NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 5: 49ers down Cowboys

NFL Week 5 is here after a wild Week 4 where we saw two teams get their first wins of the season (Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings) and just two teams stay undefeated (Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers). The slate this week kicked off with the Chicago Bears getting their first win of the season with surprise performance against the Washington Commanders, and now let’s get to the rest of our NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds.

Week 5 of any NFL season is a line of demarcation that means several things to the teams and their fans. First, it is the start of bye weeks, so we go from 16 games in a week down to 14. That means we bid adieu to the Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Seattle Seahawks for now.

Also, this is the week when players who started the season on the PUP list are eligible to return, which means we could see the first 2023 action from stars like Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor, and Von Miller.

Last week, we got the good of the Buffalo Bills dominating the previously red-hot Miami Dolphins, the bad of the Cincinnati Bengals offense managing just a single field goal, and the ugly of New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones getting sacked 11 times in a single game.

Here in the ClutchPoints NFL picks, predictions, and odds series, things remained hot like the weather here in the Northeast. Once again, the picks in this space were well over 60 percent. We went 14-2 straight up and 11-4-1 against the spread. That brings us to 45-19 (70.3%) picking winners and 40-21-3 (62.5%) working with the Vegas line.

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2| Week 3 | Week 4

So, let’s get right to the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds

NFL Week 5 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-6)

Both the Bears and Commanders showed something in losses last weekend. The Bears offense finally looked capable, although they coughed up a 21-point lead to the Broncos. The Commanders went punch-for-punch with the Eagles but lost in overtime. These teams should both have some renewed confidence coming into this game, and this seems like a game where you can split the difference, taking the Commanders to win and the Bears to cover.

Pick: Commanders 20-17

Update: The Bears not only covered the spread but took home a 20-point win over the Commanders thanks to Justin Fields and DJ Moore.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) in London

The narrative here is that the Bills are due for a letdown game after whopping the Dolphins last week, and they are traveling nearly 4,000 miles while the Jaguars got to stay in Jolly Old England for the week. However, anecdotes aside, Josh Allen and the Bills are clicking on all cylinders, while Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are still underwhelming. If this was back in the States, it would be Buffalo by more than a touchdown, so that’s the kind of game I’ll be looking for.

Pick: Bills 31-20

Update: Game in progress

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Full Texans-Falcons betting preview

The Texans are quickly becoming a team that is getting the most — if not more — out of the sum of its parts. On the other hand, the Falcons have so much offensive skill position talent, but they can’t seem to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers enough to win games. CJ Stroud is quickly becoming the odds-on favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he will continue to build his lead in that area in Week 5.

Pick: Texans 23-12

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-9.5)

Full Panthers-Lions betting preview

The Lions may be without rookie defensive back Brian Branch this week due to an ankle injury, but that’s about the only bad thing going on in the Motor City these days. On the positive side, the team finally gets 2022 first-round pick WR Jameson Williams back from his gambling suspension and preseason hamstring injury to give the offense even more firepower. This is going to be a long season in Carolina with rookie Bryce Young starting, and Sunday should be a long day for the team in Michigan without Kirk Cousins gifting the defense touchdowns.

Pick: Lions 28-9

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Full Titans-Colts betting preview

There is not much between AFC South teams this season. Every team is 2-2 and capable of beating or scaring good teams or losing to bad teams. You just never know which type of squad is going to show up for the Colts, Titans, Texans, or Jaguars each week. This is a total toss-up where the team that executes better will win, plain and simple. This line has flipped from Colts -1 to Titans -2.5, which makes me want to be a contrarian here and go against the public with the Colts.

Pick: Colts 21-20

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-12.5)

Full Giants-Dolphins betting preview

The Dolphins got humbled in Week 4 as the Bills beat them handily to remind the upstart ‘Phins who the class of the AFC East is. That hiccup aside, the Dolphins are still an excellent team that can score at will against lesser defenses. The Giants were dreadful on Monday night, as the line couldn’t protect poor Daniel Jones at all. While (presumably) getting Saquon Barkley this week will help, he won’t be 100 percent still, and even the great running back won’t be able to make up for the Swiss cheese offensive line. The highest spreads on the board are hitting around 50/50 these last few weeks, so taking the Dolphins and Lions to cover this week is a risk, but there is just too big a gap between the talent and form of these two teams in recent weeks to think the Giants will hang.

