NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 1: Josh Allen, Bills outduel Aaron Rodgers, Jets

The 2023 NFL season is finally here, so it’s time for our NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds series.

In Week 1, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs opened up against the Detroit Lions on Thursday night, with the Lions pulling off an upset win on the road. After that, we get a full slate of Sunday games before the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants get the Sunday night stage to themselves. Finally, we wrap up with a Monday night AFC East showdown between Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets vs. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

The opening weekend of the NFL season is fantastic, but it’s also tough to bet on. As soon as Week 2, we’ll have some data to go on that will help figure out which teams are legit and which are fraudulent in 2023. In Week 1, though, everything is much more of a crapshoot. That won’t stop us from making these NFL Week 1 picks and predictions, though!

So, without further ado, let’s do the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds for each game on the NFL slate this coming week.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds.

NFL Week 1 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Full Lions-Chiefs betting preview

The 2023 NFL season should open with an absolute barn burner between two high-powered offenses. This is the Lions’ Super Bowl in Week 1, while the Chiefs know they have time to get things together in order to be ready for the playoff. Plus, without Chris Jones and possibly Travis Kelce, the Chiefs are not at full strength. That’s why the first bold Week 1 prediction is that the Lions pull off the upset.

Pick: Lions 35-31

Update: The Lions indeed pulled off the upset, stealing a 21-20 victory from the defending champions. 

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers and 49ers both come into the year with strong defenses and second-year quarterbacks. Kenny Pickett probably has the edge on Brock Purdy at this point, as he didn’t have offseason surgery like the 49ers QB did. Plus, this is a West Coast team coming east and playing at 1 p.m. ET, which rarely works out for the away team. With all this in mind, look for the Steelers not only to cover but to win outright, even with Nick Bosa in the fold.

Pick: Steelers 21-20

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

This NFC South matchup is one of the least-anticipated games on the slate, although it will be notable for the debuts of two highly touted first-round picks, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young and Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. There shouldn’t be much between these two teams this season, so despite being on the road, the Panthers should keep it close. They may not win, but Carolina should be competitive, as it seems like too much credit to give Atlanta more than a field-goal win.

Pick: Falcons 17-16

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

Maybe rookie QB CJ Stroud and the Texans get it together over the course of the year and start to rebuild the foundation of the franchise after several down years. That’s not happening in Week 1, though. The Ravens have a happy Lamar Jackson, tons of offensive weapons, a new offensive coordinator, and one of the better all-around rosters in the league. Baltimore rolls in this game.

Pick: Ravens 33-10

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns

The AFC North, top to bottom, is one of (if not) the most competitive divisions in the entire NFL this season. We’ll get a sneak peek at just how tough it will be to win the division when the reigning North champions travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns. Getting a win will require a total team effort, but this is truly a battle between QBs Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson. Burrow is dealing with some injuries this preseason, but when Joey Brrrr gets on the field, he’ll be ready to roll and outduel Watson for a last-possession victory. The Bengals can get the victory here but not cover.

Pick: Bengals 28-27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

We’ve seen this movie before. Baker Mayfield has proven he’s not a starting quarterback in the NFL, yet he is starting Week 1 for the Buccaneers. The Vikings got a lot of luck last season to go 13-4, and they may regress this year as the ball bounces the other way. However, Minnesota should win this game handily on talent alone, no luck needed.

Pick: Vikings 24-9

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-7)

We’ve made it through most of the teams that are likely to be bad this season, but the Cardinals are likely the worst. Journeyman Joshua Dobbs is expected to start this game against a Commanders defense that features five first-round picks in the starting lineup. Washington should win this game comfortably, and if they don’t do that, it could indicate real problems for the team in 2023.

Pick: Commanders 20-10

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3)

The Raiders couldn’t wait to get rid of Derek Carr, and now they might find out what the Saints learned the hard way once Drew Brees retired. Having a competent NFL quarterback is worth its weight in gold, and even if you have one that’s not perfect, that’s often way better than the alternative. Speaking of alternatives, the Titans drafted two alternatives to Ryan Tannehill, yet the veteran will still start Week 1. The Saints win this QB battle, which means they will win the game (at home) as well.

