NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 14: Eagles edge Cowboys

The NFL Week 14 schedule began on Thursday with an ugly matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots. The Patriots rolled into Pittsburgh and jumped out to a 21-3 lead before holding on to win, 21-18, delivering the Steelers a second consecutive killer loss against a bad team. We wrap the week with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Miami Dolphins host the Tennessee Titans at the same time the New York Giants Welcome the Green Bay Packers. With that in mind, let’s get to our NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds.

Last week, the NFL brought us some fun finishes, but we also lost more starting quarterbacks, which is a bummer. The Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks started the week on an exciting note with a 41-35 barn burner, and then we got a Cincinnati Bengals-Jacksonville Jaguars overtime game to end the week on Monday. In between, we got overtime between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans and a close Houston Texans win over the Denver Broncos, among other good games.

On the downside, the Los Angeles Chargers somehow won (and covered!) while only scoring two field goals all game, and the quarterback injury trend continued with Kenny Pickett going out for a few weeks and Trevor Lawrence likely missing some time as well. This could give us six teams on Sunday that will play without their preferred starter due to injury.

In Week 14, we get the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, and New York Giants back from their byes and enter the final bye week of the season. This weekend, only two teams sit down to wrap up the breaks for the 2023 season, as we bid adieu to the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders.

In the ClutchPoints NFL Week 13 picks, predictions, and odds column, it was another fine week choosing the winners, but we were just on the wrong side of .500 against the spread. In the end, we finished the week 8-5 picking the winners straight-up and 6-7 against the spread. Not the best week, but we’re still firmly on the plus side for the season in both categories. The 2023 totals through 13 weeks are now at 123-70 (63.7%) straight-up and 104-80-9 (56.5%) taking on the spread.

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12| Week 13

Now, here are the NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

Full Patriots-Steelers betting preview

The Steelers will have their backup Mitchell Trubisky in this game, but there isn’t a ton of drop-off between him and starter Kenny Pickett. Plus, Trubisky has a Pro Bowl season on his resume and is better than anything the Patriots have under center. The New England offense is terrible, so the Pittsburgh defense should dominate … but the other defense is very good, too. There won’t be a lot of points in this game, and the Patriots-Steelers pick here is Pittsburgh winning and covering in a low-scoring shutout.

Pick: Steelers 13-0

Update: The Steelers did not post a shutout, instead letting Bailey Zappe throw all over them early before failing on the comeback trail late in a brutal 21-18 defeat. 

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

The big winners in the AFC during Week 13 were the Ravens and Bills. These teams got to sit at home, lick their wounds, and heal up for the stretch run while the top of the AFC got beat (Chiefs) or beat up (Jaguars). Now, the Ravens come into this game as the top AFC squad that is probably the healthiest at this point of the season. With the Chiefs and Jaguars losing, it is (for now) a two-team race for the No. 1 seed in the conference between the Ravens and Dolphins. Baltimore will win this game, as the Rams come across the country for an early start, but LA is on a three-game winning streak and fighting for a playoff spot. I think this game will be tighter than the touchdown-and-the-hook spread suggests.

Pick: Ravens 24-20

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)

For those old enough, you may remember Saints fans going to games with paper bags on their heads because the team was so bad in the 1990s. Things aren’t quite that ugly in the Big Easy right now, but New Orleans fans do not like much about their team currently. The Saints have lost three in a row, and division games are always tough, no matter what is happening with the team on the other side.

On the other side of this one, the Panthers didn’t get their new coach bump last week, but they did look slightly better, playing a field goal game with the Buccaneers. This week, that bump will come as this game is the upset special in this NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds column. Give me the Panthers to win straight-up, probably for the last time in the 2023 season.

Pick: Panthers 21-20

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)

More win streaks here as the Colts come in on a four-game tear that has put them in the AFC playoff picture for now. The Bengals, on the other hand, stopped a three-game skid with an overtime win in Jacksonville on Monday. This is a crucial game with major playoff implications on both sides, so both teams need this one desperately.

Jake Browning played incredibly well against the Jaguars, but most backup quarterbacks can’t sustain a high level of play week-to-week when they come in for the starter. With another week of film on Browning, the Colts defense will have more for the Cincy QB than the Jaguars did. That said, the Bengals are the more talented team all around, and if Cincinnati simply keeps getting the ball to its playmakers like Ja’Marr Chase, Browning can win this game.

I liked this one more when it was Colts -1.5, but I'll role with my original pick and take the Bengals even giving points.

Pick: Bengals 30-27

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Speaking of backup quarterbacks, Joe Flacco came in off his couch last week and played well for the Browns. This isn’t the 2014 Ravens, but Flacco being smart with a good Browns defense can be a good team. Maybe even a playoff team.

This battle will likely be between Jaguars backup CJ Beathard and fourth-string Flacco, which could make for an ugly contest. Trevor Lawrence is the straw that stirs the drink for his team way more than Deshaun Watson (or Dorian Thompson-Robinson or OJ Walker) were, so there’s less of a drop-off there. Also, the Browns D has been incredible at home this season, allowing just 10.7 points per game. It won’t be pretty, but let’s take Cleveland in this NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds space for the win and the cover.

Pick: Browns 16-10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Neither one of these teams is very good in the grand scheme of things, but somehow this game is for the lead in the brutal NFC South. A win for the Buccaneers would give them a tie for first place in the division and make sure this futile race goes right down to the end of the season. And that’s exactly what I predict is going to happen.

I’ve done well this season in the NFL picks, predictions, and odds column by operating under the assumption that the Falcons are a little worse than Vegas gives them credit for, and the Buccaneers are slightly better. This hasn’t always worked, because both teams are bad overall, but I’m going to stick to my usual MO here and go with Baker Mayfield and the Buc.

