NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 10: Bills edge Broncos

The NFL Week 10 slate started with a brutal matchup between the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football. True to form, we saw some terrible football, with the Bears pulling out an ugly 16-13 victory to help their 2024 draft position. To cap it all off on Monday, we get the slumping Buffalo Bills taking on the disappointing 3-5 Denver Broncos. Now, let’s get to our NFL Week 10 picks, predictions, and odds.

Last week was an exciting one, as several games provided surprising or exhilarating outcomes. The Kansas City Chiefs outdueled the Miami Dolphins in Germany, the Las Vegas Raiders put a beatdown on the New York Giants after firing Josh McDaniels, and Josh Dobbs came into the game for the Minnesota Vikings barely knowing his new teammates and led them to a win over the Atlanta Falcons.

As the NFL Week 10 schedule gets underway, the Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, and San Francisco 49ers all return from their bye weeks. And now, we lose three of the best teams in the league this season, with the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Philadelphia Eagles all going on byes, as well as the Los Angeles Rams.

In the ClutchPoints NFL Week 9 picks, predictions, and odds series, it was a down week overall, hitting 7-7 straight up and 5-8-1 against the spread. However, I did write that if Dobbs was playing I would have taken the Vikings, so I’ll take a little solace in that. Overall, that brings us to a still-solid 87-49 (63.9%) straight-up and a still-respectable 73-57-6 (53.6%) taking on the oddsmakers.

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

So, now let’s get right to the NFL Week 10 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3)

Full Panthers-Bears betting preview

Bears quarterback Justin Fields is doubtful for this game, which means we will likely get a battle between the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Bryce Young, against undrafted rookie QB Tyson Bagent. The Panthers have a bottom-third run defense, though, and if the Bears are smart, they will pound the ball at them and limit Bagent’s exposure. If they do this and NFL trade deadline acquisition Montez Sweat can help put pressure on Young, Chicago should be able to take this one. The hook gives me a little pause here, but ultimately Chicago is the better team right now, so my Bears-Panthers pick is definitely taking them to win and hesitantly to cover.

Pick: Bears 16-10

Update: The Bears won but unfortunately failed to cover. 

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at New England Patriots

Full Colts-Patriots betting preview

The NFL international series returns to Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany, one more time as the Colts take on the Patriots on the other side of The Pond. Thanks to the Tom Brady Era, this should have a home game feel for the Pats, as a lot of German fans love New England. However, they won’t recognize this iteration of the team, which is about as far from Super Bowl glory as you can get. With Jonathan Taylor starting to get back in the swing, look for the Colts' rushing attack to dominate the day and get the win in Deutschland.

Pick: Colts 20-10

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Full 49ers-Jaguars betting preview

This should be a fascinating AFC-NFC contest between two of the best teams in each conference. Both teams are coming off their bye weeks, so there is no advantage there, and the 49ers are traveling west to east to play a 1 p.m. start, so that favors the Jags a bit. However, the biggest advantage that either team has is that the Niners got Deebo Samuel back healthy during their week off and should be at full strength on Sunday. It’s still my opinion that a full-strength 49ers team is the best in the league, so I’ll take them to get back on track in this NFL Week 10 picks, predictions, and odds piece.

Pick: 49ers 30-24

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Full Saints-Vikings betting prevew

Last week’s Miracle in Minneapolis II (even though it was in Atlanta) led by Josh Dobbs off the airplane could have been an anomaly. Things like that just happen sometimes in the NFL, and the Vikings got a little lucky against the right opponent. However, there is another way to look at it where Dobbs is just a competent QB who makes plays, and he won’t be a huge dropoff from Kirk Cousins. The Saints have won two in a row, but beating the Bears and Colts is nothing to write home about. This is absolutely based on gut and heart more than head, but in this NFL Week 10 picks, predictions, and odds column, give me Dobbs and the Vikings straight-up at home.

Pick: Vikings 20-19

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Full Titans-Buccaneers betting preview

These teams are second and third in red zone defense this season, so this game could be a slog-fest played between the 20s. That said, both teams have a knack for big plays, with Mike Evans and DeAndre Hopkins catching balls, so there could be a few fireworks in this potential low-scoring game. The Buccaneers have lost four in a row, but three of those have been pretty close. Will Levis will someday be an excellent quarterback in this league, but in his third start, I’m not sure he can go on the road and stick a dagger in the heart of Baker Mayfield and his crew. Give me the Buccaneers to win by a couple.

Pick: Buccaneers 17-14

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Full Browns-Ravens betting preview

Deshaun Watson is off the injury report and finally fully ready to show what type of quarterback he is. Unfortunately for Browns fans, I think the type of quarterback he is isn’t all that great. The Browns defense is tough, but the Ravens offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, with Lamar Jackson as a legit MVP candidate. If this game is close at halftime, it will be close all the way. However, if the Ravens jump out early as they have in some big wins this season, I could see this being a blowout. I’m tempted to take the Ravens to win but not cover, but I have a sneaky suspicion Baltimore will turn this one into a blowout, even with Watson under center.

