Although neither team finished with the best record in the American League, or second best for that matter, the pennant felt destined to run through the Lone Star State when the 2023 MLB playoffs began.
From a roster standpoint, they both packed the right amount of punch in their lineups and on the mound to mow through the rest of the AL bracket. Any talent deficiencies were negated by the Hall of Fame-caliber managers who were leading their respective clubhouses. Texas will potentially have two players finish in the top five for MVP voting (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien), while Houston carries more postseason credibility than any other baseball franchise right now.
But star power alone is not why this is the most fitting matchup for an ALCS showdown. This is a narrative many neutral baseball fans should be able to easily digest. While there might be some Astros fatigue, no one can argue against the historic dominance and persistence they have exhibited in this league. The Rangers were on the cusp of claiming AL West regular season supremacy before the defending World Series champions swooped in at the last minute to retain their crown.
That slip-up will be of no significance if they can obtain vengeance in this upcoming series. While the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays appeared to be worthy candidates to end Houston's AL reign of terror, it makes all too much sense for Texas to be its final roadblock to a third consecutive trip to the Fall Classic.
If a change in the baseball landscape is coming, it seems most likely to occur now. There is a lot to break down in this heavyweight collision, beyond just the result. Let's dive a little deeper, as we present four bold Rangers predictions for the 2023 ALCS versus Astros.
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4. Marcus Semien will have big ALCS
The two-time All-Star second baseman hit a red-hot .431 with four home runs and 12 RBIs in 13 games against Houston in 2023 and is also a strong contributor in a 14-game postseason sample size. So, forecasting Marcus Semien to smash the ball in this series is not exactly bold, right? Well, as we've seen, the past does not always matter in October.
Semien is 4-for-23 (.174) through five games in these playoffs. Texas has scored runs with ease almost all year long and battered both the Rays and Orioles. The team's usually lethal leadoff hitter has been unable to get it going, however. Although the Astros are not an ideal opponent to end a cold streak against, Semien should have plenty of opportunities to regain his Silver Slugger form.
Justin Verlander can be a nightmare to face with the AL Pennant on the line and is currently rolling into Game 1. Houston's other starters, however, are wild cards going into this series. Framber Valdez scuffled versus the Minnesota Twins and Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy still come with questions despite strong recent outings.
The unpredictably of the Astros' rotation will be the perfect kindling to start a fierce Marcus Semien fire.
3. Max Scherzer will make the ALCS roster and make an impact
As difficult as it is to awaken from a batting slump against the champs, it will likely be much harder to shake off a month's worth of rust when facing their experienced and dangerous lineup. Max Scherzer has dealt with his share of adversity during the 2023 season, but he can still end the year with another ring.
Assuming he is healthy, of course. The three-time Cy Young is doing everything he can to return from a shoulder injury in time for the Rangers' meeting with the Astros. He pitched a simulated game that left manager Bruce Bochy feeling encouraged about his chances to be added to the ALCS roster.
The organization gave up a big piece of its future for Scherzer ahead of the MLB trade deadline, so if the 39-year-old clears the necessary checkpoints, expect Bochy to trust the future Hall of Famer. That is an easy decision when looking at Scherzer's resume, but a far more unsettling one after examining his last outing versus Houston.
The right-hander got absolutely walloped at home on Sept. 6, allowing seven runs in just three innings of work. A disastrous showing that further validates the notion that Max Scherzer is finally on the decline. The end is undoubtedly near, but this star has another postseason gem in the tank. Or at least an abbreviated one (could be on pitch count).
2. Rangers' Nathaniel Lowe will enjoy a clutch showing vs. Astros
While players like AL MVP runner-up Corey Seager or Semien are standard choices to lead Texas in the ALCS, the MLB playoffs are often defined by non-household names stepping up in the biggest moments. Nathaniel Lowe is poised to be that guy for his team in this round.
The first baseman saw his batting average plunge 20 points in the final month of the regular season (.282-.262) and has hit just .182 in the postseason. Many fans are already well-aware that his mother is tragically battling brain cancer. Getting dialed in for a baseball game is an unimaginable task, but Lowe is also playing for something much bigger than himself.
I am not going to put pressure on the 2022 Silver Slugger or pretend to know what is going through his mind during this difficult time. But what I will do is evaluate the 28-year-old as the ballplayer Rangers fans know him to be.
Lowe recorded a career-high 82 RBIs, 38 doubles (tied for eighth in MLB) and a .360 on-base percentage in 2023. Most, importantly, though, he has the mold of an effective situational hitter. Much like his overall numbers, the southpaw's production with runners in scoring position (RISP) dipped and settled at a solid but unspectacular .264 batting average and .764 OPS. He can, however, hit a timely bloop single or flash extra base power when the Astros find themselves in a jam.
Call it part gut and part eye test, but I think Nathaniel Lowe is headed for a storybook series.
1. Rangers defeat the Astros in ALCS
You had to sense that we were building to this. Houston has the necessary championship experience and leadership to get the job done in October. Moreover, the team had a clear edge over Texas in the bullpen department, which always proves to be crucial at this point of the year. Yordan Alvarez and Jose Abreu are raking, Justin Verlander is dealing and Jose Altuve is primed to pad his already stellar postseason legacy.
But the Astros are running into their biggest AL threat yet. The Rangers possess the perfect offensive recipe to dethrone these perpetual rulers (seven-straight ALCS appearances). They can light up pitchers with a flurry of contact-based hits (second-best batting average) or a home run palooza (tied for third).
Yes, it's true that Houston extinguished this firepower during the season, winning nine of 13 head-to-head matchups, but this Texas squad was built for a deep MLB playoffs run. It is healthy, stacked with All-Star talent and led by a manager who has enjoyed three championship parades.
With a blueprint reliant on big-money free agents, rapidly developing homegrown talent (Josh Jung, Evan Carter) and big-game heroes (Nathan Eovaldi, Seager), the Rangers are the perfect group to release the league from the Astros' ironclad grip.
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