NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 9: Bills edge Bengals

The NFL Week 9 schedule kicked off with an intriguing young quarterback matchup with banged-up second-year signal-caller Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers taking on Week 8 sensation rookie Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans, with the Steelers pulling out another tight win. We wrap up the week on Monday with the should-be-better Los Angeles Chargers taking on the should-be-worse New York Jets. Now, let’s get to our NFL Week 9 picks, predictions, and odds.

Week 8 was horrific for starting quarterbacks. In the early window, Pickett, Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Matthew Stafford, and Desmond Ridder all started — but didn’t finish — their respective games. Cousins is now done for the year, Pickett says he’ll play on Thursday night, Stafford’s status is up in the air, and Taylor and Ridder will take a seat this weekend in favor of Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke.

While we didn’t get many marquee matchups last week, the NFL Week 9 slate gives us four dynamite games. All eyes will be on Frankfurt, Germany, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Ohio for the Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, and Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals.

As the NFL Week 9 slate gets underway, no teams are returning from byes, as all 32 squads took the field last Thursday, Sunday, and Monday. This weekend, though, we say goodbye to some of the best teams in the league (and one of the worst) as the Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, and Denver Broncos all take a seat until Week 10.

As for the ClutchPoints NFL picks, predictions, and odds series for Week 8, we were great picking the winners last week, identifying the victorious team 75% of the time. However, late backdoor covers by the Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals pushed us under .500 against the spread. This week, we ended up 12-4 straight up and 6-8-2 using the point spread. Picking winners, the percentage keeps going up, with an 80-42 (65.5%) mark now. The craziness of the NFL and those infuriating backdoor covers are bringing down the ATS number, but we’re still making money on the season at 68-49-5 (55.7%).

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

So, let’s get right to the NFL Week 9 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Full Titans-Steelers betting preview

It’s just one game. It’s just one game. It’s just one game. That’s the mantra Titans fans (and the ClutchPoints NFL Week 8 picks, predictions, and odds series author) need to repeat over and over again after Will Levis threw four touchdown passes and led his team to a win during his first professional appearance. He did look incredible, though. Despite all the naysayers saying he struggled his senior season at Kentucky, he was too inaccurate, or his arms were too big (yup, that was a thing) Levis looked like Josh Allen 2.0 on Sunday, which is what us in the Levis Hive believed all along. Even if Levis is great, there will, of course, be ups and downs. That said, Levis will stay up for at least one more week this Thursday, which means my Titans-Steelers pick is Tennessee.

Pick: Titans 25-24

Update: The Steelers pulled out a 20-16 victory over the Titans on Thursday Night Football

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) in Frankfurt, Germany

In one of the four killer matchups this week, Tyreek Hill and the new Fastest Show on Turf take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who are coming off of a ridiculous loss to the Broncos, a team the Dolphins beat by 50. The Chiefs just don’t have the wide receivers they need for the offense to flourish this season, and now the Dolphins will likely have Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey back at corner. Also, one more small but crucial note. The Dolphins have been in Germany since Monday, while the Chiefs fly in on Thursday. I believe that in these overseas games, the team that is in-country longer has a distinct advantage.

Pick: Dolphins 30-26

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-3)

This one is pretty simple for me, even though it runs contrary to what the Las Vegas oddsmakers seem to think about this game. The Packers have lost four in a row and five of their last six because Jordan Love is not the guy. Yes, the Rams aren’t the same team without Matthew Stafford, but at this point, I’ll take Brett Rypien — coached up this week by Sean McVay — over Love and his 57.7%, league-worst completion rate. Frankly, I don’t like betting on either of these teams at this point in the season, but they make me pick all the games here in the NFL Week 9 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Pick: Rams 10-9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-3)

The Buccaneers have lost three in a row and four of their last five, which is why they are underdogs at the Texans this week. However, those four losses were to the Eagles, Lions, Falcons, and Bills, which are all tough teams. Tampa Bay isn’t as down as they may seem, and rookie quarterback CJ Stroud has not earned enough of my trust yet to think he’ll cover a field goal spread, even at home. Give me Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers straight up.

Pick: Buccaneers 17-13

Washington Commanders at New England Patriots (-3)

The Commanders waved the white flag on the 2023 NFL season ahead of Week 9, trading their two best pass rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Those moves also signaled that head coach Ron Rivera and his staff are embarking on the final nine games of their Washington coaching careers. All this adds up to the fact that everyone is counting the Commanders out. However, I see this as having the potential for a just (basically) fired-the-coach bump. Plus, the Patriots have only won two games against division rivals (Jets, Bills), whom Bill Belichick knows extremely well. That’s why in this NFL Week 9 picks, predictions, and odds space, I’ll take Riverboat Ron and his crew on the sinking Commanders ship.