Pick: Saints 23-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Someday soon, Anthony Richardson may take the mantle of the next young superstar QB. For now, Trevor Lawrence holds that title, and he’s facing a rookie in his first start. If the Jaguars hope to make the playoffs again, they will have to dominate the weak teams in their division — like the Colts — and that starts on Sunday. The final verdict in this NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column is the Jaguars roll and easily cover.

Pick: Jaguars 28-13

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-4)

The first post-Russell Wilson season was a rousing success for the Seahawks, but now Geno Smith has to show he’s still the same QB he was last year and not the one he was for his first eight campaigns in the NFL. Luckily, the Seahawks have a soft opening against a team with a great coach in Sean McVay, a few legit stars in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald, and almost nothing else. Plus, Kupp will not even play because of a nagging hamstring injury. This will be the first W of the season for Seattle and the first step on the way to Caleb Williams or Drake Maye for LA.

Pick: Seahawks 24-10

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New England Patriots

The Eagles were the best team in the NFC last season and legitimately (at worst) the second-best team in the entire NFL last year. The Super Bowl losers bring much of the same squad back from last year’s team, and that talent should help ease the burden of losing both coordinators to head coaching roles. As for Bill Belichick and the Patriots, the devil is coming to collect on that deal the franchise made during the Tom Brady Era, and the Patriots are in trouble this season.

Pick: Eagles 35-16

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

Just a day or two ago, this NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column would have included a much different selection here that either included a Raiders outright win or at least a cover. However, the Chandler Jones drama drops Las Vegas into typical Raiders nonsense territory, which means this will be a typical Raiders result. Plus, Sean Payton seems to have recovered from his Nathaniel Hackett comments and will have his Broncos offense (and maybe even Russell Wilson) firing on all cylinders.

Pick: Broncos 27-21

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

Vegas seems not to know what to do with the NFL Week 1 odds on this game, which is why it gives the Bears the slightest of edges at home. Jordan Love will put in his application to be the Bears’ new co-owner along with Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers' defense will finally start to live up to the talent all the first-round picks on the roster bring. Still, Justin Fields could pull one out with some creative play calling and big runs. Either way, this should be incredibly close, which is why I’ll take the points.

Pick: Packers 20-19

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

This late-afternoon Sunday game is a matchup between two legit AFC playoff contenders. The Chargers and Dolphins even had similar seasons in 2022, finishing within a few spots of each other in scoring, passing yards, rushing yards, and scoring defense. However, the big mismatch here is with the head coach. Last we saw Mike McDaniel, he was giving the Bills everything they could handle with a third-string QB. Last we saw Brandon Staley, he was coughing up a 27-0 lead in the playoffs to the Jaguars. Give me McDaniel all the way.

Pick: Dolphins 27-24

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants

Just like with the Chargers-Dolphins tilt, the Cowboys and Giants match up incredibly closely in almost every aspect of the game except for their head coaches. Brian Daboll plays to his players’ strengths — even if they aren’t all that strong — and puts them in the best position to win. Mike McCarthy always seems to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. That’s why the Giants win this game and put the Cowboys in an early 0-1 hole in the ultra-competitive NFC East.

Pick: Giants 26-24

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets

Monday night. September 11. In New York City (well, New Jersey, but close enough). Aaron Rodgers’ debut. Josh Allen and the AFC East rival Bills coming to town. It doesn’t get much bigger than this. The final game of Week 1 could be the most explosive. This is an incredible matchup between two divisional rivals who could both be Super Bowl contenders. The big difference here is that Rodgers is winding down his Hall of Fame career while Allen is at the peak of his powers. That’s why the Bills pull this one out in a hard-fought Week 1 finale.

Pick: Bills 31-27

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