We're finally here at the UFC 289 Co-Main Event from Vancouver as fans will see the fight everyone is waiting for. Two top contenders in the Lightweight (155 lb) Division will square off for a shot at Islam Makhachev‘s belt. No. 1 ranked Charles Oliveira of Brazil will take on the surging veteran in No. 4 Beneil Dariush. These two finally get a crack at each other after a cancellation in early May. Check out our UFC odds series for our Oliveira-Dariush prediction and pick.
Charles Oliveira is 33-9 in his mixed martial arts career and has gone a sensational 21-9-1 in the UFC while gaining and defending Champion status. Oliveira was on a unique title run that saw him finish top contenders Gaethje, Poirier, Chandler, and Ferguson all in consecutive fashion. He lost his belt to Islam Makhachev via submission and will be looking to get his rematch. Oliveira is hungrier than ever to get his hands back on gold and stopping Dariush's win streak is the first step. “do Bronx” stands 5'10” with a 74-inch reach.
Beneil Dariush is 22-4-1 as a mixed martial artist and has a UFC record of 16-4-1. He's currently on one of the longest active win streaks in the sport as he's sat down eight consecutive opponents. Dariush has quietly risen the ranks as one of the top lightweights in the world and after several cancellations in his fights, he finally gets a chance to face Charles Oliveira. Dariush has made it clear that he'll “riot” if he doesn't get a title shot following a win, so look for him to leave every bit of himself inside the octagon. Dariush stands 5'10” with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 289 Odds: Charles Oliveira-Beneil Dariush Odds
Charles Oliveira: +120
Beneil Dariush: -154
Over (2.5) rounds: +164
Under (2.5) rounds: -215
How to Watch Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush
TV: ESPN+ UFC PPV
Stream: ESPN app, UFC Fight Pass
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
Why Charles Oliveira Will Win
Charles Oliveira looked to be invincible during his title run. He's currently got the sixth-most wins in UFC history and is the all-time leading submission artist. Over his last few fights, Oliveira has proved that his jiu-jitsu is other-worldly and when coupled with his powerful striking, makes him one of the best in the world. Oliveira was brought down to Earth against Islam Makhachev, showing that maybe he was burnt out from the title run and met his match. His motivation is as high as ever and we should see an ultra-aggressive version of him in this fight. If Oliveira can be careful and back Dariush up with his striking, he could have some openings to attack for a big finish. He'll have to be careful, however, as Dariush is the much more seasoned boxer. Oliveira will have to mix in his leg kicks and play a methodical game on the feet.
In his previous wins, Oliveira's jiu-jitsu was the difference as he left opponents like Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier helpless on the ground. Against Dariush, however, Oliveira may not see such an advantage after all. While Oliveira has the much more aggressive ground game, Dariush is the more defensive of the two and is a multi-world champion in his own right. Oliveira will have to use his jiu jitsu only in an opportunistic fashion. He shouldn't force the grappling actions, but instead welcome them when Dariush is compromised. From there, Oliveira can land with a wild flurry and put Dariush out. We've seen Charles fight through adversity in a number of fights and this one may be no different.
Why Beneil Dariush Will Win
Beneil Dariush is having the best run of his career and has done so in the most humble fashion. He doesn't call out too many opponents and he certainly doesn't talk trash, but his eight-fight win streak more than speaks for itself. He was extremely impressive in his win against Mateusz Gamrot, negating any wrestling and performing lights-out in the striking. Now may be the best time for Dariush to contend for a belt, so he'll have all the confidence knowing what awaits him on the other side if he can put Oliveira away convincingly. He's the betting favorite on the lines, mostly due to his striking advantage and ability to cancel-out Oliveira's game on the ground. If Dariush can stay calm during Oliveira's big actions, he could come away as the fresher fighter by Round 3. Look for Dariush to implement his leg kicks early and compromise the mobility of Oliveira.
Dariush will have to be sharp on the ground in this one if he wants to one-up the greatest submission artist in the sport's history. Still, he possesses an 80% takedown defense and has a ton of skills in the wrestling department. If Dariush lets the fight come to him, he should be able to stuff Oliveira's shots and contend on the ground. From there, he can keep the fight standing and do his best damage in the boxing. If Dariush can hurt Oliveira with a sneaky shot, he'll be quick to pour on the pressure and try to get him out. Dariush whole-heartedly believes he'll be able to out-class Oliveira on the ground.
Final Charles Oliveira-Beneil Dariush Prediction & Pick
On paper, this fight has “Fight of the Year” written all over it. Charles Oliveira has a burning passion to get his title back, while Beneil Dariush believes this is his time to do the same. Oliveira won't be able to win this fight is he goes into it with reckless abandon. Dariush is too smart of a striker to let Oliveira get wild shots off, so look for Charles to be much more careful in managing the distance. This fight may be decided in the clinch as both guys will work to defend/land a takedown. In the clinch, Oliveira may have an advantage with his dirty boxing, but beware of the elbows coming back from Dariush.
This fight may be too close to call, but there's reason to believe both guys will cancel each other out on the ground. From there, it's a matter of who can land the big shots first. If Oliveira's chin can hold up like it has in previous fights, he should be able to finish Beneil Dariush. For the prediction, let's take this fight to end in a knockout stoppage. For value, it never hurts to take the No. 1 contender as an underdog.
Final Charles Oliveira-Beneil Dariush Prediction & Pick: Charles Oliveira (+120); Fight Ends in KO/TKO (+140)
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