have a pair of talented running backs who make running the ball an easy choice.
They also have a head coach who loves to play bully ball, if his time coaching the Titans is any indication. Stylistically, that is a good counter to what Buffalo likes to do in the Josh Allen era.
All of that said, the Patriots are not ready for such a high-profile upset. Maybe next year. LOSS
Record: 2-3
Week 6 at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans feels like a team that is a year or two away from being where New England is right now.
Derek Carr's surprising retirement certainly makes the Saints look like a desirable opponent. The Saints will likely turn to rookie Tyler Shough as their starter in 2025. Respectfully, that is a dream scenario for the Patriots.
This game could get ugly, especially if New Orleans has a strong defensive performance.
Regardless, I simply cannot see the Saints winning this game, even at home. WIN
Record: 3-3
Week 7 at Tennessee Titans
This is a juicy revenge game.
The Titans will certainly be prepared to play against their former head coach. Tennessee may also view this as one of the more winnable games on their schedule.
I believe the Titans will will keep this game close for a complete 60 minutes.
That said, winning this game will be important to Mike Vrabel and the Patriots for almost exactly the same reasons.
Give me the Patriots thanks to advantages at head coach and quarterback. WIN
Record: 4-3
Week 8 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns feel like a complete mystery at this point in the 2025 NFL offseason.
Cleveland did add some talented players in the 2025 NFL Draft. The future is beginning to look bright for the Browns, as they can start to see the end of the Deshaun Watson tunnel.
But that future is still years away.
The Patriots should be more than capable of shutting down the Browns on offense, regardless of who their starting quarterback is.
Cleveland does have a dangerous defense because of Myles Garrett. Even so, I think the Patriots find a way to win an ugly game. WIN
Record: 5-3
Week 9 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I will be interested to watch New England's offense take on Atlanta's defense. Each unit is the weakness of both teams, in my opinion.
This game could be close, and matchups like that can end up making all the difference in the NFL.
I see the Patriots needing to play a perfect game on offense, or get lucky with turnovers, to win this one.
I'll lean on Atlanta's offensive skill players making enough plays to win this one. LOSS
Record: 5-4
Week 10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers will be a real acid test for the Patriots.
I view the Buccaneers as the perfect representation of a good, not great, NFL team in 2025. Tampa Bay has its flaws, but they have dominated the NFC South for a reason.
If the Patriots think they have arrived, they will need to win games against teams like the Buccaneers on a regular basis.
Personally, I think New England is a year away from winning games like this one. LOSS
Record: 5-5
Week 11 vs. New York Jets (TNF)
The Jets are not going to roll over and hand a game to the Patriots.
New York will look to make its mark during Aaron Glenn's first season as head coach.
The Jets have an incredible defense that is stacked with talent from top to bottom. Their offense could also be surprisingly potent with Justin Field at quarterback
Ultimately, I think New York's defense will be a big problem for New England. I see the Jets winning at least one game in this series. LOSS
Record: 5-6
Week 12 at Cincinnati Bengals
There's no doubt in my mind that Cincinnati will have this game circled on the calendar.
New England embarrassed Cincinnati in Week 1 of the 2024 season, getting a huge win in Jerod Mayo's first game as head coach.
That upset victory ended up costing the Bengals at the end of the regular season, essentially preventing them from going to the playoffs as a wild card team.
The Bengals will do whatever it takes to win this game. Their defense is certainly more questionable than last season, but I think they'll win this game with offensive fireworks. LOSS
Record: 5-7
Week 13 vs. New York Giants (MNF)
This game will put New England's offensive line to the test.
The Patriots have the advantage at quarterback and arguably at head coach. That's almost enough to make he give them the win.
But I'm worried that Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Kayvon Thibodeaux will make life hell for Drake Maye. I could even see the Patriots struggling to run the ball against the Giants' stout front seven.
I see New York winning this game thanks to either a crucial turnover or a special teams touchdown. LOSS
Record: 5-8
Week 14 BYE WEEK
Week 15 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Tom Brady era in New England feels like a long time ago. During those days, it felt inevitable that Brady and the Patriots would sweep the Bills.
But now it is a new era, and Josh Allen is playing the part of Tom Brady.
Don't get me wrong, the Patriots are much improved after the offseason. I believe they can still be a thorn in Buffalo's side, but they are not serious contenders for the AFC East crown just yet.
I see the Patriots putting up a heroic effort in this game but ultimately losing. LOSS
Record: 5-9
Week 16 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are the kind of team the Patriots would love to become.
Baltimore is absolutely loaded with stars on both sides of the football. Lamar Jackson is a perennial MVP favorite and Derrick Henry is a walking legend.
Forget the “any given Sunday” takes in this game, there's simply no chance the Patriots can win without extenuating circumstances.
If the Patriots are competitive in this game, that will be a victory in its own right. LOSS
Record: 5-10
Week 17 at New York Jets
The Patriots are one year ahead of the Jets in their rebuild.
It is easy to argue that New England has an advantage in this game at both head coach and quarterback.
The Jets certainly have star power on defense, but I just don't believe they'll sweep the Patriots in 2025.
Instead, I see the Jets and Patriots trading games this season. WIN
Record: 6-10
Week 18 vs. Miami Dolphins (TBD)
I am suspicious of the Dolphins in general heading into the 2025 season.
The Patriots are in year one under a new head coach, which makes this a potential trap game. That feels odd to say because the Dolphins will almost certainly be the betting favorite, even on the road.
Regardless, I just don't see the Dolphins pulling off this win outside of Miami.
Let's go bold and give the Patriots a big win here. WIN
Record: 7-10
