NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 11: Eagles get revenge on Chiefs

The NFL Week 11 schedule started with plenty of drama, with Joe Burrow and Mark Andrews going down to season-ending injury as the Baltimore Ravens beat the Cincinnati Bengals. On Monday Night Football to finish the week, it’s a Super Bowl rematch (and the Taylor Swift Bowl) with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. So, on Sunday, if you have any Thanksgiving prep to get done, go ahead and pass on this slate. Now, let’s get to our NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds.

Last week was a history-making one with six walk-off field goals, which is the most ever in a single slate. That was great for the Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, and Denver Broncos fans, but not so fun for the Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Buffalo Bills.

As the NFL Week 11 run gets underway, we welcome back the Chiefs, Eagles, Miami Dolphins, and Los Angeles Rams to the schedule, while saying goodbye to the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and New Orleans Saints. Honestly, none of you will be missed.

In other news, we’re back, baby! Here in the ClutchPoints NFL Week 10 picks, predictions, and odds series, it was a massive week for the picks, going 10-4 straight up and a rolling-in-dough 10-3-1 against the spread. Ten-win weeks will boost the numbers nicely, and this brings us to 97-53 (64.6%) straight-up and 83-60-7 (58.0%) taking on the spread.

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10

So, now let’s get right to the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Full Bengals-Ravens betting preview

The AFC North is wild. Joe Burrow and the Bengals stunk it up at the beginning of the year, Deshaun Watson is now done for the season (but the Browns still have the best defense in the league), the Ravens might be the best team in the NFL (but they are 2-2 in the division), and the Steelers might have the worst offense in the league (but they’re undefeated in the division).

With Watson out and Matt Canada still in, this Bengals-Ravens matchup should ultimately represent the two teams that challenge for the AFC North crown. Both teams are coming off bad losses last week, though, so whoever turns it around quicker should win this game. The Ravens are home, but the Bengals are 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 road games and the last 20 times they were underdogs. So, for my Bengals-Ravens pick, I like those trends, and I like the Bengals to win straight-up to make the AFC North even tighter.

Pick: Bengals 28-27

Update: With Joe Burrow going down, the Ravens took care of business in a 34-20 win. 

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Green Bay Packers

Full Chargers-Packers betting preview

The Chargers are playing terribly on defense, as evidenced by their 41-38 loss to the Lions last week. The good news is you don’t necessarily need defense against the Packers because Jordan Love has the worst completion percentage in the league at a putrid 58.7%. Despite having one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert, the Chargers are a .500 team because of their coaching and supporting cast. That’s why I like them to get back to even on the season by beating the Packers on the road and doing so comfortably.

Pick: Chargers 24-16

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)

Full Titans-Jaguars betting preview

There is no shame in getting smoked by a full healthy 49ers team, like the Jaguars did in Week 10. However, there is something not clicking with the offense right now, which is concerning coming out of the bye. Jags fans will likely say it’s offensive coordinator and play-caller Press Taylor, and they may be right. Still, unless Doug Pederson secretly figured something out or took back play-calling duties this week, a touchdown spread is too much against feisty Will Levis and the Titans. That’s why the Jaguars win, but the Titans cover.

Pick: Jaguars 20-17

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-14)

Full Raiders-Dolphins betting preview

The Raiders got a nice two-win new coach bump when they replaced the hated and incompetent Josh McDaniels with the inspiring Antonio Pierce. However, while inspiration might be enough to beat the lowly Jets and Giants, they’ll need a lot more than that to even hang with the Dolphins coming off their bye. Plus, rookie sensation running back De’Von Achane may be back this week, and that gives the Miami offense an even more dynamic look. No cigars in the Raiders locker room this week. This is Dolphins by a lot.

Pick: Dolphins 35-20

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers

Full Cowboys-Panthers betting preview

This game is either Cowboys by a ton or a walk-off field goal game. That’s just how Dallas rolls. They lost to the Cardinals this season and have beaten the Giants 89-17 over two games. Arizona had some Josh Dobbs magic in that game, though, and there seems to be no Bryce Young magic in the Carolinas, despite his lofty draft status. This seems like a game that the Cowboys (and their defense) will hit early and score often, and when the Big D snowball starts rolling downhill, it’s impossible for bad teams to stop it.

Bonus prediction here in the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column: Dak Prescott throws for over 300 yards with three or more touchdowns for the fourth straight game. That will tie him with Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes for second-most consecutive games with those stats, one game behind Steve Young, who did it five straight times in 1998.

Pick: Cowboys 40-12

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-5.5)

Full Cardinals-Texans betting preview

This is a wild game for so many reasons. Texans rookie quarterback CJ Stroud is getting legit MVP buzz as he leads his once-terrible franchise to a playoff spot, while Cardinals QB Kyler Murray came off the mat after a year away to lead his (possibly) still terrible team to a rousing victory over the Falcons in Week 10. Plus, amid all the signal-caller storylines, the Cards own the Texans' first-round pick in 2024! If anyone had the Cardinals vs. Texans as the most exciting game on the Sunday slate ahead of this season, well then, your predictions are even better than the ones here in the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds space. Anyway, give me the Texans, but only by a field goal.

