NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 15: Playoff race heats up

To start Week 15 of the NFL season, we get yet another terrific divisional matchup — as the league has given us nearly all season — with major NFC West and NFC Wild Card implications as the Los Angeles Rams travel north up the 5 Freeway (or Highway 1 if you want to take the scenic route) to play the San Francisco 49ers. So, without further ado, here are the ClutchPoints NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column.

There are four games left in the 2024 NFL regular season, and there are now major implications in nearly every game. The teams at the top of the conference are battling for playoff seeding, with the AFC separated by two games and the NFC teams only one game apart.

The bottom of the AFC playoff bracket is nearly set, with the Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers all holding a two-game lead over the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins. In the NFC, it’s the Washington Commanders just a game up on the Rams for the No. 8 seed and everyone else two games or more back.

Right now, the math still works for about 2/3 of the league, but that will certainly change after the NFL Week 15 group of games hits zeroes.

The 2024 NFL bye weeks are over, so we have the full slate of 16 games every week from here on out. In Week 15, we welcome back the Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Commanders, and New England Patriots, all coming off their late byes as we get ready for the final playoff push.

This weekend, we get our normal Thursday matchup, seven 1 p.m. ET games, five games in the late Sunday window (all with 4:25 p.m. ET kicks), the Sunday nigher, and we’re back to two Monday night affairs.

Last week, we battled, splitting straight-up and against the spread on Thursday, getting hot in the early window, cooling down in the late one, and finishing strong with the Cincinnati Bengals’ near-walk-off TD. Ultimately, we finished 7-6 straight up and 6-6-1 ATS, which brings us to 124-84 picking winners and 103-103-2 playing against the Vegas number.

With that, let’s get right into the NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds.

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Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

The 49ers spat in the face of the NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column’s new coach bump theory last week as they dispatched the Bears with relative ease. Still, they may have lost yet another talented running back in Isaac Guerendo and could be down to fourth-stringer Patrick Taylor, who the team cut just a few weeks ago.

This seems like a trap line, as the Rams should get more credit after beating the Bills in a thriller last week, but the defense should play better against Brock Purdy and company than it did against NFL MVP Josh Allen and his stellar offensive line. Vegas is begging us to take the Rams here, and we’ll do it!

Pick: Rams 31-30

UPDATE: Well, it certainly wasn't pretty by any means, but the Rams did come away with the victory as predicted, 12-6. 

Washington Commanders (-7.5) at New Orleans Saints

The Commanders are the better team here, but between Jayden Daniels hitting the rookie wall and Kliff Kingsbury doing his patented second-half swan dive, Washington has not looked as good of late as it did early in the season.

While the Commanders should have enough talent to win this game, especially now that Derek Carr is out for the Saints, it seems as though winning by more than a touchdown is a lot to expect on the road. The NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column expect the road team to look good here, but between the team’s recent flaws and the hook being ripe for a backdoor cover, we’ll take the Saints to at least cover.

Pick: Commanders 19-17

Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at Tennessee Titans

The Titans put up just six points last week vs. the Jaguars, and against the high-powered Bengals offense, that’s nowhere near enough. Will Levis and company have scored over 30 twice this season, but at this point, they don’t seem to have the want nor the will to do so.

Tennessee is playing out the string, while Joe Burrow and his team are still functioning at a high level despite being out of the playoffs. That should make for a lopsided win and a lot of Bengals fans shaking their heads, wondering what might (or even should) have been in 2024.

Pick: Bengals 28-10

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-2.5)

In the NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column, we have a relatively simple logic tree we use for picking Dolphins games. Does the team the Dolphins are playing against have a winning record? Will it be cold outside? If either or both are true, pick Miami to lose. If neither is true, pick them to win.

This week, traveling to Houston after the Texans bye, the weather will not be a factor as NRG Stadium features a retractable roof, but the home team is 8-5 on the season, making them a winning team. That means the Dolphins will lose, and probably by more than a field goal in the end.

Pick: Texans 24-20

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Cleveland Browns

With their single-doink win over the Chargers last Sunday night, the Chiefs continue to be the luckiest team in football. Despite trying to give every game away, they continually pull Ws out of their Tomahawk Chops. The luck has to end at some point, right?

The Chiefs haven’t won in regulation by more than three points since October 27 and haven’t won by more than one score since the week before that. The smartest play here is for KC to win but now cover, which is just how they roll this season, but for this one, we just have a gut feeling that the Browns can pull something out and keep the AFC race interesting down the stretch.

Pick: Browns 17-16

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-3)

Call us crazy here at the NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column, but we are now true believers in Dave Canales, Bryce Young, and the Panthers. Yes, they’ve lost three in a row, but they’ve covered in all three matchups against playoff teams: the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles. Before that, they beat the terrible Saints and Giants. So, are the Cowboys closer to the first three teams mentioned or the second pair? I think we all know the answer to that.

