NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 16: Playoff position on the line

The NFL likes to make it hard to get all your holiday shopping done in time by putting two games on Saturday in the week ahead of Christmas. That said, having a game on in the background of the holiday party you have to attend this weekend will help make your friends and family more tolerable. So, ahead of the week’s massive Thursday NFC West matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, let’s dive into the ClutchPoints 2025 NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column.

With 13 teams officially eliminated and just five teams on the outside looking in, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. So, while that means there will be more than a few meaningless games this weekend, it also means there are some pseudo-playoff games on the schedule this week, starting with the Thursday banger.

In fact, half the games this week are between two teams, both in or still alive in the playoff race. This will make for some incredibly dramatic and fun football!

As we enter the home stretch with 16 games per weekend, this week we get a Thursday night matchup, two Saturday showdowns kicking at 5:00 pm and 8:20 pm ET, seven 1:00 p.m. ET games, four late-window tilts, a Sunday night affair, and a Monday nighter.

We fell back to earth a bit, especially versus the number, in Week 15 was as we went 9-7 straight up and 6-10 against the spread. Overall, we are now 132-92 straight up, and 99-121-4 ATS on the season.

Previous weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11  | Week 12 | Week 13| Week 14| Week 15

So, with that, let’s get right into the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)

Our narrative brain is screaming, “Stay away from Sam Darnold in a big game!” right now. However, the analytical side is saying that the Seahawks are home on a Thursday night, while the Rams are without their most accomplished wide receiver, and their best pass-catcher spent the morning of the game crafting a PR apology.

This is a bet on the Seahawks as a team, believing that on a Thursday night at home, they have enough running and defense to get past a division rival. If Darnold can shake off the big game choker label in the process, all the better.

Pick: Seahawks 24-21

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders

The Commanders stepped up to the plate last week and took down the Giants despite several signs pointing toward the G Men getting the win. This week, they take on another division foe. Do they have enough left in the tank to at least give the Eagles a hard time in a divisional matchup?

It may come back to bite us in the end, but we’ll once again doubt the aged Commanders. The Eagles are playing better at the right time of the year, as usual, and they should have the juice to take care of an NFC North foe with ease.

Pick: Eagles 28-18

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

This game is basically a pick ‘em as the division foes played a one-score game less than two weeks prior. On the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, the Bears fell just short. But the home-field advantage isn’t the only major difference 13 days later.

Green Bay will be without Micah Parsons and possibly Christian Watson, among others. With the injuries mounting and Chicago still playing well, we’ll take the home team to eek this one out. And if you can get this as a pick ‘em or even with the Packers -1.5, take it!

Pick: Bears 23-20

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

The Chargers are hot right now, winning their last three in a row, while the Cowboys are not, dropping back-to-back games. While it might seem like that screams take LA, the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column is going to take Dallas here.

Justin Herbert and company have found some good luck in these last few wins, while the Cowboys have been hit with some tough beats. And because nothing in the 2025 NFL seems to stay the same for very long, it’s time for these two franchises to swap fates. Plus, the public loves LA right now, which means we love Big D.

Pick: Cowboys 30-25

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at New York Giants

After consecutive solid games from J.J. McCarthy, it may make sense to fade the young quarterback, giving points on the road. However, the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column has been burned too many times by the Giants this season, so we’ll take our chances.

The Vikings are the better team, and they are better coached. It’s not easy to pick them as road favorites right now, but because of who the G Men are, we’ll hold our nose and do so.

Pick: Vikings 20-13

Buffalo Bills (-10.5) at Cleveland Browns

With a tough matchup with the Eagles looming and the Bills’ tendency to play to their level of competition, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see this become a close game late, and Josh Allen once again pulls out with his Superman routine. However, the second half (both in terms of season and game) Bills are on fire right now, so it’s tough to bet against them.

The big prediction here is that the Bills will win big, but Myles Garrett will also break the all-time NFL sack record with at least two Allen takedowns on Sunday.