Pick: Texans 24-21

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Full Steelers-Browns betting preview

This game was a lot more interesting before Deshaun Watson went out for the season with a shoulder injury. The Browns still have an incredible defense that will give Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada fits, but Cleveland announced it will start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson in Week 11, who threw three picks (and no touchdowns) in his last start against the Ravens. This game will be ugly, but with the Browns reeling from the Watson injury, the Steelers should be able to steal this one on the road.

Pick: Steelers 15-9

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-9.5)

Full Giants-Commanders betting preview

The Commanders shouldn’t be favored by more than a touchdown in any game it seems. Their four wins have come by four, two, eight, and three points, so the team hasn’t beaten anyone by 9.5 this whole season. That said, the Giants are dreadful and will again start Tommy DeVito, whose biggest claim to fame is still living at home with his parents for the free laundry and chicken cutlets. I like the Commanders in this game, but the points are just too much. Washington should still win, but the kid will keep it close after gaining some confidence with garbage time scores last week vs the Cowboys.

Pick: Commanders 20-13

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7.5)

Full Bears-Lions betting preview

Tyson Bagent doesn’t have nearly as much talent as Justin Fields, but the understudy overshadows the star in one important category: Confidence. Fields is a top pick whom Matt Eberflus and company have destroyed. Bagent is an undrafted Division II rookie who is starting in the NFL. Of course, the latter plays freer and with more moxie than Fields. The point being the Bears might actually be a better offense with Bagent than Fields, despite the talent difference, and it looks like Fields will get the start on Sunday. Anyway, I had to write a bunch of words here because if I only wrote “Lions win by a ton no matter who plays QB for the Bears” that would be no fun!

Pick: Lions 33-14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)

Full Buccaneers-49ers betting preview

Give me (almost) all the big spreads this week, I don’t care! This is the time of the season when the cream rises to the top, and the middling to bad teams start at least kayak-ing flights to Cancun in January. While Baker Mayfield and the Bucs got the win last weekend over the Titans, their browser history definitely has some travel sites on it. And my take on the 49ers this season is that a full-strength San Francisco squad is the best team in the league. Take away any one of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, or George Kittle, and that is no longer the case. They are all ready to roll in Week 11, though, so give me the 49ers to cover here.

Pick: 49ers 28-13

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)

Full Jets-Bills betting preview

The fired coordinator bump isn’t quite the lock that the fired head coach bump is, but the Bills offense should have some renewed vigor after head coach Sean McDermott showed Ken Dorsey the door. Plus, Josh Allen can’t throw three picks to one player again like he did in the Bills Week 1 loss to the Jets… right? I think new OC Joe Brady pulls out all the stops, and at least for one week, this looks like vintage Allen and the Bills offense. The one thing I’m weary of making this NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column pick, though, is if it doesn’t, the Orchard Park faithful could turn on this team real quick and make the game ugly for the home side. Still, give me the Bills by a billion.

Pick: Bills 35-6

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)

Full Seahawks-Rams betting preview

The Seahawks have all the pieces to be a dangerous NFC playoff team, but they have yet to put together a complete game on both sides of the ball. In their 11-sack win over the Giants, the offense didn’t look great, and in their two wins where the offense put up 37 points, they allowed 31 and 27 on defense. Even with Matthew Stafford back, the Seahawks are at least playing well enough to avoid another 30-13 mugging the Rams gave them in Week 1. The NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds call here is that the Seahawks win comfortably but still not in dominant fashion.

Pick: Seahawks 21-17

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Full Vikings-Broncos betting preview

While the Antonio Pierce pixie dust might be running out for the Raiders, give me one more week of the Josh Dobbs magic for the Vikings. Yes, the Broncos looked good at times against the hapless Bills last week, but Sean McDermott’s blitzes flustered Russell Wilson at times. Vikings DC Brian Flores sends six rushers more than anyone else in the league, so Wilson may not look as good this week. And it’s just fun riding on the Dobbs bandwagon for one more week here in the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Pick: Vikings 24-23

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

This is a Super Bowl rematch, the Kelce Brothers Bowl, and Taylor Swift’s old favorite team vs. her new boyfriend’s team! What can be more exciting than that? Well, there is also the fact that these are still two of the best (if not the two best) football teams in the NFL. This should be an incredible game. I think what this will come down to is that the Eagles will want this win more to get revenge for their Super Bowl loss. The Chiefs don’t care about this game nearly as much because their Super Bowl each season is the actual Super Bowl, not a Week 11 game. Plus, the Chiefs are running away with the AFC West and should have an easier time winning their conference than the Eagles. Give me Philly by the reverse Super Bowl 56 score.

Pick: Eagles 38-35

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