NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 6: Cowboys edge Chargers

The NFL Week 6 schedule kicked off with a tough matchup to watch on Thursday night, with the Kansas City Chiefs earning an ugly win over the hapless Denver Broncos. As the weekend goes along, the slate does get more interesting, though, culminating in what should be a fun (if not frustrating for fans of the two teams) Monday night matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers. Now, let’s get to the rest of our NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds.

Week 5 started with two big upsets, as the winless Chicago Bears took out the Washington Commanders and the Jacksonville Jaguars shocked the Buffalo Bills. After that, the weekend got a little more predictable as most of the best teams in the league right now — the Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, and San Francisco 49ers — took care of their business.

The worst part of last week’s slate was the injuries. Stars like Justin Jefferson, Anthony Richardson, Matt Milano, and breakout rookie sensation De’Von Achane will all miss significant time.

This is the unfortunate part of the NFL that is unlikely to ever change, so to paraphrase Bill Belichick, it’s on to Week 6. And this week, we welcome back the Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and say, see you in Week 7 to the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here in the ClutchPoints NFL picks, predictions, and odds series, we cooled off a tiny bit from the hot start to the 2023 NFL season (at least picking winners straight-up), but still came up on top of Mount .500. Last week, the picks here were just 8-6 straight-up, but still an excellent 10-4 against the spread. That takes us to 53-25 (67.9%) getting the winners right and 50-25-3 (64.1%) against the spread.

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2| Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5

So, let’s get right to the NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)

There are two “offensive geniuses” in this game on either sideline. Andy Reid is a real offensive genius with Patrick Mahomes, while Sean Payton gets the quotation marks and may not be a real “offensive genius” without Drew Brees under center. The Broncos are a bad team right now, and while the Chiefs often do just enough to win — especially with Travis Kelce possibly limited — they’ll still have enough to win and cover this big spread.

Pick: Chiefs 38-20

Update: The Chiefs' usually high-powered offense sputtered against the bad Broncos defense, but Russell Wilson was terrible in a 19-8 Kansas City win (and cover).

Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Tennessee Titans in London

The fact that this game is in London makes it one of the hardest games to pick in this NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds piece. As we saw last week, the travel across the Atlantic does weird things to teams. That said, I’m still a believer in the Ravens offense and someday soon, Lamar Jackson and company will have their breakout game. This game could finally be the game if the Titans aren’t playing their best. I’ll take the Ravens to win and cover here, but the confidence isn’t all that high.

Pick: Ravens 24-17

San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns

Teams coming off their bye are another group to watch out for. The Browns had two weeks to game plan for the 49ers, so they should have a solid idea of what they want to do to stop them, but Deshaun Watson is out again. San Francisco is also an absolute buzzsaw, and with so many (currently) healthy weapons, there is no real way to stop them. That’s why Brock Purdy and the fellas should win another one in a walk to stay undefeated in the 2023 NFL season.

Pick: 49ers 34-21

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

The Falcons are a scary team to bet on because if the game script doesn’t go to plan, Desmond Ridder isn’t a quarterback who can drop back and sling it 35 times to come back. The Commanders are a sinking ship, though, and this game could be the last for defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio unless the defense steps up in a big way. On the road, I just don’t see that happening, even with the extra days of rest after playing Thursday.

Pick: Falcons 16-13

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)

Losing De’Von Achane is a huge blow to the Dolphins. The rookie running back has been the surprise star of the 2023 NFL season, and in Week 6, Miami won’t have that dynamic aspect to their offense. Still, the Panthers are winless for a reason, and playing down in the South Florida heat won’t do them any favors. Two touchdowns is a lot of points, but that is just how much better the Dolphins are than the Panthers right now.

Pick: Dolphins 31-10

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Chicago Bears

After the Bears got their first win of the season last Thursday, it stands to reason that a letdown game could easily follow. Maybe Justin Fields found something, though, and since his opposite Jefferson (Justin Jefferson) won’t be on the field, it is hard to figure out how the Vikings are going to move the ball. Maybe Alexander Mattison and Jordan Addison finally step up without their best teammate available, but it seems more likely Kirk Cousins will crumble under the weight of losing his top target.

