NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 7: Dolphins down Eagles

The NFL Week 7 schedule began with a game that turned from a snoozer into a real barn burner. It looked like Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars were going to run away from a struggling Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints, but the Saints made things exciting late before falling just short, 31-24. To bookend the slate, we get the San Francisco 49ers at the Minnesota Vikings, which will be a bummer without Justin Jefferson and Deebo Samuel, with Christian McCaffrey also uncertain. Now, let’s get to the rest of our NFL Week 7 picks, predictions, and odds.

Last weekend, there were a lot of surprises on the football field. The Cleveland Browns upset the 49ers, the Houston Texans beat the favored Saints, and the New York Jets shocked the Philadelphia Eagles. The lowly Denver Broncos and New York Giants gave the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, respectively, all they could handle, too, but couldn’t close the deal.

As the NFL Week 7 schedule commences, we welcome the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers back to the fold after their time off. However, we also say goodbye to a whopping six teams until Week 8, including the Jets, Texans, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, and Tennessee Titans. This makes for a thin menu of games, as this weekend is one of only two six-team bye weeks. The next time we see it will be in Week 13.

In the ClutchPoints NFL picks, predictions, and odds series for Week 6, things were just as surprising as they were on the field. Still, while we weren’t paying the bills this week, the picks cashed in at over .500. We were 9-6 straight up, and the Cowboys’ win and half-point cover on Monday night got us to 8-7 against the spread for the slate. That takes us to 62-31 (66.6%) getting the winners right and 58-32-3 (62.3%) against the spread.

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6

So, let’s get right to the NFL Week 7 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds

Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-2)

Full Jaguars-Saints betting preview

This spread is one of the most intriguing in this NFL Week 7 picks, predictions, and odds column. The Saints are favored largely due to Trevor Lawrence's injury status. Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury and could be a true game-time decision, although he's “optimistic” about playing. The Saints have wins over the Titans, Panthers, and New England Patriots (all bad teams) and losses to the Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Texans (all only slightly above-average squads). Jacksonville is at least slightly above average, and with three wins in a row, they are bordering on quite good. If Lawrence plays, look for the Jags to pull the “upset.”

Pick: Jaguars 27-20

Update: We nailed the point differential with the Jaguars pulling out a seven-point victory over the Saints.

Cleveland Browns (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Full Browns-Colts betting preview

The Colts will definitely be without their starting quarterback as rookie first-round pick Anthony Richardson is now out for the year after requiring shoulder surgery on his hurt arm. Deshaun Watson is also nursing a shoulder injury, but he will likely give it a go. Indy has to be bummed after its savior got hurt so early, and the Cleveland defense is an absolute menace this year. No matter who is under center for the Browns on Sunday, that D will rule the day, and the away team will take home the victory.

Pick: Browns 17-10

Washington Commanders (-3) at New York Giants

Full Commanders-Giants betting preview

Both these teams have glaring weaknesses. The Giants' offensive line is in shambles, and the Commanders have one of the worst secondaries in the league. The Commanders are better equipped to take advantage of the Giants’ weakness than New York is, although if Tyrod Taylor plays again over Daniel Jones, the offense could look better again. This game is a coin-flip, and these two teams often split in recent years, and they even tied last year. I don’t have a strong reason why outside of personal preference, but I’ll take the road favorite here.

Pick: Commanders 21-16

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Full Falcons-Buccaneers betting preview

This NFC South matchup is more intriguing than most fans thought it would be ahead of the 2023 NFL season. Atlanta is a bit of a mystery and is definitely inconsistent. They’ve beaten three first-year starters (Bryce Young, Jordan Love, and CJ Stroud) but lost to one last week as well (Sam Howell). Baker Mayfield is anything but a first-year starter, and after last week’s loss to the Lions, the Buccaneers will be hungry to prove their first few weeks weren’t a fluke. Still, this should be a close game even though I like the favorite to cover.

Pick: Buccaneers 19-14

Buffalo Bills (-7.5) at New England Patriots

Full Bills-Patriots betting preview

Josh Allen and the Bills offense has no rhythm or flow right now. Last time that happened — back in the Week 1 loss to the Jets — offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey fixed the problem, and the team rattled off 123 points in the next three games. Also, the Patriots are a bad team without a quarterback, and the Bills D will have a field day here. This game is payback for all the times Bill Belichick and Tom Brady kicked the Bills when they were down throughout the first two decades of the 2000s. This line is a steal at twice the price, even with Allen a little banged up.

