NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 4: Bills outlast Dolphins in thriller

The NFL’s Week 3 slate is a thing of the past, and now we're in Week 4, starting with the rare exciting Thursday Night Football matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. The Lions took care of business at Lambeau Field, punching the Packers in the mouth to earn a victory. Now, let’s get to the rest of our NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds.

The 2023 NFL season is starting to take shape, and we’re begining to see who some of these teams really are. On the positive side, the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Philadelphia Eagles are as good as we thought they would be in the preseason after shaky starts. On the flip side, it looks like it could be a tough year for 2022 playoff teams like the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Week 3 also brought us some stunning outcomes. The Houston Texans got their first win of the season over the Jaguars, the Gardner Minshew-led Indianapolis Colts shocked Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, and if anyone had the Miami Dolphins over the Denver Broncos by 50 (!), I’d like to see the proof.

On a happy note here, this NFL picks, predictions, and odds series keeps on rolling into Week 4 with an 11-5 record straight-up last week and a fantastic 13-3 record against the spread. That brings us to 31-17 straight-up this season and 29-17-2 against the spread, which means we’re hitting at a rate of 63% against Vegas, baby!

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2| Week 3

So, let’s get right to the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds

NFL Week 4 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Green Bay Packers

This NFC North battle should make for a fun Thursday night game, which we don’t get all that often. The Packers should have Christian Watson coming back, but how much will that help Jordan Love improve on his putrid 53.1% completion rate? The Lions are 10-0 against the spread in their last 10 division games, so I’ll take them to cover here.

Pick: Detroit 24-21

UPDATE: The Lions dominated the first half and held off the Packers in the second half to earn a commanding 34-17 win. 

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) in London

The Jaguars are London’s home team, playing across the pond every season for the last decades (except for 2020, when no games went outside the borders). They usually do well there, too, but the Falcons actually won their London game in 2021, which is the last time the Jags took home a victory there as well. Look for this to be a low-scoring game that Jacksonville takes home late.

Pick: Jaguars 14-10

UPDATE: Game in progress

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3)

Full Dolphins-Bills betting preview

The game of the week in this NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column is the AFC East showdown between the Bills and Dolphins. The three games between these two teams were incredibly competitive last season, and they once again look like two of the best teams in the league, with the Dolphins seeming unstoppable right now. However, there is a lot of public action on the Dolphins, so this line should drop even further. Wait as long as you can to take the Bills if you like them like I do.

Pick: Bills 38-34

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Houston Texans

Full Steelers-Texans betting preview

The Texans have to be feeling good after their first win of the season last week, and the Steelers have to be a little discombobulated after their travel snafu on Sunday into Monday. The Steelers defense is legit, though, and the Texans are 1-17-1 at home in their last 19 home games, which gives the Steelers the edge.

Pick: Steelers 23-16

Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-1)

Full Rams-Colts betting preview

It looks like rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is going to be back from his concussion this week, and while that is great news for him and the long-term future of the franchise, backup Gardner Minshew would probably give the Colts the best chance to win this weekend. The Rams came down to earth a bit last week, but they still looked tough at times against the Bengals. The Rams should be able to take this one.

Pick: Rams 21-20

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers

Full Vikings-Panthers betting preview

There are currently four 0-3 teams in the NFL, and all four face off against each other this Sunday, guaranteeing (barring ties) that only two teams will remain winless when the dust settles on these games. In this Vikings-Panthers matchup, Minnesota just has a huge talent advantage, and that should win the day here whether it is Bryce Young or Andy Dalton at quarterback, especially if it’s Young.

Pick: Vikings 28-10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Full Buccaneers-Saints betting preview (published before final Derek Carr status update)

The Buccaneers didn’t play poorly on Monday night against the Eagles, they just got beat handily by a better team. The Saints have a good defense and Alvin Kamara back now, plus Derek Carr plans to play despite a sprained AC joint in his shoulder. At more or less full strength against Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston, I like the Bucs to pull the upset here.

Pick: Buccaneers 23-21

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

Full Commanders-Eagles betting preview

The Eagles are starting to round into form, looking like the dominant force they did last season, while the Commanders have shown flashes thus far but haven’t quite figured out their winning formula. Divisional games are always tough, but the Eagles are just a lot better than their longtime NFC East rival, and they’ll win this one in a walk.