Pick: Bears 20-19

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)

The Jaguars got a huge advantage against the Bills last week, as staying in England made them look much fresher than the team coming from the States. This week, the NFL’s grand body clock experiment continues, with Jacksonville going right back to football after two weeks overseas. Look for the Jags to wilt on Sunday like the Bills did last Sunday, and if they do, Gardner Minshew is a solid QB who can take advantage of that.

Pick: Colts 23-21

New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Houston Texans

The Texans couldn’t keep their hot streak going in Week 5 and lost to the Falcons, while the Saints looked like monsters, beating down the Patriots by 34 points. CJ Stroud is still the best rookie QB of the bunch right now, and frankly, he’s already better than Mac Jones. This AFC-NFC South battle should be a fun game and the final score will be close. With that as the prediction in this NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column, I’ll take the dogs at home.

Pick: Texans 17-16

Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

Are Joe Burrow and the Bengals all the way back after beating the Cardinals by two touchdowns in Week 5? That is the big question in this NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column. The last time Burrow played well enough to get a win, I jumped right back on the bandwagon. This time, Who Dey Nation is going to have to prove that it wasn’t just a fluke win over one of the worst teams in the league. Plus, the Seahawks are coming off their bye, and Pete Carroll will have them ready to go with the memories of sacking Daniel Jones 11 times still fresh in their heads.

Pick: Seahawks 28-27

New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)

On Monday night, the Raiders showed that they are a team capable of taking advantage of bad teams when said team shoots itself in the foot over and over again. That’s what Jordan Love and the Packers did in primetime, and that’s what Mac Jones and the Patriots have been doing all season. Jimmy Garoppolo and Maxx Crosby’s bunch probably aren’t good enough to beat Bill Belichick by 30 or more like the Cowboys and Saints did, but they are good enough to cover a field goal (and then some).

Pick: Raiders 17-3

Detroit Lions (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are one of the biggest surprises from the first quarter of the NFL season. The team is much better than expected, and they are coming off a bye, which should have helped them get healthier. However, the Lions are playing better than nearly any team in the NFL right now, and it seems like they are building momentum. With all the offensive weapons and an improved defense, the Lions look like the much more talented team that will win the day on Sunday.

Pick: Lions 28-24

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

The Rams are 10-2-1 against the spread in their last 13 Cardinals matchups. Yes, those games include some bad Arizona squads vs. excellent Rams ones, and it was mostly Kliff Kingsbury, not Jonathan Gannon, who Sean McVay beat up on. Still, the Rams look even better with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup, and as long as they can protect Matthew Stafford, this game should be a walk. The Cardinals might be frisky this season, but without James Conner, they just took a massive hit. That’s why I like the Rams to make it 11-2-1 against the spread.

Pick: Rams 23-13

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Jets

The Eagles are one of the most frustrating teams you’ll see in the NFL Week 6 picks, predictions, and odds column because they are good enough to blow out every team, but they don’t. They are still undefeated, but it doesn’t feel as good as it does with the 49ers. The good news is that they are playing the Jets this weekend, and after a big win against the Broncos, Zach Wilson is flying high. Ultimately, the Jets still aren’t good enough to beat the Eagles, and if you don’t think an underdog can win flat-out, it’s hard to take them. Give me the Birds.

Pick: Eagles 26-14

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-15.5)

The Bills' trip to London last week was a costly one, as two of their best defenders — LB Matt Milano and DT DaQuan Jones — are now on IR and likely out for the season. That came on the heels of losing CB Tre’Davious White for the rest of the campaign the week before. The Bills are hurting and probably tired once again with all the travel. Still, the Giants are an absolute mess with Daniel Jones out, and the offensive line is a complete sieve. Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Ed Oliver, and a getting-healthier Von Miller will show up under the lights Sunday night and get the job done.

Pick: Bills 32-12

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

This is the Kellen Moore Revenge Game, but which team does that favor? This game feels like a pick ‘em, and with Vegas usually giving home teams just 2.5 points these days, that is exactly what this is. The Chargers had a bye week to prepare, but with Brandon Staley, is that a good thing? The Chargers will get Austin Ekeler, Derwin James, and hopefully Joey Bosa back for this game. The Cowboys are historically good after a loss under Mike McCarthy, but Dak Prescott hasn’t shown much of anything this season. This game could really go either way, so I’ll take the cop-out of the Cowboys winning and the Chargers covering.

Pick: Cowboys 31-30

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