NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 16: ‘Tis the season for Saturday NFL

Another NFL slate, another solid divisional matchup in Week 16 as the football festivities kick off with the Denver Broncos coming down the mountain to play the Los Angles Chargers in La La Land. This starts a run of pro football that goes for eight of the next 10 days. Happy Holidays! And without further ado, let’s jump right into the ClutchPoints NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column.

With three games to play in the regular season, there are seven playoff spots mathematically up for grabs. In reality, though, the AFC is almost fully set, with the exception of the final Wild Card Spot, and the NFC West, the NFC South, and the final NFC Wild Card spots are the only other playoff positions truly up for grabs.

That doesn’t mean that there isn’t still a ton to play for in the case of almost every team. There is the crucial case of playoff seeding still up in the air and the matter of draft positioning on the other end as well.

We’ve officially entered the chase for the title and tanking season.

There are some massive spreads this week but be careful out there. For every Baltimore Ravens-esque double-digit favorite that skunks a New York Giants-level opponent, there is a frisky Dallas Cowboys-type team that fights back against the indignity of being underdogs to the Carolina Panthers.

The NFL schedule starts getting funky in Week 15, with games coming fast and furious all weekend long. On this coming slate, we’ll see a Thursday game, a 1:01 p.m. ET Saturday kick and another right after it at 4:31 p.m. ET, seven early-window Sunday fixtures, four late-window ones, a Sunday nighter, and one Monday night affair.

Don’t forget, Week 16 kicks off just two days after Week 15 ends with two matchups on Christmas Day.

After an average Week 14, we absolutely crushed it again in Week 15, going 12-4 straight up and 11-5 against the spread. We now head into the last three weeks of the regular season at 136-88 picking winners and 114-108-2 playing against the Vegas number.

With that, let’s get right into the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds.

Previous Weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

These are both likely playoff-bound teams, so this game will go a long way to determining seeding at the bottom of the AFC playoff picture. Last week, the Chargers got boat-raced by the Buccaneers, while the Broncos dished out the same to the Colts.

This game should be a close affair, and while the Chargers may have the short-week advantage at home, the Broncos have the momentum and the defense that should frustrate and hit Justin Herbert. And since it’s a division game that the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column believes is a toss-up, we’ll take the points.

Pick: Broncos 20-19

UPDATE: Despite jumping out to an early 21-10 lead, the Broncos choked in the second half and lost 34-27 for the Chargers cover. 

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

OK, now this is the week that everything finally catches up to the Chiefs and they finally lose, right? Here at the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column, we’ve picked the Chiefs to lose or win but not cover a lot this season. The latter has worked out quite well, while the former has not paid off at all.

This week, though, we are doing it again. Patrick Mahomes is banged up, the offensive line is in tatters, and while they may be getting Hollywood Brown back this week, the weapons just still aren’t there. We don’t have a lot of confidence in the Texans right now, but even they should have enough to take down the Chiefs who have a Christmas Day game just a few days later.

Pick: Texans 20-17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

This AFC North battle should be one of the best games of the weekend between two surefire playoff teams. Last time the two teams met, the Steelers won at 18-16 in a slugfest in the Steel City. That may be tough to do again, though, with T.J.  Watt possibly out and George Pickens maybe not 100 percent.

The Ravens are certainly playing better now, but destroying the Giants isn’t exactly a major accomplishment. Despite the Ravens soaring and the Steelers coming back down to earth, this should still be a classic NFC Norris showdown. Ravens will win, but not cover.

Pick: Ravens 18-16

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Outside of San Francisco, the Bengals arguably had the most disappointing campaign in 2024. Their offense was still playoff-level but the defense was among the worst units in the league. The good news for Bengals fans in Week 16 is that the offense should still be pretty high-octane even against a good Browns defense, while the Cincy D finally found a unit more their speed.

The Browns have lost Nick Chubb (again) for the season and Jameis Winston was benched for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. They have nothing left to give here, so look for the Bengals to blow the Browns out, even in a divisional game.

Pick: Bengals 35-16

Arizona Cardinals (-5) at Carolina Panthers

This is the battle of the bad teams that the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column believed in too much this season. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals proved that they cannot handle the second half of the season (still), while Bryce Young and the Panthers proved that, while the future now looks at least a little brighter, they are still Bryce Young and the Panthers.

A Panthers upset isn’t the craziest pick here, but with Young yet to prove he can truly close the deal against even decent teams, it’s hard to pick them to win straight up. However, believing that they’ll keep it close as Murray shoots himself in the foot sounds exactly like what we can expect.

Pick: Cardinals 25-23

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Commanders

It would take a historic collapse for the Commanders to catch the Eagles and take the NFC East, but Washington does need this game badly with Seattle just a game behind in the playoff race. Most signs point to the Eagles taking this game, as the more experienced, talented, and hotter team. However, it’s the Commanders who will be the more desperate squad, and at home, this team can prove it is no longer the same old Washington football franchise.