Pick: Bills 28-6

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at Chicago Bears

Full Raiders-Bears betting preview

This game is hard to pick in this NFL Week 7 picks, predictions, and odds column because of the quarterback situation. Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Fields are both out, and it's going to be Brian Hoyer vs. Tyson Bagent on Sunday. Woo hoo! Las Vegas is 0-9 against the spread as a road favorite under head coach Josh McDaniels. That trend should continue as Bagent and the Bears do enough to keep the game close and maybe even win outright at home.

Pick: Bears 13-12

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Full Lions-Ravens betting preview

Last week in this NFL Week 7 picks, predictions, and odds space, I said I believed in the Ravens offense, and eventually they were going to explode. Last week Lamar Jackson didn’t exactly combust, but they played more than well enough to get a win. I still ultimately believe in the Ravens offense, but I just believe in both Lions units more. The Detroit defense is underrated, and the Lions offense is a juggernaut. Yes, running back Dabid Montgomery is out, and Jahmyr Gibbs is banged up, too, but this unit is still explosive with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta. That’s why I like the Lions on the road in a tight one.

Pick: Lions 24-23

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

Full Steelers-Rams betting preview

The Steelers haven’t figured it out yet this season on offense, and the defense can win games on its own when TJ Watt and company are playing great (see Week 2 vs. Browns). However, that’s a lot of pressure on one unit. As for the Rams, they are outperforming expectations and show flashes of that Super Bowl-winning team at times. That said, the Steelers are coming off their bye, SoFi Stadium will be packed to the gills with Terrible Towels, and the away team is 14-3-1 against the spread as 3-point or fewer dogs. Give me (can’t believe I’m saying it) Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada on the road!

Pick: Steelers 23-17

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)

Full Cardinals-Seahawks betting preview

The Seahawks went into their bye week feeling pretty good after dismantling the Giants on Monday Night Football back in Week 4. Last Sunday, though, the team’s offensive line problems showed up in a big way, and the Bengals humbled Pete Carroll’s bunch a bit. This week, Seattle welcomes Arizona to town, and the home team has the talent advantage at basically every position. The Cardinals are playing hard and could get Kyler Murray back in a few weeks, but until then, they’re no match for these Seahawks, injuries or no injuries.

Pick: Seahawks 28-16

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

Full Chargers-Chiefs betting preview

Both these AFC West teams are disappointing in different ways. The Chargers are just flat-out disappointing. Justin Herbert is supposed to be one of the best young quarterbacks in the league, and the team has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Still, they are just 2-4 on the season. The 5-1 Chiefs are just frustrating from a betting perspective. With Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at the switches, why can’t they just blow teams out and cover every game? They mess around and let teams hang with them for too long. In the end, though, I’ll take the team that’s bad on FanDuel over the team that’s bad in real life to win but not cover.

Pick: Chiefs 30-27

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos

Full Packers-Broncos betting preview

Jordan Love is dead last in the league in completion percentage at 55.6%. That’s horrific, and the Packers won’t win many games with him playing like that. However, the team is coming off its bye, and, hopefully, Matt LaFleur and company have figured out some way to get Love more easy completions to move the sticks. Plus, at this point, Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos may be openly tanking like the Detroit Pistons. Until Payton and Russell Wilson show they are capable of getting on the same page, I’ll be betting against the Broncos, even when they are home dogs.

Pick: Packers 19-13

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Full Dolphins-Eagles betting preview

On paper, this should be one of the most exciting games of the 2023 NFL season thus far. The Dolphins and Eagles have looked no worse than one of the best two or three teams in their respective divisions this season. Miami is an offensive juggernaut, and Philadelphia has lines on both sides of the ball that can beat a team into submission. This will be an interesting clash of styles. From what both these teams have put on tape through six weeks, it just seems like the Dolphins offense will be the best unit on the field Sunday, so I’ll go with that.

Pick: Dolphins 30-27

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Minnesota Vikings

As noted above, the NFL schedule-makers surely thought this would be a banger featuring superstars like Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel when they put together the NFL Week 7 schedule last spring. Unfortunately, we could be missing all these players when Monday Night Football rolls around. There’s a chance McCaffrey will play, and even if not, I’ll take Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle coming off a humbling loss against Kirk Cousins and some spare parts any day of the week, especially on Monday in primetime.

Pick: 49ers 34-21

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