Pick: Commanders 20-10

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

Well, Tyson Bagent wasn’t the second coming of Jim McMahon after all, so the Bears took it on the chin from the Chargers in Week 8. I don’t really have all that much confidence in the Saints to come up big when they need to — and they need to with three winnable games against the Bears, Vikings, and Falcons coming up that will likely determine if they win the NFC South or not — but they are better than the Bears. With Montez Sweat now in the fold, are the Bears a little better than a touchdown-plus dog against the Saints? I think they might be, but the Bears are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games and 3-12-1 ATS overall in their last 16. I don’t love it, but give me the Saints.

Pick: Saints 21-10

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Make no mistake about it: without Justin Jefferson and now Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are a bad team. Even so, the Falcons are starting Taylor Heinicke over Desmond Ridder this week, which is a clear admission things aren’t working in Atlanta. If this was the newly acquired Joshua Dobbs starting this week, I may have picked the Vikings straight up. However, with 25-year-old rookie Jaren Hall at the sticks, I’ll do something I don’t love doing in this NFL Week 9 picks, predictions, and odds column and pick the Falcons to win, but not cover.

Pick: Falcons 13-10

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-8.5)

Will it be Deshaun Watson on Sunday or PJ Walker? Does it really matter? The Browns offense is far from confidence-inspiring, but against the Cardinals with fifth-round rookie out of Houston Clayton Tune under center, it is the incredible Browns defense that will win the team the game. Unbelievably, for the second time in two paragraphs of this NFL Week 9 picks, predictions, and odds column, I’m writing that if Josh Dobbs was starting for a team I may have picked them. But alas, he is not starting for either the Cardinals or Vikings this week, so give me the Browns by a lot.

Pick: Browns 28-9

Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

In the second of what should be four excellent games on the NFL Week 9 slate, the Ravens are hosting the Seahawks in a 1:00 p.m. ET tilt. These are both good teams that should figure prominently into their conference’s postseason in a few months. And while AFC-NFC showdowns matter a little less than conference or division games, this will be a great measuring stick for both teams. In the end, the Seahawks probably have the better defense, and Leonard Williams was a great pickup to help the team’s poor run defense. But the game between the defenses is smaller than the one between the Ravens offense, which is clicking nicely now, and the Seahawks offense, which isn’t playing as well as last season under Geno Smith. That’s while I’ll take Lamar Jackson to get the W, but the game to be within a field goal.

Pick: Ravens 27-24

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Colts have been up-and-down all season, no matter who has been at quarterback. One thing we know for sure, though, is that Gardner Minshew can put up points. There may be a lot of game-losing mistakes along the way, but he can put up points. Even though Bryce Young won the Battle of the 2023 QBs last week over CJ Stroud 15-13, we don’t know if he can win a track meet yet, so I’ll take the Colts as road favorites in this one.

Pick: Colts 28-16

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

This NFC East showdown should be a banger! It’s the swarming Cowboys defense vs. the mauling Eagles offense. This should be another fun game to watch, but the fact that I think it will be a close, back-and-forth affair means that I have to take the Eagles here. When Dallas wins this season, they jump out early and win big. Micah Parsons and company have won by 40, 20, 35, 3, and 23. The only close game was when Dak Prescott outdueled Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles aren’t the team that they were last year, but they still know how to win, especially in their division.

Pick: Eagles 28-24

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

The Raiders fired head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler a few hours after they got back from trick-or-treating in the wee hours of November 1. This makes me like the Raiders in Week 9 for two reasons. One is that teams often get at least a one-game bump after firing the coach, including Las Vegas, which won its first two games after firing Jon Gruden and putting in Rich Bisaccia in 2021. Second, McDaniels was actively making his team worse. If interim head coach Antonio Pierce makes sure rookie Aidan O'Connell pumps the ball to Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, that should be enough to beat the Giants. Plus, it sounds like Daniel Jones will be back, and that must make Maxx Crosby’s mouth water.

Pick: Raiders 24-10

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)

Josh Allen’s superpower is playing at the exact level of his competition seemingly every game. When he’s staring at Mac Jones across the field, Allen seems to play just as ordinary as his opponent. Against Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow (in the regular season), he dons his cape and flies the Bills across the finish line. Buffalo missed a real opportunity to improve the offense at the NFL trade deadline by adding a WR like Hunter Renfrow, but it did patch the defense by replacing CB Tre’Davious White with Rasul Douglas. Douglas will help the Bills cover the Bengals’ incredible pass catchers, led by Ja’Marr Chase, and get the Bills the W.

Pick: Bills 31-30

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at New York Jets

Justin Herbert and the Chargers finally looked like the team its fans had hoped for in primetime last week against the Bears, putting up a 30-spot on Chicago. However, the Bears stink, and Brandon Staley still needs to prove a lot of things, including that he can coach ‘em up again after a big win. On the other side, the Jets keep winning, which keeps their hopes alive that Aaron Rodgers can make a miraculous return at some point. Under the bright lights of Broadway (or at least a Broadway-adjacent town in New Jersey), I have more faith in the Jets defense than anything the Chargers have shown this season to wrap up the Week 9 edition of our NFL picks, predictions, and odds column.

Pick: Jets 16-14

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