Pick: Commanders 28-27

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5)

This is a lot of points for a rookie quarterback in his first start to be spotting the opposing team. That said, the opponents are the lowly Giants, who are gunning for the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and the first-year signal-caller is Michael Penix Jr., an older rookie who reportedly has looked good in practice.

The Falcons are loaded with offensive talent, but Kirk Cousins was unable to unlock it this season, going weeks on end without throwing a touchdown to the likes of Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts. All Penix has to do is get the ball into the hands of his playmakers and they’ll take care of the rest… and the G Men.

Pick: Falcons 24-12

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

While turnover machine Will Levis is taking a seat on the bench, and the team has looked better at times with Mason Rudolph this season, the Titans are done right now. The Colts are probably done as well, but if they have any shot of catching the Chargers, this is a must-win game.

All six of the Colts wins this season have come by six points or less, so even when they do look good, they don’t blow anyone out. In the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column, we’ll still take Indy to make one final stand at home, but they’ll do it by the skin of their teeth as usual.

Pick: Colts 14-13

Detroit Lions (-6.5) at Chicago Bears

The Lions defense is hurting and that may be what dooms the team’s Super Bowl chances. Even without David Montgomery, though, this offense can still put up 30-plus points on any given NFL Sunday, and in Week 16, that should be enough to beat the Bears.

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Caleb Williams looks like a QB who is ready for the offseason to start after an incredibly tough year, and even a banged-up Lions D won’t change that. There are problems down the road that Detroit will have to face, but Chicago simply isn’t one of those.

Pick: Lions 35-24

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at New York Jets

The Jets offense finally looked pretty good in Week 15, with Aaron Rodgers pumping the ball to his former (now current) favorite target, Davante Adams. It's too little, too late, though for the Jets. The Rams, on the other hand, are fighting for their division and need these games more than the Jets. Overall, LA is just the better, more consistent team this season, so they'll win by a little more than a field goal.

Pick: Rams 28-23

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

There are a lot of reasons the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column like the Vikings here, but the biggest one is injuries. Minnesota is largely healthy while Seattle is falling apart. Obviously, the biggest issue here is Geno Smith’s health. It looks like he is trending toward playing, but one big hit from the blitz-happy Vikings defense and it’s Sam Howell City for the Seahawks.

With a real possibility of Howell getting the ball on Sunday, picking the Vikings to win, cover, and do it convincingly seems like the best play.

Pick: Vikings 31-13

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-14)

Division games are often a lot tougher and closer than meets the eye, but Josh Allen and the Bills are a wagon right now. Allen’s personal goal is all about the Super Bowl, but this team loves their QB and surely wants to help get him the NFL MVP Award this season.

Drake Maye vs. Josh Allen may be the matchup that defines the AFC East for the next decade, but in late 2024, the gap between the two talented signal-callers is massive. After two hard-fought, emotionally draining games, there’s a chance the Bills have a letdown, but ultimately the talent gap is just too big.

Pick: Bills 42-14

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-1)

This is a tough one (as the tiny spread suggests). Usually, in Miami weather against a 6-8 team, you’d take the home team, no problem. However, while the 49ers are having the year from hell after losing the Super Bowl, they aren’t your usual “bad team.”

In the midst of their own nightmare 6-8 campaign, it seems like the Dolphins' struggles are more than just the normal can’t win in the cold or against good teams issues. There seems to be a fundamental flaw in Mike McDaniel’s system, and playing his mentor, Kyle Shanahan, probably isn’t the game he figures it out.

Pick: 49ers 21-20

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (-1)

Who wins this game? Who cares. Actually, this could go a long way toward determining the top overall pick in the draft, so the Raiders would be better off losing than winning. Players don’t care about that, though, so the Silver and Black will surely be giving it their all.
Problem is, their all isn’t very good. Not that the Mac Jones-led Jaguars are much better, but at least they have one explosive offensive player in Brian Thomas Jr. That alone is the reason the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column will take the Jags.

Pick: Jaguars 17-13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys

In a year of great quarterback play from Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, and even Joe Burrow, it’s easy to overlook the season that Baker Mayfield is having. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick is fourth in passing yards and completions, and third in completion percentage and passing touchdowns. If not for the superhuman performances of Allen, Jackson, and Goff, Mayfield would be getting real MVP buzz.

The Cowboys have fought valiantly with Cooper Rush, and they do have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. In this matchup against the likely-playoff-bound Bucs, though, they run into a seriously good and underrated team that is playing its best football right now.

Pick: Buccaneers 28-21

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-14)

The Packers are another team coming on at the right time, as they showed dismantling the Seahawks 30-13 in Week 15. Jordan Love and company should continue to build momentum, even if the NFC North is likely out of reach with the Lions and Vikings both at 12-2.

With Alvin Kamara likely out with an injury (since the team has nothing to play for), the Saints are now without their best player, along with being without a real head coach or quarterback. New Orleans is understandably packing it in for the season, which is why the Packers will roll on Monday night.

Pick: Packers 27-7

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