Pick: Ravens 33-17

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)

Full Texans-Bengals betting preview

The Bengals are officially back, baby! After their slow start to the season, Joe Burrow and company are finally back to the place they ended last season, embarrassing the Bills in a nationally televised game. With Burrow and Chase connecting like last season, Joe Mixon still being an underrated runner, and Lou Anarumo’s defense even better than last year, Cincy is once again a Super Bowl contender. CJ Stroud was great last week and is still the Rookie of the Year, but the Texans are still a ways away from the Bengals as a team.

Pick: Bengals 27-20

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Full Packers-Steelers betting preview

I don’t want to pick the Steelers. I really don’t. It's because I have no faith in Kenny Pickett for most of the game, and George Pickens — while extremely talented — is looking like the next diva wide receiver after his complaints following the team’s Week 9 win. In the end, I am going to pick Pittsburgh because I actually have more faith in Pickett (and the Steelers defense) than in Jordan Love, and Mike Tomlin just keeps finding ways to win no matter what his team’s deficiencies are. I’ll probably end up sweating this pick out as much, if not more, than any other one in this NFL Week 10 picks, predictions, and odds column, but give me the Steelers.

Pick: Steelers 23-17

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Full Falcons-Cardinals betting preview

If Arthur Smith spent as much time coming up with plays to get Bijan Robinson the ball as he does coming up with excuses for why he doesn’t give Robinson the ball more, the Falcons would be in a much better spot. Even with the criminal underuse of the most exciting rookie back since Saquon Barkley, the Falcons are still better than the Cardinals. If Kyler Murray, who returned to practice this week, gets the start, this could be a different story, but for now, I’ll take the Falcons on the road.

Pick: Falcons 14-10

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Full Lions-Chargers betting preview

With Austin Ekeler finally back and fully healthy, the Chargers looked dangerous once again against the Jets on Monday night. That said, the Jets offense is atrocious, and if they scored points at even an average rate, Justin Herbert and company could have been in trouble. The Lions are coming off a bye and should be ready to bite some kneecaps after a week off. Plus, the SoFi Stadium fans should be filled with Honolulu blue jerseys, with Detroit fans getting behind their best football team in years. The Lions should win this game somewhat comfortably as they continue their improbable chase of the NFC crown and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

Pick: Lions 28-21

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-17.5)

Full Giants-Cowboys betting preview

The last time these two teams met on opening weekend, you could have adjusted the spread to -39.5, and the Cowboys still would have covered. That said, this is a ton of points to give up in a divisional game, even with Tommy Devito at quarterback. Dallas is a snowball rolling downhill, though, and while I still don’t trust Dak Prescott in close games against good teams, I do trust the Cowboys defense to absolutely dominate a bad team with a bad offensive line like the Giants. This will get ugly early and never get better until the final whistle blows. I will give the G Men three more points than last time, though, in this NFL Week 10 picks, prediction, and odds column.

Pick: Cowboys 40-3

Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)

Full Commanders-Seahawks betting preview

The last we saw the Seahawks, they were getting their Super Bowl contender dreams crushed by the Baltimore Ravens. This week they must find a way to rebound against the Commanders, especially with a brutal stretch of their schedule coming up from Thanksgiving to Christmas. Washington is a strange team that seems to play to the level of their competition each week, for better or worse. Going into Seattle with a ticked-off team on the other side of the field doesn’t seem ideal, but my guess is Sam Howell and the offense will be able to keep pace with Geno Smith and his crew enough to keep this close. The Seahawks should still win this game in the end, but it should be more by a field goal than a touchdown.

Pick: Seahawks 27-24

New York Jets (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders

Full Jets-Raiders betting preview

The Raiders got the new coach bump last week and destroyed the Giants after Josh McDaniels got the boot. Afterward, the team celebrated with cigars and game balls for all like they had just won the Super Bowl. This new coach bump usually goes away after the first week, but it does seem like Antonio Pierce is a solid leader and McDaniels was an all-time bad one, so this Vegas honeymoon could last a little longer. I don’t love taking rookie QB Aidan O’Connell against the awesome Jets defense, but Josh Jacobs can dominate this game, and Zach Wilson is actually worse than the first-year player in the other huddle. Let's see the Raiders keep the good vibes rolling in the post-McDaniels era and take this one outright.

Pick: Raiders 14-13

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7)

Full disclosure: The author of this NFL Week 10 picks, predictions, and odds column is an ever-optimistic Bills fan who grew up in Western New York, which means that while I am still on the Bills bandwagon, those old feelings of doubt are creeping in. The Bills are a mess right now, and the coaching staff seems to have no idea how to fix that. If they talked about answers after their Week 9 loss to the Bengals, maybe I would believe. However, we just heard more platitudes about consistency and identity. The Broncos are coming on and coming off a bye, so they aren’t to be taken lightly. I still have faith that the Bills will win this one at home, but covering a touchdown-plus spread is no longer a given.

Pick: Bills 28-27

Establish the Pass Podcast Week 10 Predictions