Pick: Buccaneers 19-17

Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears

The Lions haven't played well the past few weeks, save for the first eight minutes of last week's win over the Saints where they jumped out to a 21-0 lead before barely hanging on to a 33-28 win. On the flip side, the Bears have played better of late and are coming off a bye, which may give them some extra juice.

That said, I don't believe in the Bears' coaching staff enough to think they'll have a killer game plan after their bye, and I have not lost so much confidence in the Lions that I think they'll struggle four games in a row and lose (or barely win) against the Bears. If the Lions do cross me this week, though, I may be off them for a while!

Pick: Lions 28-18

Houston Texans (-3.5) at New York Jets

I tried, Jets. I tried to give you one last gasp to keep your playoff hopes alive and keep the Aaron Rodgers return narrative going. Last week, I picked you, and how did you repay me? With an ugly 13-8 loss to the Falcons. Come on, man!

This week, I’m not messing around with these Jets anymore. Zach Wilson is back under center, but it's not like that matters much. Give me CJ Stroud to guide his team to a win here with relative ease. Yes, not having fellow rookie sensation Tank Dell hurts, but give me the team with one competent quarterback as opposed to a bunch of incompetent ones all day.

Pick: Texans 27-10

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

The Seahawks still have two games left in their brutal stretch of games and get the 49ers for the second time in 17 days, with the Eagles a week after that. Seattle looked good last Thursday, giving the Cowboys everything they could handle, so my gut tells me Geno Smith and company at least hang with San Francisco in this one. Many people think this, too, as the spread has plummeted from 12.5 to 10.5 in the last few days.

All that said, my mantra this season has been that, when fully healthy, the 49ers are the best team in the NFL, and blowing out the Eagles last weekend further proved that. In sports betting, it’s always better to go with your head than your gut, so I will take the 49ers to cover in this one despite really wanting to pick a close Niners win or even a Seahawks upset.

Pick: 49ers 33-20

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

Two teams coming off a bye meet up in Sin City this week, and by all reports, the Vikings are sticking with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback in this one despite his poor showing back in Week 12. That may be a mistake, and it wouldn’t be a shock if Kevin O’Connell had a quick hook in favor of Nick Mullens if things go bad. One thing we do know, though, is that Justin Jefferson will be back, and that’s a big boost for the away team.

The Raiders have underperformed their talent most of the season, save for the two games after owner Mark Davis fired Josh McDaniels. Still, if Vegas would just pound the ball to Josh Jacobs and force-feed Davante Adams, they could be in most games. This is a tough call for me because I do like the Raiders' talent, but give me the team with a full-time coach coming off a bye and one of the best players in the league making a triumphant return.

Pick: Vikings 23-19

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

The Broncos finally came back to earth last weekend with their loss to the Texans. Still, the team is far and away better than they were at the beginning of the season, and Sean Payton should get credit for that. As for the Chargers, they won and covered in a 6-0 game in one of the ugliest showings in recent NFL memory. Brandon Staley gets no credit for that. The Chargers keep finding ways to lose, and while the Broncos' five-game win streak did have some smoke-and-mirror statistics powering it, they are the more competent team and more competent coaching staff overall.

Pick: Broncos 24-21

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

This is the Bills' last stand, coming off a bye, against a team that is (almost) as flawed as Buffalo is. This may be the Western New Yorker in me talking, but I just can't see Josh Allen and company losing this game and essentially getting knocked out of the 2023 playoffs in Week 14. The real Bills fan in me knows that won't happen until Week 18! (As I type through the tears.)

For real, though, Buffalo is coming off a bye, and the Chiefs continue to show some real flaws in the passing game. If this turns into a shootout, that gives the edge to the Bills. And while Patrick Mahomes ultimately has Allen's number in big games, this game is much bigger for Buffalo than it is for the Chiefs, so give me the Bills by a billion (or just under a touchdown).

Pick: Bills 37-31

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

The Bills and Chiefs could provide an incredible game on Sunday afternoon, but the Sunday NFC East nightcap could easily top it. I get why this spread is what it is. The Cowboys are on a four-game win streak and remain undefeated at home this season. Plus, the Eagles don’t look as dominant as they did last season, and injuries are taking their toll on the defense.

However, some of this spread is also because the Cowboys are the most public team in the NFL, and some people — not the author of this NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds column, but some people — were surprised that the 49ers so brutally beat the Eagles down last weekend. The truth is, the Eagles are not (and were never) the best team in the conference this season, but they are the best in their division. Coming off a loss last week, I see a Philly rally here and an incredibly tight game either way.

Pick: Eagles 31-30

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)

There’s a simple question I ask myself before picking Dolphins games. I say, “Self, is the other team good?” If the answer is yes, I pick the other team, because the Dolphins haven’t beat a team with a winning record yet. If the answer is no, I pick the Dolphins by more than the spread suggests because, as the 2023 version of the Greatest Show on Turf, Miami crushes bad teams. Well, the Titans are not a good team, so I see no reason that the Dolphins shouldn’t win this won by a whole heck of a lot.

Pick: Dolphins 34-12

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at New York Giants

Why are there two Monday night games this week, and, more importantly, why are the Giants in one of them? We’ll never know. What we do know, though, is that the Packers seem like a good team now, and the Giants are definitively a bad team. Coming off a bye, they may have some tricks up their sleeves, but the G-Men still have Tommy DeVito as the magician executing those tricks, so the Pack likely won’t be all that worried.

The truth is I’m still not 100 percent sold on Jordan Love as a top-tier, playoff-caliber quarterback, but the results the last few weeks are hard to argue with. I do think the Packers are the more talented team overall here, though, so that’s enough for me to take them to cover in this NFL Week 14 picks, predictions, and odds space.

Pick: Packers 24-16

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