Pick: Dolphins 35-10

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Full Ravens-Steelers betting preview

Mitchell Trubisky could be the starter this week as Kenny Pickett deals with a knee injury, though the Steelers youngster claims he's going to be ready to play. However, this actually might not be a good thing for Pittsburgh. The Ravens seem to be getting better as the season goes along, too, and even against the vaunted Pittsburgh defense, they should put up some series points this weekend, which means in this NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column, I say they’ll win by at least a touchdown and probably more.

Pick: Ravens 26-16

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1.5)

Full Saints-Patriots betting preview

After last week’s poor performance against the Cowboys, it’s easy to be way down on Mac Jones and the Patriots, especially with Matthew Judon and excellent rookie CB Christian Gonzalez out with injuries. However, JC Jackson should be able to come right back into Foxborough and be productive, and while the Saints defense is good, it’s not Cowboys-level good. On the New Orleans side, Derek Carr and company haven’t shown enough to be favored on the road against almost any team, so it's no surprise the line has shifted from the Saints to the Patriots.

Pick: Patriots 19-13

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Full Bengals-Cardinals betting preview

This may be the hardest game on the NFL Week 5 schedule to pick. The Bengals are demonstrably better but have struggled mightily amid Joe Burrow’s injury. The Cardinals should be one of the worst teams in the league from a talent perspective, but QB Josh Dobbs has made them at least frisky. After Burrow’s complete zero last week, it’s easy to think the Cardinals will jump out and surprise the Bengals in Scottsdale, but Burrow says he’s finally starting to feel better, and it’s just hard to imagine he gets any worse.

Pick: Bengals 24-20

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Full Eagles-Rams betting preview

The Eagles haven’t hit on all gears yet, and they’re still undefeated, which is pretty impressive when you think about it. The Rams are impressive, too, getting a lot out of minimal talent. Plus Cooper Kupp could be back this week as well. This seems like it should be a close game, but SoFit Stadium should be filled with “E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!” chants, and Matthew Stafford seems one big hit away from being far less effective. Look for the Eagles D to win this game while Jalen Hurts and company also have a good day.

Pick: Eagles 28-10

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Full Chiefs-Vikings betting preview

Don’t worry, I’m all out of Taylor Swift song titles in this week’s NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column. It’s back to football as usual for both me and the Chiefs after a few Swiftie-filled weeks. The Chiefs do look like they are on cruise control at times in the regular season, but the Jets defense and Zach Wilson should get their fair credit for covering last week. The Vikings finally won (and covered) against the Panthers last Sunday, but Kirk Cousins still threw too many picks while doing so. Mahomes and company can make the Vikings pay for those mistakes in ways that the Panthers couldn’t (even though they did have a sweet pick-6). That’s why the Chiefs come Out of the Woods by Fifteen. (Sorry, couldn’t help it!)

Pick: Chiefs 35-20

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Full Jets-Broncos betting preview

The Jets finally got a Zach Wilson performance last week that didn’t make them want to curl up in the fetal position and cry. While it took a long time to finally get some good football out of the young quarterback, doing it again will be even harder. That said, the Broncos have the worst defense in the league right now, and if the Jets play it smart and work from the run game out, they should be able to move the ball again. Also, the Jets defense should have a lot of confidence after frustrating Patrick Mahomes last week, and Rusell Wilson is no Patrick Mahomes. Plus, New York shouldn’t have to deal with refs trying to angle for free Taylor Swift tickets this week.

Pick: Jets 17-16

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

Full Cowboys-49ers betting preview

The game of the week is a throwback to the late '80s and early '90s when the Cowboys vs. 49ers games decided home-field advantage in the NFC Playoffs. While the Eagles will factor into that race, too, this year, it’s great to have this classic matchup mean something again. These are two good teams playing at a high level right now, but the weak link is the Cowboys offense. Until Dak Prescott and company prove they can get it done in a big spot, the 49ers are the team to beat, so San Francisco is the Cowboys-49ers pick here.

Pick: 49ers 27-21

Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

Full Packers-Raiders betting preview

Last but not least, the Packers and Raiders close down the NFL’s Week 5 on Monday Night Football. Neither one of these teams has looked good consistently this season, but the Packers have had far more moments of promise than the Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo should be back for the silver and black, but that may not make much of a difference. Jordan Love needs to be more accurate, and having Christian Watson back helps with that. Plus, Watson and Aaron Jones shouldn’t be on as strict as a pitch count this week, which will allow the offense to get nearer to its potential. As long as the Packers defense doesn’t wildly underperform, the away team should win this game that opened as a pick ‘em and has seen the line move from Green Bay to Vegas.

Pick: Packers 24-16

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