Pick: Eagles 30-20

Denver Broncos (-3) at Chicago Bears

Full Broncos-Bears betting preview

What a brutal game. The Bears are the biggest mess in the league this season, yet the Broncos got blown out by 50 on Sunday. These teams are so bad that this game might actually be fun to watch and could get interesting if we see backup QBs come into the game at some point. This is a tough game to pick, as both teams are capable of complete no-shows. However, with what we’ve seen so far, there’s a better chance Sean Payton gets it together with Russell Wilson than Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy get on the same page with Justin Fields, so the Broncos it is.

Pick: Broncos 19-9

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns

Full Ravens-Browns betting preview (from before Deshaun Watson's final injury update)

The Ravens don’t like being underdogs. Lamar Jackson and company are 19-3-1 against the spread in their last 23 times as the team getting points. Yes, last week against the Colts was a bad look, but as we’ve seen several times already this season, that will happen to good teams on occasion. And while the Browns defense looked incredible last week, the offense is a mess right now. Deshaun Watson is out, despite assuring fans he'd play this week, leaving rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starter. Meanwhile, David Njoku is in after suffering burns on his face and hands. This line has shifted to the Ravens, and they should pull out a win against a rookie quarterback.

Pick: Ravens 27-24

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans

Full Bengals-Titans betting preview

Before the season, few people had the Bengals defense carrying a struggling Joe Burrow and the offense to their first win of the season in Week 3, but that is exactly what happened. As the season goes along, Burrow will continue to knock off the rust, and his calf will feel better and better. Plus, the team remembered that the formula of just giving it to Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon works wonders. As for the Titans, until they get a new QB and finally move away from Ryan Tannehill, they will be stuck in NFL purgatory as the lower middle class of the league.

Pick: Bengals 20-13

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

Full Raiders-Chargers betting preview (published before Raiders' QB decision)

The Chargers looked better last week, picking up their first win of the year against the Vikings, but they still made too many unforced errors and weird coaching decisions. The good news is they are playing the team that kicked a field goal last week down eight with 2:25 left on the clock and will be starting rookie Aidan O'Connell in place of the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. This Brandon Staley vs. Josh McDaniels matchup may be a battle to get fired first this season, and watch for McDaniels to take the lead in that race on Sunday.

Pick: Chargers 31-23

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

Full Patriots-Cowboys betting preview

Like the Ravens, the Cowboys were shocked in Week 3, losing to the lowly Cardinals. Here in the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column, we’re going to give them the benefit of the doubt, though, and say some of that was overconfidence, some of that was losing Trevon Diggs for the season, and some of that was just dumb luck. While this does have the potential to be the Ezekiel Elliott Revenge Game, it’s more likely the Cowboys get back to form and win the Cousin Sal-Bill Simmons Bowl.

Pick: Cowboys 31-21

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14)

Full Cardinals-49ers betting preview

Speaking of the Cardinals, they are facing another tough opponent this week, looking to pull another massive upset. Two touchdowns are a ton of points in professional football, but the 49ers have looked like the best team in the league from the starting gate this year, scoring exactly 30 points in each of their first three games. With that as the trend, let’s take Brock Purdy and company to put up 30 again and dominate their NFC West rival.

Pick: 49ers 30-15

Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at New York Jets

Full Chiefs-Jets betting preview

Last week, the Chiefs were one of two teams (along with the Cowboys) to go into into their games double-digit favorites. In this space last week, I took both big favorites, and while the Chiefs came through for me and Taylor Swift, the Cowboys did not. This week, the Chiefs are again one of the two biggest spreads on the board, and even though I already picked the 49ers to cover, and both probably won’t, give me KC.

Because Ready for It…? The Chiefs know Zach Wilson All Too Well, and while they Should’ve Said No to Aaron Rodgers’ replacement, the Jets D Knew [Wilson was] Trouble When He Walked In, while Mastermind Andy Reid and company are Fearless and only have Champagne Problems. The Chiefs are going to be Mean in Week 4 to the Jets because they are The 1. (Yup, that just happened.)

Pick: Chiefs 34-13

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at New York Giants

Last but not least in this NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds piece, we get the Seahawks and Giants on Monday Night Football. Saquon Barkley may play in this game despite his high ankle sprain, but even if he does, there is no way he is fully himself this week. The Giants haven’t got it together yet this season and are already banged up, while the Seahawks seemed to have righted the ship after their Week 1 hiccup against the Rams. Seattle is one of the first teams to go in its bye in Week 5, and they’ll do so after a nice win.

Pick: Seahawks 28-17

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