Pick: Bills 35-12

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)

Right now, the Saints have a young quarterback playing well and could be on the uptick as a franchise. The Jets, on the other hand, have neither of those things right now. And while New York might actually play better on the road instead of in front of a half-empty MetLife Stadium, we’ll take the Saints to win this one by a full touchdown.

Pick: Saints 21-14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Carolina Panthers

Ok, let’s try this one more time. Last week, we believed in both the Buccaneers and the Panthers, and both let us down. So, while both teams are in tough spots right now, we have to figure out what we believe in most in this game.

It turns out that is the Panthers’ record at home this season. Carolina has been much better in its friendly confines than it has been away from it. So, while this game is a true coin flip, we’ll take the home dogs here.

Pick: Panthers 21-20

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins

How will the Quinn Ewers era start in Miami? Our guess is not good. Even a depressed Joe Burrow should be able to coax enough out of the offense to beat a Dolphins team that seems like it is truly throwing in the towel. If not, the problems in Cincy are even more massive than they already seem.

Pick: Bengals 31-20

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Tennessee Titans

What are the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes? Could they be among the worst teams in the league? Well, we’ll find out the answer to that on Sunday, when the Chiefs head to Tennessee to take on the lowly Titans.

The home team is actually still playing with some fight, while all the fight may have left the building in KC when their superstar QB went down for the count. So, while many will take the Chiefs on institutional memory alone, we’ll call for the upset here.

Pick: Titans 17-16

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3)

This could be an AFC Divisional or even championship preview, depending on how the conference seeding shakes out. And the conference seeding will depend a lot on this game. The Broncos are looking to hold on to the No. 1 seed and keep their bye, while the Jaguars are trying to fend off the Texans for the AFC South crown.

These are arguably the two hottest teams in the league right now, and both have answered some tough questions in recent days. The NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column isn’t totally sold on Bo Nix or Trevor Lawrence just yet, but Lawrence has been in the crucible more than his sophomore season counterpart. Let’s take a flyer on the Jags here.

Pick: Jaguars 28-27

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Both these teams stink, and this game means absolutely nothing. You should not bet on this game. That said, we here at the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column cater to the whole spectrum of sports gamblers, so we’ll make a pick.

The Falcons are the more talented team, so let’s go with that.

Pick: Falcons 17-10

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (-7)

The Lions seem like they just don’t have enough juice this year to get over the hump after losing both coordinators last offseason. Plus, the injuries are mounting on a defense that was already struggling in several key areas.

On the flip side, the Steelers seem to be finding just enough to keep their NFC North crown intact and hold off the Ravens. Because this is the case, we’ll take the Steelers here. They may not get the win on the road, but they should at least keep it closer than a touchdown.

Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans (-14.5)

This seems like the easiest game on the board on paper. The Texans are good and fighting for playoff positioning, while the Raiders are bad, and any loss only improves their chances for a franchise player in the draft. In Houston, will this game go any other way than a Texans route?

The answer is no. Here at the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column, we have a firm don’t overthink it rule when it comes to games like this, so we’ll take the Texans by a whole lot.

Pick: Texans 35-10

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

The NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column is going to go against the grain on this one. The Patriots’ schedule has been soft, and that was exposed a little bit against the Bills last week. The Ravens look like they are finally coming back to form a bit, too, which means the Pats will have another tough game.

This may be the hopes of a Bills fan talking here, but the Ravens are still a scarier team than the Pats until they prove otherwise, which means we’ll take the home team here to get the W.

Pick: Ravens 28-24

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

We know what the Colts’ plan will be with Philip Rivers at the helm. They will slow the game down and try to choke the life out of the clock. If this can keep the score close, they have a chance. However, the 49ers know this, too, and Robert Saleh will have a plan to combat this.

This is a game that could get out of hand fast if the 49ers play it right, and the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column predicts they will do exactly that.

Pick: 49ers 35-13

Establish the Pass Podcast Week 16 Predictions