Yes, a win in Week 15 to move to 4-10 on the season will push the Panthers out of a top-five draft pick and toward the end of the top 10, but for a team that seems to have some hope (again) for Young to be the long-term QB1, that’s OK, especially in the relatively weak 2025 NFL Draft. Let’s take Carolina to win by more than a field goal.

Pick: Panthers 21-16

New York Jets (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jets' offense actually looked good last week, but the team still found a way to Jets things up and lose the Dolphins. Now that it's draft pick seeding time, the Jets-best thing to do here would be to win and push themselves further down the draft board.

With Mac Jones facing a still-tough New York pass defense, Jacksonville is in for a bigger test than when they faced Tennessee last week. This is a pretty insignificant game overall, which makes it a perfect time for Aaron Rodgers to show up and show out. Jets win.

Pick: Jets 24-12

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-16)

As good as the Ravens are this season, they often play to the level of the competition. The only two teams they’ve blown out this season are the Bills and the Broncos, which are a great and pretty decent team. The Giants still have some pride, it seems, despite the 2-11 record, so it seems as though while they will still lose, it won’t be by more than two touchdowns.

Pick: Ravens 28-18

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-4)

Bo Nix is a smart and capable game manager without incredible gifts who seems to make plays when his team needs them. On the other side of the field, Anthony Richardson is a generational athlete with a knack for wild inconsistency.

With the Broncos coming off a bye and the Colts just scraping bye against bad teams and losing to good ones, this seems like a good spot for the Broncos. Plus, if Richardson is too tired to play at times in normal conditions, he’s not going to like that thin Mile High City air. The Broncos will roll here.

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Pick: Broncos 16-9

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6)

The NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column believed in Kyler Murray and the Cardinals a lot early in the season and held onto that belief well after its expiration date. Murray seems to be in the middle of his annual late-season collapse, and despite the overall success of the power run game this year, the QB calamity just can’t be overcome.

Drake Maye and the Patriots, though, are gaining steam as the season goes along and the rookie QB gets more comfortable with the NFL game. Unlike some other rookies who are hitting a wall right now, Maye started later in the season, so getting his ninth start is still akin to what he did in college. Because of that, we like the Pats in an upset here.

Pick: Patriots 21-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers just seem to get the job done every week, no matter who the opponent is. While the Chargers are probably the better team overall, the Justin Herbert ankle injury is a scary situation for a team that needs its QB to be the straw that stirs the drink.

Yes, it's a long plane trip for the Bucs, but the fact that their QB is healthy — and the one on the other sideline is not — is what ultimately has the NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column taking Tampa Bay here.

Pick: Buccaneers 20-16

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)

The Steelers haven’t won in the City of Brotherly Love since 1965. There have been a lot of Steelers players and coaches in that time, yet none of them could crack the code on beating their cross-state rival in Philly.

Mike Tomlin is usually a coach who can at least cover spreads on the road if not win outright, but without George Pickens this week, it will be harder. On the Eagles’ side, the Jalen Hurts vs. A.J. Brown drama is real, which may not be good long term, but this week will inspire the offense to pump the ball to its best wide receiver. That is the recipe for a lot of points with what Saquon Barkley is doing as well.

Pick: Eagles 31-20

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

This could easily be a Super Bowl preview and, in the opinion of the NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column, the best Super Bowl matchup between two teams looking to win their first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history.

What we should see in Detroit is another barnburner because the Bills can’t stop the run, and the Lions' defense is likely too banged up to stop Josh Allen and company. This should be another shootout, and this time, the Bills win by the same score they lost by in Week 14.

Pick: Bills 44-42

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday night is a fascinating NFC matchup that sees the Seahawks, on a four-game win streak, as home dogs against a Packers team that had three-straight wins before narrowly losing to the Lions by a field goal.

This should be a good game and a close game, and anyone sleeping on the Seahawks here is in for a surprise. They are coming together on both sides of the ball at the right time, and with a game that seems like a coin-flip situation at best, we’ll take the team getting points at home.

Pick: Seahawks 24-23

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)

The Bears are losers of seven straight games and didn’t get that new coach bump that many — including the NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column expected last week. Sama Darnold and the Vikings, on the other hand, looked great last weekend, proving that Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are among the best (if not the best) WR duo in the NFL right now.

Division games are often closer than the spread suggests, and the last time these two faced off, the Bears took the Vikings to overtime before succumbing in a three-point loss. However, these two teams are in wildly different spaces now, just three weeks later, and the Vikings should take care of business on Monday.

Pick: Vikings 27-17

Atlanta Falcons (-4) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Falcons are among the most disappointing teams in the league this year and are in the midst of a four-game losing streak. What they should be doing is getting first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. some reps. What they are doing is sticking with a cooked (or at least still hobbled from his Achille’s injury) Kirk Cousins.

The good news for Falcons fans is that the most disappointing team is facing arguably the worst team in the league on Monday night in a game that makes you thank Roger Goodell for a second primetime game in basically the same slot. Las Vegas players should be booking their trips to Cancun already, so let’s give the Falcons an easy W here.

Pick: Falcons 23-6

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