We're still a few months away from the return of college football, but the anticipation is slowly building across the country with spring practices in the books. Expectations are a bit lower for the Houston football team as they're joining the Big 12 conference after some key departures, but there's still some optimism as Dana Holgorsen enters his fifth year as the head coach. Below, we continue our college football odds series with an over/under win total prediction for the Houston Cougars.
Houston entered its final season in the AAC with lofty aspirations of making a New Year's Six bowl, following a 12-win season in 2021. Things got off to a wild start last September, as the Cougars scratched and clawed their way back to overcome a two-touchdown fourth-quarter deficit to beat UTSA 37-35 in triple overtime and remain a ranked team in the AP Top 25.
The Cougars followed it up with another overtime thriller, this time coming up short, 33-30 in double overtime at Texas Tech, as they were marred by a “lot of stupid stuff,” according to coach Dana Holgorsen. It was Texas Tech's first regular season win against a ranked nonconference opponent in 33 years.
Houston's high hopes for the season came down to earth the following week, as Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels accounted for five touchdowns in a dominant 48-30 win at TDECU Stadium. The Cougars got back on track by retaining the Bayou Bucket for the seventh consecutive time in a hard-fought 34-27 win over Rice, before coming up short, 27-24, in yet another wild overtime loss against Tulane and its third-string quarterback.
Dana Holgorsen's resilient team followed it up with another impressive comeback win, as quarterback Clayton Tune threw a pair of touchdown passes in the final two minutes to secure a 33-32 win in primetime against Memphis. That launched the longest winning streak of the year, as the Cougars dominated Navy and South Florida to cap off the month of October.
Houston put itself in the history books the following week, as former SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai set school and AAC conference records with nine touchdown passes in a 77-63 shootout win. Their combined 140 points set the record as the highest-scoring regular season game in college football history.
The Cougars capped off the regular season with a blowout win over East Carolina, another comeback win in the final seconds against Temple, and a gut-wrenching 37-30 loss to Tulsa, before beating the Ragin' Cajuns 23-16 in the Independence Bowl.
Houston will have plenty of new challenges as the program transitions to Big 12 football. Can the Cougars shock the world and contend in the 14-team conference in 2023? Without further ado, let's take a look at Houston's over/under odds.
Here are the latest college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Football Odds: Houston Over/Under Win Total
Over 4.5 Wins: -134
Under 4.5 Wins: +110
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Why Houston Could Hit The Over
Four of the Cougars' opponents are featured in our list of way-too-early college football playoff rankings heading into the summer and 10 of their 12 opponents are higher implied win totals this season. That includes UTSA, who is remarkably tied for the second-highest implied win total, even though Houston's an early 2.5-point favorite for the season opener.
While Houston will have a problem with Texas, Kansas State, and UCF, the Cougars are well-positioned to take advantage of some favorable matchups against TCU, Texas Tech, and Cincinnati, as they try to replace several key stars.
Baylor, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State profile as the pivotal toss-up games—at least on paper—in breaking down Houston's over/under prediction.
Houston also had a solid recruiting class and did very well overall through the transfer portal.
Why Houston Could Hit The Under
The Cougars lost several key players this offseason, as four of them heard their names called during the 2023 NFL Draft. It was the largest draft class the Cougars have produced since 1997.
After leading the nation with 1,398 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns last season, Tank Dell led the way for the Cougars as the No. 69 overall pick of the new-look Houston Texans. He's impressed so far at OTA's and has already shown strong chemistry with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who actually recruited Dell to stay in Houston.
A smooth route runner with exceptional vertical quickness and body control, Dell has an opportunity to quickly climb the Texans' depth chart and make a significant impact out of the gate.
But his presence will be sorely missed in the Cougars' offense. The same applies to Arizona Cardinals' fifth-round pick and quarterback Clayton Tune, who is the great-great nephew of the Cardinals' first-ever draft pick.
Despite his limitations as a pocket passer that can struggle with pressure and inconsistent footwork, Tune is a rhythm passer that works through his progressions well and he had the highest on-target percentage in this year's rookie QB class. Tune has already made some noise at OTA's, and he'll have a shot to challenge Colt McCoy for the starting job atop the Cardinals' depth chart, as Kyler Murray is expected to miss a chunk of the season recovering from a torn ACL.
In the seventh round, the Jacksonville Jaguars took defensive end, Derek Parish, with the No. 240 0verall pick. Parish utilizes his strength and frame to convert speed to power as a pass rusher, but he's expected to make his mark on special teams and on offense as the projected starting fullback on the Jaguars' depth chart.
Within the next hour, safety Gervarrius Owens heard his name called as the No. 254 overall pick of the New York Giants. Owens likely faces a fairly steep initial climb on the Giants' depth chart before he sees regular snaps, but the hard-hitting, versatile safety has the tools to make an impact at the next level.
On top of the departures through the draft, Houston lost some promising talent through the transfer portal, including running back Alton McCaskill and starting offensive linemen Lance Robinson and Cam’Ron Johnson, who was named first-team All-AAC last year. We can also expect the quarterback battle between Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith and sophomore and Arkansas transfer Lucas Coley to continue to heat up heading into the summer.
Final Houston Over/Under Pick & Prediction
As the year progresses, health, depth, and leadership will be key factors for Dana Holgorsen and Houston's over/under odds. The Cougars are currently dead last in the odds to win the Big 12 but they're well-equipped to overcome the obstacles on its schedule and it's a seemingly safe bet to take the over on Houston's over/under prediction.
Final Houston Over/Under Pick & Prediction: Over 4.5 Wins: -134
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